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I am planning on moving there in 2.5 years when my sophomore graduates high school. So I lurk here to watch for trends and info in the meantime while waiting.
Not everyone in a retiree or looking to go quickly. I will be 52 when we move, and plan on working about 10 more years in the IT field.
This could never be more true. Workers of all ages are going remote and looking for better weather than the North.
I doubt there are any 1 percents on here. Those type of people don't have time or the need to d*ck around on forums and are out making money, finding ways to make even more money. Before becoming President, Trump was working 14 hour days on his various businesses.
Trump is a good example of debt though. His businesses have taken a huge hit since he's become President. He's got the lease for the Trump DC Hotel up for sale and a lot of other loans coming due. A lot of his properties are not making a profit right now.
Some top 1%'ers (in wealth, maybe not earned income anymore) are retired or semi-retired, so could be here. Many are very quiet about their wealth.
The minimum top 1% in net worth is $11.1M. I'm thinking we have a few here that have that much. If you have built a successful business and sold it, you may have that kind of wealth. Some may have $11.1M on paper, but not just sitting around liquid. Most developers have that kind of wealth invested.
Some top 1%'ers (in wealth, maybe not earned income anymore) are retired or semi-retired, so could be here. Many are very quiet about their wealth.
The minimum top 1% in net worth is $11.1M. I'm thinking we have a few here that have that much. If you have built a successful business and sold it, you may have that kind of wealth. Some may have $11.1M on paper, but not just sitting around liquid. Most developers have that kind of wealth invested.
But how long will that wealth last though? A lot of business owners work and executives into their 60s and beyond, some over 50 hours a week. My uncle own a successful HVAC business and worked 50 hours a week until he retired and sold it at around age 72. It always seemed whenever they went on vacation or not there things don't get done properly with the service men. He'd always get there before everyone else to get the trucks loaded and ready for the day.
Sold it, they bought a nice sized house on a lake In Pasco County. This was right before the recession hit and they still had their Naples house on the market and they lost a TON of money in stocks, nearly all their wealth and went broke due to bad stock advice, and then the Naples house sold for a fraction due to the saturated housing market from the recession.
I guess to make the wealth last would be to have it in savings accounts and stocks and earn interest and dividends and live off the interest and have your house paid off.
But if you're earning $$ and retire before 55 and used to blowing money you could go through it quick if you don't change your lifestyle. Especially in these times.
If 10% nationally, I'm guessing 15% for us, due to our area's exceptional desireability, & continuing population growth.
Those buyers just keep coming from up North, and keep paying more & more, with no end in sight.
Interest rates are increasing now though, so the growth rates should cool down a bit. ~1/2 buyers here pay cash though, so the rising interest rates will not hit us as hard.
I never thought I'd own a million dollar home, but if the experts are right, I will soon.
If 10% nationally, I'm guessing 15% for us, due to our area's exceptional desireability, & continuing population growth.
Those buyers just keep coming from up North, and keep paying more & more, with no end in sight.
Interest rates are increasing now though, so the growth rates should cool down a bit. ~1/2 buyers here pay cash though, so the rising interest rates will not hit us as hard.
I never thought I'd own a million dollar home, but if the experts are right, I will soon.
Shocked by the 10 percent nationally! It should slow though, especially for first time home buyers because of not only higher interest rates but inflation as well. The cost of everything is going up and wages are not keeping pace.
Shocked by the 10 percent nationally! It should slow though, especially for first time home buyers because of not only higher interest rates but inflation as well. The cost of everything is going up and wages are not keeping pace.
Their parents are more likely to be able to help their 1st time homebuyer kids after their own home values have appreciated so much, and the stock market rise since '08.
Location: Sarasota/ Bradenton - University Pkwy area
4,568 posts, read 7,435,392 times
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Until we find more of a balance between supply and demand, we can expect a tight real estate market with ever increasing home prices.
Builders cut their supply of homes being built dramatically after the market crash in the mid 2000's, increased sales substantially in 2019 - 2020, then dropped again during the Covid lockdowns. As FL opened up and dropped the Covid mandates, people started flocking to our state, with many wanting new construction homes. For a few months the builders were selling lots/homes at a fast pace. However, when builders were finding that they were selling out sections in 3 months that would normally take up to 2 years to sell, they put the brakes on new sales. Prices for building materials started spiking as well. Most area builders then went to "auctioning" off just a handful of lots per month. Some are instead building a limited number of spec homes and selling those each month.
Seller reluctance isn’t helping either. The shortage of available inventory is making sellers anxious about selling their current home without finding a replacement, and thus finding themselves homeless.
Demand has been consistently strong even though our international buyers have been mostly sidelined over the past 24 months. Going forward, those international buyers will start returning to FL, adding to buyer demand.
From what I am reading, most of the FL real estate analysts are saying that prices will continue to increase at least thru 2022 - 2023, although the pace of the increases may slow as certain buyers are priced out of the market. The same experts are also expecting rental rates to continue to increase as well due to high demand and low inventory.
As a side note, a certain poster on this thread, who often goes by 3 or more names at a time, has been telling people on this forum to stay away from buying homes here for well over 6 years, claiming they were overpriced and buyers should wait. In March of 2015 the median sales price for a Sarasota home was about $270,000. In January of 2022 it has risen to $475,000. Imagine if you were a buyer and listened to that person's advice back in 2015?
My opinion is that you know you're in a bubble when "talking heads" on Cable News are actually saying "we're not in a bubble".
LOL
This market rise was unpredictable UNTIL there was a WHOLESALE, ARTIFICIAL shift of "relocated ASSETS" from other states that was totally fueled by politics of a new regime (Democrats), tax policies of other states, violence in other northern states, INFLATION, loss of certain deductions, and the absolute FAILURE of Healthcare policies surrounding a totally unexpected and unplanned for so-called "Pandemic" and how the "pandemic" was handled in states such as NY, CA, NJ, Illinois, MD and CT.
The shift of population(s) was NOT organic - i.e. not to Florida, TN, TX and beyond. With this artificial "shift" came tremendously unexpected additional housing demand.
The additional demand from 2014-16 was NOT fueled by first time house buyers.
This ARTIFICIAL SHIFT of assets was even exacerbated by HUGE, large, and even small employers allowing many many execs and "worker bees" to WORK REMOTELY.
THEN, many of these "remote workers" decided they could move anywhere they wanted! (due to the false seriousness of COVID-19, and the ensuing panic and frenzy buying!)
BINGO !!!! then you get the increased demand !....duh
This increase in building and sales was NOT generic or even predictable using accepted means of analysis over the past 12 years.
ANYONE who suggests they could predict such solid crazy demand is LYING to you, or they are a lousy real estate sales person using revisionist history or self-congratulatory "20/20 hindsight".
It's an inflated, non-generic trajectory, again, NOT fueled by an onslaught of first-time buyers, which is the life-blood of the housing business and sectors.
You don't believe it's a bubble? fine, fine fine.....strap it on!, load the wagon.
It is unequivocally a SELLER's market, now.
SELL IT ----imho, yep I said opinion, but read closely what I stated above. I have no dog...I'm not a real estate sales person, most of whom enjoy the rise in prices....duh.
Go ahead....but the train has left the station. Will artificial demand continue? sure, pperhaps....people are stupid to pay these prices....lol....it happens all the time.
Find yo rainbow! but don't become "blinded by the light" - There is NO status in paying too much, you can get screwed anytime - now, later, or much later LOL
Until we find more of a balance between supply and demand, we can expect a tight real estate market with ever increasing home prices.
Builders cut their supply of homes being built dramatically after the market crash in the mid 2000's, increased sales substantially in 2019 - 2020, then dropped again during the Covid lockdowns. As FL opened up and dropped the Covid mandates, people started flocking to our state, with many wanting new construction homes. For a few months the builders were selling lots/homes at a fast pace. However, when builders were finding that they were selling out sections in 3 months that would normally take up to 2 years to sell, they put the brakes on new sales. Prices for building materials started spiking as well. Most area builders then went to "auctioning" off just a handful of lots per month. Some are instead building a limited number of spec homes and selling those each month.
Seller reluctance isn’t helping either. The shortage of available inventory is making sellers anxious about selling their current home without finding a replacement, and thus finding themselves homeless.
Demand has been consistently strong even though our international buyers have been mostly sidelined over the past 24 months. Going forward, those international buyers will start returning to FL, adding to buyer demand.
From what I am reading, most of the FL real estate analysts are saying that prices will continue to increase at least thru 2022 - 2023, although the pace of the increases may slow as certain buyers are priced out of the market. The same experts are also expecting rental rates to continue to increase as well due to high demand and low inventory.
As a side note, a certain poster on this thread, who often goes by 3 or more names at a time, has been telling people on this forum to stay away from buying homes here for well over 6 years, claiming they were overpriced and buyers should wait. In March of 2015 the median sales price for a Sarasota home was about $270,000. In January of 2022 it has risen to $475,000. Imagine if you were a buyer and listened to that person's advice back in 2015?
As a further side note, the man with many names is again screaming to sell - it is a seller's market. As expected prices in 2022 continue to rise. If you sold, you missed out.
The higher end Taylor Morrison models at Skye Ranch and LWR, but not the highest, are the SandKey and the Pallazio. Each are rather nice floor plans. I have been following their prices. Base SandKey price was raised from 597990 on 1/5/22 to 667990 today. Base Pallazio was increased in the same period at Skye Ranch from 634990 to 709990 and LWR from 563900 to 638900. $70,000 and $75,000 increases, or over 10%, in just five weeks.
As a further side note, the man with many names is again screaming to sell - it is a seller's market. As expected prices in 2022 continue to rise. If you sold, you missed out.
The higher end Taylor Morrison models at Skye Ranch and LWR, but not the highest, are the SandKey and the Pallazio. Each are rather nice floor plans. I have been following their prices. Base SandKey price was raised from 597990 on 1/5/22 to 667990 today. Base Pallazio was increased in the same period at Skye Ranch from 634990 to 709990 and LWR from 563900 to 638900. $70,000 and $75,000 increases, or over 10%, in just five weeks.
Again, I have no dog, I'm not a real estate sales person, who always benefits for a buyers paying more NOT less! lol
"If you sold, you missed out" ???
How the hell do you miss out taking a profit and putting it in your pocket?? You just decided to benefit directly REALIZING a GAIN ! of course if the market increased after your sale, so what?? the only thing you have is a UN-REALIZED gain perhaps....a gain only on PAPER, not putting cash in your pocket..
Soooooo, even if you didn't sell and the market increased, you really missed out as well because your "gain" is only in your head or just a book gain - nothing tangible! intangible gains really mean nothing - you have to borrow against it (another debt), or actually sell and close a transaction - otherwise you're BLOWING SMOKE.
You NEVER "miss out" putting cash in your pocket! Valuations are smoke and mirrors in real life.
What happens if you pay 500k for a house and in 6mos, you can get 450k for the house, did you 'miss out', did you 'realize' a loss??
I never understood why some people actually bristle and become angry about differing OPINIONS...It's really somewhat odd. Express yours, I express mine, and I certainly don't become "personal" or indignant or intimidated. Some people it seems are messed up lol
Last edited by AaronDavidSchultz; 02-12-2022 at 12:28 PM..
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