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Old 02-09-2020, 07:02 AM
 
Location: Free State of Florida
25,468 posts, read 12,580,588 times
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Southern Sarasota County is a residential construction job site. I think builders, develpers, and local government work together to keep the new home sales stats hidden. They want to avoid the blowback; the negative publicity, environmental activism, the anti-growth movements, ect..

I've seen it all before because I tend to buy in the fringes of the current suburbs in high growth zones...in between the suburbs & exburbs. Then, for the next 5-8 years, we watch the growth fill in all the open land.

By the time we leave, its mostly built out, the roads, schools, & parks are overcapacity, & the quality of life's falling.

It's still the best way to go because we've had access to big city offerings, w/o cost, crime, crowds, & traffic of city living. We've enjoyed new; homes, schools, parks, roads, retail, restaurants, ect..

The downside is the area evolution sweetspot is only 5-8 years in places like Southern Sarasota County. I'd say we are 3 years into it.
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Old 02-10-2020, 06:54 PM
 
20,955 posts, read 8,629,930 times
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Originally Posted by gg View Post
I have been following the market down there for years. My dad lives in Venice and I could relocate to Sarasota as I would have a job waiting for me. Last year I was really bummed the prices were so high, but this year it seems a little softer. Certainly not soft like when I could buy a home in Southbay yacht and Racket Club for under $200,000!!! OMG! Miss those days, but anyway, it seems there is a little more inventory. Wonder if people are getting tired of the red tide and people may think it will be very common now? Don't know just thinking out loud. At least I am seeing some homes for under $250K around.

Thoughts?
I think many of the stats are somewhat accurate.

Suffice it to say "used" houses in many areas have not appreciated much (low single digits at most). New homes, especially when built on a tear-down lot in a close-in location, have went up quite a bit and will stay up due to cost of construction.

I don't expect used houses to go up much - but I don't think they will crash much either. I've seen predictions from 1-2% up to 1% down.

In any case, none of these figures are large enough to move the needle much. You may be able to get the same house you could in 2015 for 250K....for $280K today. In a sense even 2015 was still recovering from the Great Recession.

There are always plenty of new people to replace those who found it too hot, too much traffic, too much red tide and such. There is basically no end to the potential market no matter how much traffic or pollution - one only need to look at Miami or other such places...lots of people in the world want sunshine at any cost.

Bottom line - if you are going to buy or more I don't think market timing is going to help as much as proper shopping.
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