Is Sarasota in a bubble (Miami, Tampa: home equity, lawyer, big house)

[Kadonny]

Originally Posted by MOforthewin

I guess that's why there is a lot of multi million dollar homes for sale in Naples area. Granted, these don't move in a week like normal houses. They can still take months and price slashing I see but they're still make a lot of money. Like these 10 million dollar homes. If the owner is a doctor who bought it for 3.5 million they're making a huge profile for example.

Talk about a huge profit, check this one out. Look at the sales history, it's unbelievable.

https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...?ex=2941816017

[MattMN]

Originally Posted by Kadonny

Talk about a huge profit, check this one out. Look at the sales history, it's unbelievable.

https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...?ex=2941816017

There is no sales history. The $5m in 2014 was just for the lot, or maybe an old home that was torn down. If you look closely, the 'year built' on this home is 2018. So it's a brand newish home. And $35M is only the 'asking price'; no guarantee they even get $10M for it. Gotta look at those things closely, if you're really making comparisons.

[Trying941]

Originally Posted by Jensen440

Supposition:


Would those "talented and gifted" buyers of say, 2 to 4 years ago, whose alleged house values have "doubled", buy the SAME house today the first quarter of 2022, for the current inflated offering price?


If those "talented, brilliant, and gifted" same purchasers say "no", then they might be intellectually dishonest about believing in the current alleged positive market trajectory. If they say "yes", they are consistent.


Many experts agree the market is "fully priced" in key segments. That's why lots of smart people have been cashing out of existing housing. That doesn't seem like a dumb thing to do at this point some would say.

Shecky, your multiple persona each have the mentality of a commodities trader. That is not meant as an insult. It is an observation based upon your claim that you were a lumber futures trader at Goldman. You treat homes like lumber. For example, you claim you owned a second home and sold it to a sucker from up north.

Your world view does not work for most people because their home is their only home. If they sell it, they have to either buy another or rent. Neither option is very attractive right now.

In And Out is a respected trading strategy, but “cashing out” is not for your residence if you want to keep your wife and kids.

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by MattMN

There is no sales history. The $5m in 2014 was just for the lot, or maybe an old home that was torn down. If you look closely, the 'year built' on this home is 2018. So it's a brand newish home. And $35M is only the 'asking price'; no guarantee they even get $10M for it. Gotta look at those things closely, if you're really making comparisons.

I agree, but even in this case they will still make a big profit even if it sold for 30 million.


Anyway, regarding that house that too is tacky as F! Like I said in another post it looks like those expensive homes you see in the LA area going for multi millions. Plus that house and sandwiched into that lot.


Even a cat3 hurricane would flood that house and it would be history.


but you're correct they won't get asking price. These homes are in a different league. Even right now they take months and months to sell sometimes. It's not a 400k a home with multiple bids.


These homes on the water you see in Naples for 5 million plus Don't appeal much. Notice how they're all crammed in so close to your neighbor. If I'm spending 15 million on a house I don't want my neighbor on top of me! You don't get much of a yard in Port Royal they cram them in.


But these houses you see a lot on the water in the ritzy area of Naples listed. These owners mostly own another house and simply are trying to cash in on the frenzy right now. That's why you see so many of them listed.


Even famous people are selling their houses for BIG profits while the market is hot.


Right now it's MUCH easier to shop for a 10 million dollar house than it is for a 400k a house.

[beach43ofus]

Originally Posted by Trying941

Shecky, your multiple persona each have the mentality of a commodities trader. That is not meant as an insult. It is an observation based upon your claim that you were a lumber futures trader at Goldman. You treat homes like lumber. For example, you claim you owned a second home and sold it to a sucker from up north.

Your world view does not work for most people because their home is their only home. If they sell it, they have to either buy another or rent. Neither option is very attractive right now.

In And Out is a respected trading strategy, but “cashing out” is not for your residence if you want to keep your wife and kids.

^^^ very well put. I sure am glad I was "a sucker from up North" (actually Atlanta is considered the South, but its North of here) 3.5 years ago, & bought a new home here for a crazy high price of $550k. Homes like ours are now selling for $1.1M in less than a week, to new suckers, whose newly bought homes will very likely be worth $1.3M by the end of 2022.

At some point values will decline, and a few buyers will be in the red for a while...but then it will recover....always does.

[joshan]

Our financial adviser told us that we should not buy this house at the time as we would be unable to move for 1.5 years and would be paying rent and mortgage. When we met with her a little while back she admitted how wrong she was. Not something you hear often, but when a property doubles in under 2 years, it is a hard investment to top!

[beach43ofus]

Originally Posted by joshan

Our financial adviser told us that we should not buy this house at the time as we would be unable to move for 1.5 years and would be paying rent and mortgage. When we met with her a little while back she admitted how wrong she was. Not something you hear often, but when a property doubles in under 2 years, it is a hard investment to top!

I'm jealous...took ours 3.5 yrs to double out here in the Cow pastures of Southeastern Sarasota County.

I just saw more new home builders raised their prices again this week, so if there is a bubble, its still growing ,but little slower now.

[AaronDavidSchultz]

OO Houses aren't generally considered an investment, sorry.


It's an investment (positive) if you only REALIZE the gain, or take another debt out on the property. Otherwise it's pure paper gain, period, full stop.


By the bye, you'll never ever own a house free and clear....ever. You simply have "title" to the property. There is a perpetual lien against your "phantom", so-called "investment".


Willful or intentional ignorance cracks me up ....even with otherwise non kool-aid drinkers.


Being lucky should never be confused with brain-power. Idiots in Vegas can "make money".

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

I'm jealous...took ours 3.5 yrs to double out here in the Cow pastures of Southeastern Sarasota County.

I just saw more new home builders raised their prices again this week, so if there is a bubble, its still growing ,but little slower now.

So what happens eventually if they keep going up and up to where only millionaires can buy houses? All become renters?

[Trying941]

Originally Posted by MOforthewin

So what happens eventually if they keep going up and up to where only millionaires can buy houses? All become renters?

Good question. Let us discuss nationwide first.

Historically, homes sell for about five times average income. Lending practices tend to compel this relationship, but do keep in mind that lower interest rates increase that ratio.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/8s...77&offer_id=10

At the moment, low interest rates and limited supply have pushed that ratio to seven times average income.

In ordinary circumstances, one would expect interest rates to rise and the market to revert back to the historic ratio of five.

There are several factors that may affect how quickly that will occur. If the supply of new homes remain low because of supply issues, prices will likely remain up for as long as their are shortages.

But, the odds are this reverts and homes will be affordable nationally.

Now, let us talk local. Important to remember that we are witnessing a massive migration to Florida and Texas caused by a shift to work at home and baby boomers retiring - not to mention politics in San Francisco, LA, Chicago, New York, Philadelphia and elsewhere. Local prices are well under five times the income or assets of these people. Prices here are likely to rise to the level these people can afford.