Is Sarasota in a bubble (Bradenton, Rio: promotional, closing costs, shopper)

[kramco]

A followup to the posting about looking for a home inspector:

We backed out of the deal and will not be buying that home. I am very relieved. But not because of advise about a coming bust in housing prices. I’m relieved because on a second walk through, I went from liking it to realizing it wasn’t a very nice place at all. Fairly priced for this housing market - at this time - but the wrong home for us.

With that out of the way, here are my thoughts about Florida home prices. And I will admit that I am totally naive about real estate, economics, finance and particularly Florida’s economic and real estate history. >>> THIS TIME IT’S DIFFERENT. There have always been boom and busts in real estate and from what little I know compared to you guys it seems Florida has had extreme versions of that. So buying a kind of crappy $450K home in this market could possibly end up falling back to its $175K price that it was selling for four or five years ago. That certainly could happen. But THIS TIME REEALLLY IS DIFFERENT. (and just in case it needs to be said for some, I am aware that that statement is always used as an example of suckers). It’s going to be different than all past cycles I’ve been seen throughout my life because serious fundamentals that support the cycles are completely changed.

This economic cycle is coming at the end of our country’s dominance in the world. We are under great threat from other forces all working to destroy the US from without, but mostly from within. The America I grew up in is gone. This time is different because our leaders in DC are doing things purposely to weaken the country/economy with goals to change the economic system. And frankly we don't have the intelligence anymore to lead the world in tech and industry.

So for some us practically any piece of real property at any price seems better than the virtual assets we have in portfolios based on an economy that has never been hundreds of trillions of dollars (now becoming worthless) in debt. Selling out of the market and buying into real estate is driving some of this housing market. I know it is part of my sense of urgency to buy rather than rent while we are enjoying Venice. With that said, that home we backed out of, we did it because we couldn’t see enjoying living there because of the layout of the home, not the price or any worry that we are buying at the top of the market.

[Sunshine Rules]

April MLS statistics from our local Board of Realtors.

[Carpenter858]

Originally Posted by Jensen440

Dumbazz, gray-haired "GrandMa", er the Secretary of the Treasury FINALLY


publicly admitted yesterday that she made a MISTAKE declaring that inflation would be


"TRANSITORY" ( she screamed late last year that it would be temporary )







What a foolish, dumb, out of touch of reality, so-called, econ/market-savvy EXPERT.




It's like folks who believe that these housing prices are not backing off, or even will back off





Yep, in my OPINION, the market is a SHORT. The Fed is going to put more shockwaves in the housing market.


By the way, any local and longterm resident of this area KNOWS that the area is much much less "snowbird". It's not Myrtle Beach. These people now are mostly becoming fulltime residents - moreso in Manatee.


Just wait, in a couple of weeks. Watch the Fed, Watch the bonds - they will tell you the absolute truth about trajectory.


Again, my opinion based on my own experience. GrandMa was/is wrong....I have been proven to be far more correct. We shall see. Don't watch the stock market. The stock market is never the economy - never.

I agree, the clown Grandma ( I like to call her a Sleestak, from Land of the Lost). She's a true dumbazz. I've worked for the Treasury for 2 years and been on a Zoom call with her. Dumb as a box of rocks. Been that way for a while with her, but you fail up when you're a Demonrat. She totally missed the housing bubble.

Janet Yellen completely missed the housing bubble | OC Housing News

While I potentially agree with you that housing could decline and likely will as rates continue their upward path, the percentage decline will be interesting to see. I remember people in 2006 here in Ca, just hoping for a soft landing, which obviously didn't happen. The positive sign is that good properties within 2-3 miles of the beach in SoCal only declined 15-20% at most. While inland prices declined 50%. Also, newer developments even close to the beach declined 30%+ due to the investors that put little to no money down. My mother lives in Daytona Beach, and I remember prices there dropped by at least 50%, but now at least her place is almost double what it sold for in 2005. I know this is the Sarasota area, but I haven't followed Sarasota/Tampa until a year or so ago, and when we looked at a few places when we visited in April.

Will be interesting to see what happens. I know I'm waiting this out to see what happens before buying a retirement home hopefully close to the trough in 3-5 years as it takes that long typically to get to the bottom. Maybe also getting the dead cat bounce for a year or two along the way. I'm just not expecting that large of a decline at this moment, unless metrics change dramatically over the next year. I don't think just an increase in rates will result in a 20% decline unless there is another external factor. But, we'll see.

[Sunshine Rules]

Property values soar in Sarasota County

https://www.yoursun.com/englewood/ne...9c0db6882.html


On the eve of the Memorial Day weekend, Property Appraiser Bill Furst released the preliminary property valuations for the county ahead of the June 1 deadline.


For the county as a whole, the valuations came in a $81.8 billion, an increase of almost 17% from the final certified valuations of $70.1 billion in 2021.

Preliminary taxable valuations in North Port trended higher as well, showing $7.2 billion according to the estimate. That was an increase of 24.5% over the $5.8 billion final certified value for 2021.

Property values in Venice, according to the estimate, also were higher coming in at $5.7 billion, an 18% increase over 2021’s $4.8 billion final certified values.


The final valuations will be released by Furst on July 1.

[BeirksDentley]

I know Bill, and he's an elected hack who is a real estate agent.


Bill is also a Building Contractor....


Bill also has one company that develops Class “A” office buildings!


Talk about conflicts of interest? He has a vested interest also in maintaining or "boosting" appraisals. He has a "dog in the fight" through his numerous financial endeavors



Also I don't know of any graduate level academic bonafides in economics, macro/micro etc, so many experts may differ with some of his assessments.


Sarasota (and Manatee) has always been sorta incestuous to say the least! Just look at Benderson (bought the DT govt building), and of course Pat Neal (in getting zoning matters pushed through, getting variants etc etc).


Welcome to Sarasota/Manatee! don't believe the hype, we've seen this krap before.

[Sunshine Rules]

Received an email from a local builder this morning and to my surprise -- they are offering CLOSING COSTS CREDITS TO BUYERS. Definitely a sign of change to the market.....



Save Big on Your Brand-New Home!

Explore Newly Available Options Today

Don't miss this special offer – purchase a home at one of our exceptional communities through June 30th and we'll pay the closing costs up to $15,000!*

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by Sunshine Rules

Received an email from a local builder this morning and to my surprise -- they are offering CLOSING COSTS CREDITS TO BUYERS. Definitely a sign of change to the market.....



Save Big on Your Brand-New Home!

Explore Newly Available Options Today

Don't miss this special offer – purchase a home at one of our exceptional communities through June 30th and we'll pay the closing costs up to $15,000!*

never heard of closing cost credits. Even our cheap home bought in 2015 the builder didn't offer closing cost credits. Did get a 4k off veterans discount though on the house.

I think the whole home owners insurance debacle is scaring some people off too. It's all you hear from the media from Ft. Myers on a daily basis.

Is Louisiana and Texas getting hit with insurance problems this bad? They've been hit hard too lately by hurricanes. I know LA had some issues but nothing like FL.

[One_in_the_sun]

Neal homes did notify me by email too about the 15k closing deal.


Looks like the lumber prices are at a new low, perhaps that weighs in too.


https://markets.businessinsider.com/...pile-up-2022-6


Perhaps the prices will be going down some more in the near future.

[beach43ofus]

Some builders give closing cost credits for cash payers because it save the builder time and money.

[One_in_the_sun]

I thought they make money pushing their own lenders. The email didn't say anything about cash to get the 15k.