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Old 02-21-2020, 01:45 PM
 
Location: Lakewood Ranch, FL
5,662 posts, read 10,743,344 times
Reputation: 6950

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The Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee came out with the latest stats for January. In a nutshell, sales for both counties are way up, prices are up, and inventory is down. Take a look...


https://www.myrasm.com/january2020/
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Old 02-21-2020, 02:10 PM
 
Location: Sarasota/ Bradenton - University Pkwy area
4,619 posts, read 7,539,060 times
Reputation: 6036
On the same page there's a link to the sales stats for 2019:
https://www.myrasm.com/single-family...ecord-in-2019/


People can actually look at annual stats all the way back to 2005.
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Old 02-22-2020, 10:35 AM
 
Location: Free State of Florida
25,737 posts, read 12,815,111 times
Reputation: 19305
Thx to our Real Estate pals for posting these results.

So much for all the gloom and doomers predicting rdtide (sp) and rising seez (sp) would kill this area. I predicted 2020 would be #1 in real estate sales and tourism back in 2019. I'll dig out my old posts after 2020's over. It could increase my cred.

Look at Lech's map in this link below. More inbound arrows pointing to Florida than anywhere else. The only reason the color isnt deep Purple is because we are already the 3rd most populated state, so our divisor is huge with ~22M people.

https://twitter.com/LechMazur/status...-scare-24.html

NOBODY's listening to the gloom and doomers warnings, so they are looking more and more like Chicken Little all the time.

Let the good times roll...until it get too darned crowded, and then bail! These are the good 'ole days.

Billions of tax dollars and nestegg dollars are flowing inbound with all these people. Florida's economy is in boom mode. The states they are coming from are hurting, and having to (or will have to) increase taxes on those who remain.

b-t-w I spelled a few words incorrectly on purpose. It's a test of mine.
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Old 02-22-2020, 11:23 AM
 
11,610 posts, read 10,438,435 times
Reputation: 7217
Quote:
Originally Posted by beach43ofus View Post
Thx to our Real Estate pals for posting these results.

So much for all the gloom and doomers predicting rdtide (sp) and rising seez (sp) would kill this area. I predicted 2020 would be #1 in real estate sales and tourism back in 2019. I'll dig out my old posts after 2020's over. It could increase my cred.

Look at Lech's map in this link below. More inbound arrows pointing to Florida than anywhere else. The only reason the color isnt deep Purple is because we are already the 3rd most populated state, so our divisor is huge with ~22M people.

https://twitter.com/LechMazur/status...-scare-24.html

NOBODY's listening to the gloom and doomers warnings, so they are looking more and more like Chicken Little all the time.

Let the good times roll...until it get too darned crowded, and then bail! These are the good 'ole days.

Billions of tax dollars and nestegg dollars are flowing inbound with all these people. Florida's economy is in boom mode. The states they are coming from are hurting, and having to (or will have to) increase taxes on those who remain.

b-t-w I spelled a few words incorrectly on purpose. It's a test of mine.
What "warnings" are being issued in the Sarasota area media or by the local sell-side (let alone buy-side) realtors, or by home sellers? Where ocean beaches are being inundated, do sellers and realtors tell purchasers how much conditions have deteriorated in just the last few years, let alone over past decades? At what point in Florida do eroding beaches become patent defects that legally must be disclosed to buyers?

https://www.theinvadingsea.com/2020/...to-restore-it/

How many realtors discuss red tide, sea level rise, or even rapid hurricane intensification over ever warming oceans with prospective buyers, and what do they say when they are asked?

What is happening to real estate prices directly in impacted and threatened coastal areas versus more inland areas?

E.g., home values fell on Siesta Key over the last year, echoing the slide seen in Miami Beach, according to Zillow.com.

https://www.zillow.com/siesta-key-fl/home-values/

https://www.zillow.com/miami-beach-fl/home-values/

Zillow reports housing market conditions in Sarasota as only "warm."

https://www.zillow.com/sarasota-fl/home-values/

Do home purchasers know that the NOAA projects as much as a foot of sea level rise by 2030 (sea chart linked in following article), and that locally in Florida due to thermal expansion and greater gravity as massive ice melts lower the gravity at the earth's poles? What impact will the increasing inundation of beaches and coastal nature preserves have on the desirability of coastal communities?

https://www.wlrn.org/post/new-sea-le...aster#stream/0

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/opinion...620-story.html

Do prospective home purchasers know that ice melt is accelerating in the Antarctic and Arctic as temperatures, especially ocean temperatures as oceans absorb over 90 percent excess heat associated with continued and expanding fossil fuel consumption, in those regions are accelerating above the melting point of ice?

Do prospective buyers consider the need for higher taxes and/or fees to build coastal infrastructure protections and to rebuild water, sewer and transportation infrastructure in anticipation of accelerating sea level rise?

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/...ng-seas/75747/

Do prospective purchasers consider the impact of rising insurance costs on Florida home values?

https://www.theinvadingsea.com/2019/...mpacts-worsen/

As sea level rise continues to accelerate, and as beaches and other coastal areas increasingly are inundated and subjected to erosion, what will be the impact on home values in coastal communities, counties and states?

What impact will the next red tide outbreak have on southwest Florida home values?

Last edited by WRnative; 02-22-2020 at 11:35 AM..
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Old 02-22-2020, 12:35 PM
 
Location: Lakewood Ranch, FL
5,662 posts, read 10,743,344 times
Reputation: 6950
I don’t know about Zillow’s info but I found on the MLS that Siesta Key last year experienced an increase of about 7% in sales over the previous year and an increase of about 3.6% in median price. To be fair, the maximum sales price in 2018 was $5.85M and in 2019 it was $10.5M. Certainly doesn’t indicate the concern you are presenting...at least as far as buyers go.
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Old 02-22-2020, 04:32 PM
 
11,610 posts, read 10,438,435 times
Reputation: 7217
Quote:
Originally Posted by bbronston View Post
I don’t know about Zillow’s info but I found on the MLS that Siesta Key last year experienced an increase of about 7% in sales over the previous year and an increase of about 3.6% in median price. To be fair, the maximum sales price in 2018 was $5.85M and in 2019 it was $10.5M. Certainly doesn’t indicate the concern you are presenting...at least as far as buyers go.
Zillow generally is regarded to have the best nationwide database of residential price transactions.

Here's what it currently says about Siesta Key:

<<The median home value in Siesta Key is $632,247. Siesta Key home values have declined -0.2% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 2.9% within the next year. The median list price per square foot in Siesta Key is $499, which is higher than the North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton Metro average of $182. The median price of homes currently listed in Siesta Key is $739,000 while the median price of homes that sold is $542,000. >>

https://www.zillow.com/siesta-key-fl/home-values/

Admittedly, very different from the statistics that you are reporting.

If sea level rise is accelerating, and becomes increasingly obvious with every passing year, don't you believe it will be reflected in current Siesta Key residential house prices as buyers and sellers begin to discount future risks, most immediately the risk from higher storm surges from more powerful hurricanes and the almost certainty of higher insurance premiums, especially for flood insurance?

The elevation of Siesta Key is only 3 feet, according to Google.

Do you believe that the state of Florida and coastal counties will pay for needed coastal infrastructure protection, or will this be the responsibility of home owners?

<<While much of that cost will be borne by private property owners, local governments will incur significant expenses to protect roads and other infrastructure. Things aren’t much better for Sarasota County, where the cost of new sea walls is estimated to be roughly $1.2 billion.>>

https://www.heraldtribune.com/news/2...ta-and-manatee

Are sea walls being erected now? As someone whose condo association incurred significant costs for erosion protection on Lake Erie in the 1980s, I can state that it's much cheaper to build protection before land regularly is underwater.

Is Siesta Key, like the Miami area, built on limestone? If so, pumping stations will be needed as well to remove water, and someone must may for the operating and maintenance costs of any needed pumping infrastructure.

Will road elevation be needed to deal with sunny day flooding? Will modifications be needed for water and waste infrastructure? E.g., will sewage pumping stations be needed to dispose of treated waste?

Do Siesta Key residences depend upon septic tanks? If so, are rising water tables making septic tanks ineffective? If so, residents will have to pay for sewers and new sewage treatment infrastructure.

Many concerns exist for southwest Florida prospective coastal residents, unless they are convinced that climate change actually is a hoax, a delusion that will become increasingly obvious over this decade.

This website has a Sea Level Rise Map Viewer that allows persons to see the impact of both different levels of base line sea level rise and of storm surges of 7 feet and above.

https://sarasotabay.org/sea-level-rise/

Currently, Congress heavily subsidizes FEMA flood insurance. What happens to flood insurance rates when this no longer is the case, especially for wealthy communities if the insurance subsidies are means-tested in the near future?

https://www.fema.gov/national-flood-...ation-guidance

<<NFIP has had to borrow from the Department of the Treasury to pay claims from major natural disasters. As of September 2018, FEMA’s debt stood at $20.5 billion despite Congress having canceled $16 billion in debt in October 2017. Without reforms, the financial condition of NFIP could continue to worsen.>>

https://www.gao.gov/highrisk/nationa...urance-program

<<Lehmann argues that the NFIP is fiscally unsustainable. Despite billions of dollars in prior bailouts, it still owes $20.5 billion to U.S. taxpayers, and its average expected costs exceed its expected revenues by $1.4 billion a year.

The report says that climate change will exacerbate the financial problem, as sea-level rise turns what once were 1-in-100-year floods into 1-in-10-year or even annual floods.>>

https://www.insurancejournal.com/new.../20/558919.htm

Last edited by WRnative; 02-22-2020 at 04:42 PM..
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Old 02-22-2020, 06:32 PM
 
Location: Free State of Florida
25,737 posts, read 12,815,111 times
Reputation: 19305
Quote:
Originally Posted by beach43ofus View Post
Thx to our Real Estate pals for posting these results.

So much for all the gloom and doomers predicting rdtide (sp) and rising seez (sp) would kill this area. I predicted 2020 would be #1 in real estate sales and tourism back in 2019. I'll dig out my old posts after 2020's over. It could increase my cred.

Look at Lech's map in this link below. More inbound arrows pointing to Florida than anywhere else. The only reason the color isnt deep Purple is because we are already the 3rd most populated state, so our divisor is huge with ~22M people.

https://twitter.com/LechMazur/status...-scare-24.html

NOBODY's listening to the gloom and doomers warnings, so they are looking more and more like Chicken Little all the time.

Let the good times roll...until it get too darned crowded, and then bail! These are the good 'ole days.

Billions of tax dollars and nestegg dollars are flowing inbound with all these people. Florida's economy is in boom mode. The states they are coming from are hurting, and having to (or will have to) increase taxes on those who remain.

b-t-w I spelled a few words incorrectly on purpose. It's a test of mine.
The test FAILED. I need a new screen name it looks like.
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Old 02-22-2020, 06:43 PM
 
Location: Sarasota/ Bradenton - University Pkwy area
4,619 posts, read 7,539,060 times
Reputation: 6036
“The Zestimate is not an appraisal and you won’t be able to use it in place of an appraisal, though you can certainly share it with real estate professionals. It is a computer-generated estimate of the worth of a house today, given the available data. Zillow does not offer the Zestimate as the basis of any specific real-estate related financial transaction. Our data sources may be incomplete or incorrect; also, we have not physically inspected a specific home. Remember, the Zestimate is a starting point and does not consider all the market intricacies that can determine the actual price a house will sell for.”

That's from the Zillow site.
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Old 02-22-2020, 07:13 PM
 
Location: Free State of Florida
25,737 posts, read 12,815,111 times
Reputation: 19305
WR, you have been missing out on some juicy E-threads on the political forum...

https://www.city-data.com/forum/poli...world-co2.html

https://www.city-data.com/forum/poli...-provides.html

I noticed you avoid this national forum..why? Inquiring minds want to know why
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Old 02-22-2020, 09:39 PM
 
11,610 posts, read 10,438,435 times
Reputation: 7217
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunshine Rules View Post
“The Zestimate is not an appraisal and you won’t be able to use it in place of an appraisal, though you can certainly share it with real estate professionals. It is a computer-generated estimate of the worth of a house today, given the available data. Zillow does not offer the Zestimate as the basis of any specific real-estate related financial transaction. Our data sources may be incomplete or incorrect; also, we have not physically inspected a specific home. Remember, the Zestimate is a starting point and does not consider all the market intricacies that can determine the actual price a house will sell for.”

That's from the Zillow site.
A Zestimate is an ESTIMATE of an individual home's value. While likely relying on Zillow's database that collects actual real estate transaction data, it has nothing to do with calculated home values based on transactions for a community.

https://www.zillow.com/how-much-is-my-home-worth/

Surely you knew this????

Last edited by WRnative; 02-22-2020 at 09:57 PM..
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