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Old 06-02-2013, 05:54 AM
 
Location: Sarasota, FL
1,642 posts, read 3,173,408 times
Reputation: 813

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I will say it again: there is nothing standard or traditional about this collapse or this seeming recovery. The collapse was manufactured by greed and criminally poor regulation, and the little recovery we're seeing was manufactured by bailouts and foreclosure/short sales.

I don't think any of us really have any idea whatsoever where this real estate market is, and I think it is truly disingenuous and/or arrogant to try to pretend we do.

Even if any of this were truly traditional, the sample size is still far too small.

I would not be surprised to see another plunge, and I would not be surprised to see more recovery. But one thing is for sure: I would definitely not make any important life decisions based upon what we've been seeing for these six months or whatever it has been.
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Old 06-02-2013, 12:03 PM
 
Location: Lakewood Ranch, FL
5,648 posts, read 9,979,418 times
Reputation: 6871
Nothing would surprise me, too...in either direction. I tend to be far more cautious than risky but the problem is that nearly every life decision is a statement of "faith" in the sense that the choices we make are made based on what we know, what we believe we know, and our best guess about the future. If we expect guarantees in these matters, we are S-O-L because there are none. Waiting until we have the ideal amount of data (whatever and whenever that may be) before pulling the trigger still results in no more certain a decision than at any other time. You can live your entire life without ever finding the perfect moment.
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Old 06-02-2013, 01:26 PM
 
Location: Sarasota, FL
1,642 posts, read 3,173,408 times
Reputation: 813
Quote:
Originally Posted by bbronston View Post
Nothing would surprise me, too...in either direction. I tend to be far more cautious than risky but the problem is that nearly every life decision is a statement of "faith" in the sense that the choices we make are made based on what we know, what we believe we know, and our best guess about the future. If we expect guarantees in these matters, we are S-O-L because there are none. Waiting until we have the ideal amount of data (whatever and whenever that may be) before pulling the trigger still results in no more certain a decision than at any other time. You can live your entire life without ever finding the perfect moment.
While this is all clearly true, the sample size (duration of positive trend) of this event (real estate recovery) is still far too small to make any sort of decision. If you want to buy a house, buy one. Rates are low, and life's too short to sit around waiting.

If, on the other hand, you are looking to take advantage of what you perceive as a great opportunity in the market, I think that would be a decision made on woefully incomplete data.
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Old 06-02-2013, 05:37 PM
 
Location: Lakewood Ranch, FL
5,648 posts, read 9,979,418 times
Reputation: 6871
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rushmore View Post
While this is all clearly true, the sample size (duration of positive trend) of this event (real estate recovery) is still far too small to make any sort of decision. If you want to buy a house, buy one. Rates are low, and life's too short to sit around waiting.

If, on the other hand, you are looking to take advantage of what you perceive as a great opportunity in the market, I think that would be a decision made on woefully incomplete data.
I see your point. Absolutely agree...in fact, when people ask me if now is a good time to buy, I tell them that a year ago was a good time and last month appeared to be a continuation of the upward trend but who knows what is coming? As you said, if you want to buy a house, great...if you want to speculate, you'd better realize and accept the risks.
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Old 06-04-2013, 10:56 AM
 
Location: Verona, WI
1,201 posts, read 2,276,569 times
Reputation: 818
Just locked in 3.875% for a 30-year conventional loan. A bit higher than recent history but historically great. Plus psychologically better than 4%!

Wish it was for a house in a warmer climate, but hopefully next time!
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