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Old 02-07-2021, 04:45 PM
 
1,654 posts, read 1,763,923 times
Reputation: 832

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Week over week we saw good-sized declines in new cases, the test positivity rate, and hospitalizations for both Sarasota County and Manatee County.

None of my indicators are currently suggesting the downtrend is nearing an end. However there are some fundamental reasons that suggest there is a chance of another uptrend this Spring. Namely the new variants are increasing in Florida. Also people might let their guard down as the case numbers continue to decrease. This needs to be balanced with the speed and effectiveness of the vaccines being rolled out. Right now I would rate the chances of a new uptrend in the Spring as small - although it can't be ruled out entirely. So to sum up - the current trend is clearly down - however if I start to see some changes in my indicators that would suggest the downtrend is in jeopardy I'll report on it in my weekly updates.

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Hospitalizations
As per the state data-base that lists hospitalizations with a primary diagnosis of Covid-19:

Sarasota County:

*December 27th = 123.7 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*January 3rd = 133.29 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*January 10th = 135.57 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*January 17th = 138.14 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*January 24th = 133.7 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*January 31st = 111 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
* February 7th = 82.28 Covid-19 patients hospitalized

Manatee County:

*December 27th = 71.7 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*January 3rd = 79.43 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*January 10th = 82.71 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*January 17th = 81.57 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*January 24th = 87.7 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*January 31st = 79.14 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*February 7th = 70.43 Covid-19 patients hospitalized

* Beginning on December 27th I report hospitalizations as the seven day average.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cases, Tests, Positivity Rate

For the week of January 31st through February 6th:

Sarasota County:

total positive cases = 644 (92 cases per day on average)
total tests = 14,785 (2112.14)
test positivity rate = 4.3%


Manatee County:

total positive cases = 835 (119.28 cases per day on average)
total tests = 14,528 (2075.43 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 5.7%

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For the week of January 24th through January 30th:

Sarasota County:

total positive cases = 892 (127.43 cases per day on average)
total tests = 17,443 (2491.86 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 5.1%


Manatee County:

total positive cases = 1174 (167.71 cases per day on average)
total tests = 16,884 (2383.43 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 7.04%

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For the week of January 17th through January 23rd:

Sarasota County:

total positive cases = 1104 (157.71 cases per day on average)
total tests = 18,037 (2576.71 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 6.12%


Manatee County:

total positive cases = 1243 (177.57 cases per day on average)
total tests = 15,441 (2205.86 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 8.0%

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For the week of January 10th through January 16th:

Sarasota County:

total positive cases = 1313 (186.43 cases per day on average)
total tests = 18,018 (2574 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 7.28%


Manatee County:

total positive cases = 1305 (186.43 cases per day on average)
total tests = 16,399 (2342.71 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 7.96%

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For the week of January 3rd through January 9th:

Sarasota County:

total positive cases = 1800 (257.14 cases per day on average)
total tests = 21,696 (3099.43 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 8.3%


Manatee County:

total positive cases = 1766 (252.3 cases per day on average)
total tests = 17,864 (2552 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 9.88%

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For the week of December 27th through January 2nd:

Sarasota County:

total positive cases = 1280 (182.86 cases per day on average)
total tests = 17,692 (2527.43 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 7.23%


Manatee County:

total positive cases = 1453 (207.57 cases per day on average)
total tests = 15,212 (2173.14 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 9.55%

Last edited by wondermint2; 02-07-2021 at 06:11 PM..
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Old 02-07-2021, 05:15 PM
 
1,654 posts, read 1,763,923 times
Reputation: 832
7,000 first doses of COVID-19 vaccine coming to Sarasota County next week

https://amp.heraldtribune.com/amp/4412746001

Sarasota County said Friday that it expects to get 7,000 doses of the COVID-19 vaccine next week and that those will go to people who are awaiting their first shot.

This as Florida gets ready to receive about 66,000 more doses than the 260,000 it’s been getting on average in recent weeks.

In Sarasota, the first doses will be administered at clinics Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

The county began notifying those signed up through its registration system Saturday about the appointments.

Those who got the initial shot between Jan. 8 and Jan. 15 should be contacted on Thursday about scheduling the follow-up dose.

By the numbers
As of 12:05 a.m. Saturday:

Florida: 1.95 million had been vaccinated. Of those, 627,235 had received the second dose.

Sarasota County: 49,636 vaccinated. Of those, 14,065 had received the second dose.

Manatee County: 32,370 vaccinated. Of those, 11,152 had received the second dose.

Waiting in line in Sarasota County: As of Feb. 3, vaccinations were scheduled up to number 7,474.
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Old 02-07-2021, 05:26 PM
 
1,654 posts, read 1,763,923 times
Reputation: 832
More contagious coronavirus variant identified in UK is spreading rapidly throughout the US, study says

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/07/h...us-spread.html

A more contagious variant of the coronavirus first found in Britain is spreading rapidly in the United States, doubling roughly every 10 days, according to a new study.

Analyzing half a million coronavirus tests and hundreds of genomes, a team of researchers predicted that in a month this variant could become predominant in the United States, potentially bringing a surge of new cases and increased risk of death.

“There could indeed be a very serious situation developing in a matter of months or weeks,” said Nicholas Davies, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who was not involved in the study. “These may be early signals warranting urgent investigation by public health authorities.”

Dr. Davies cautioned that U.S. data is patchier than that in Britain and other countries that have national variant monitoring systems. Still, he found results from some parts of the United States especially worrisome. In Florida, where the new study indicates the variant is spreading particularly quickly, Dr. Davies fears that a new surge may hit even sooner than the rest of the country.
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Old 02-08-2021, 05:21 AM
 
1,654 posts, read 1,763,923 times
Reputation: 832
Check out the videos of the Super Bowl celebration from the streets of Tampa (from the article below). Hoping it doesn't turn into a super-spreader event. We'll know more in the coming weeks...........

Buccaneers fans, mostly maskless, celebrate Super Bowl LV win despite COVID-19 warnings

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl...gs/ar-BB1du52d

Buccaneers fans throughout the Tampa, Florida, area were quick to take to the streets following their 31-9 win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV on Sunday night.

The problem, however, was that many of them did so without masks or social distancing— clearly ignoring safety warnings amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
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Old 02-09-2021, 06:47 AM
 
1,654 posts, read 1,763,923 times
Reputation: 832
Seniors will soon be able to get COVID-19 shots at Publix, Winn-Dixie stores in Manatee

https://www.bradenton.com/news/coron...249103865.html

Beginning as soon as Thursday, select retail pharmacies across the country will begin administering the COVID-19 vaccine as part of the Federal Retail Pharmacy Program. Florida is expected to receive each week an estimated 65,300 doses of the Moderna vaccine for 490 Publix, Winn-Dixie and Walmart/ Sam’s Club pharmacies in the state, Florida Department of Health officials announced to local officials in an email.

The locations will include 17 Publix pharmacies and one Winn-Dixie pharmacy in Manatee County. Each is expected to receive 384 doses per week — more than doubling the county’s current allotment, Director of Public Safety Jacob Saur told county commissioners late Monday.

Exact addresses for the Manatee County pharmacies to receive vaccine were not provided but include locations in Bradenton, Palmetto, Parrish and Lakewood Ranch.

On their respective websites, Publix and Winn-Dixie have information about how to make appointments for when vaccines are available:

Publix https://www.publix.com/covid-vaccine

Winn-Dixie https://www.winndixie.com/pharmacy/covid-vaccine
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Old 02-11-2021, 02:49 PM
 
Location: Sunshine state
2,261 posts, read 3,146,904 times
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So apparently Florida is leading the country in cases of the UK variant:

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health...us-uk-variant/
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Old 02-12-2021, 10:43 AM
 
1,654 posts, read 1,763,923 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by graceC View Post
So apparently Florida is leading the country in cases of the UK variant:

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health...us-uk-variant/
Yes, Florida leads the country in the UK variant. It's worth noting that article is from January 19th and at the time there were 46 known cases in Florida. As of February 11th there are 347 known cases:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ant-cases.html
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Old 02-12-2021, 11:00 AM
 
1,654 posts, read 1,763,923 times
Reputation: 832
The South African variant is now in the USA but not yet detected in Florida. While the variants are increasing I don't really see any threat to the downward trend of Covid in our area "yet" (according to my model indicators). IMO it's not likely that enough people will be vaccinated by Spring to provide a complete backstop to another uptrend. Whether or not we get another upward trend in the coming weeks will depend a lot on people's behavior. IMO the big Super Bowl celebrations are a cause of concern. But for now the downtrend remains intact.

South Africa COVID Variant Found for First Time in California, North Carolina and Illinois
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...is/ar-BB1dDghN

A COVID variant first detected in South Africa has been identified for the first time in Illinois, North Carolina and California this week, state health officials announced.

The variant, known as B.1.351, seems to be more transmissible than the original, although there is no evidence that it causes more severe illness. It has now been identified in six U.S. states, which have reported more than a dozen cases in total.

The variant has caused some concern because it contains two mutations that may reduce how well antibodies bind to the virus. These mutations could reduce the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines, although researchers are still investigating this.

Experts think the two mRNA vaccines authorized for use in the United States—made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna—should still provide good protection against the variant, even if their effectiveness is slightly reduced.

Some recently published studies appear to support this idea, although more research needs to be conducted.

In recent weeks, evidence has emerged to suggest that the South Africa variant reduces the effectiveness of vaccines from Johnson & Johnson, Novavax and AstraZeneca-University of Oxford, all of which have yet to be authorized in the U.S.

Experts think these vaccines should still protect against severe illness and death caused by the variant.
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Old 02-14-2021, 03:00 PM
 
1,654 posts, read 1,763,923 times
Reputation: 832
Week over week we saw good-sized declines for hospitalizations in Sarasota County and Manatee County. Keep in mind that hospitalizations lag new cases. Sarasota County also saw a continued decline of new cases and the test positivity rate. In Manatee County the decline in new cases was smaller while their test positvity rate actually increased.

Hospitalizations
As per the state data-base that lists hospitalizations with a primary diagnosis of Covid-19:

Sarasota County:

*January 3rd = 133.29 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*January 10th = 135.57 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*January 17th = 138.14 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*January 24th = 133.7 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*January 31st = 111 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
* February 7th = 82.28 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*February 14th = 60.00 Covid-19 patients hospitalized

Manatee County:

*January 3rd = 79.43 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*January 10th = 82.71 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*January 17th = 81.57 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*January 24th = 87.7 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*January 31st = 79.14 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*February 7th = 70.43 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*February 14th = 58.28 Covid-19 patients hospitalized

*I report hospitalizations as the seven day average.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cases, Tests, Positivity Rate

For the week of February 7th through February 13th:

Sarasota County:

total positive cases = 519 (74.14 cases per day on average)
total tests = 14,504 (2072 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 3.57%

Manatee County:

total positive cases = 818 (116.86 cases per day on average)
total tests = 12,863 (1837.57 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 6.36%

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For the week of January 31st through February 6th:

Sarasota County:

total positive cases = 644 (92 cases per day on average)
total tests = 14,785 (2112.14)
test positivity rate = 4.3%


Manatee County:

total positive cases = 835 (119.28 cases per day on average)
total tests = 14,528 (2075.43 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 5.7%

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For the week of January 24th through January 30th:

Sarasota County:

total positive cases = 892 (127.43 cases per day on average)
total tests = 17,443 (2491.86 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 5.1%


Manatee County:

total positive cases = 1174 (167.71 cases per day on average)
total tests = 16,884 (2383.43 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 7.04%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For the week of January 17th through January 23rd:

Sarasota County:

total positive cases = 1104 (157.71 cases per day on average)
total tests = 18,037 (2576.71 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 6.12%


Manatee County:

total positive cases = 1243 (177.57 cases per day on average)
total tests = 15,441 (2205.86 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 8.0%

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For the week of January 10th through January 16th:

Sarasota County:

total positive cases = 1313 (186.43 cases per day on average)
total tests = 18,018 (2574 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 7.28%


Manatee County:

total positive cases = 1305 (186.43 cases per day on average)
total tests = 16,399 (2342.71 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 7.96%

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For the week of January 3rd through January 9th:

Sarasota County:

total positive cases = 1800 (257.14 cases per day on average)
total tests = 21,696 (3099.43 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 8.3%


Manatee County:

total positive cases = 1766 (252.3 cases per day on average)
total tests = 17,864 (2552 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 9.88%
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Old 02-17-2021, 07:15 AM
 
1,654 posts, read 1,763,923 times
Reputation: 832
COVID-19 vaccine clinic coming to Lakewood Ranch this week

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.her...amp/6755862002

The state of Florida will hold a vaccine clinic in Lakewood Ranch for three days this week, according to the chairwoman of the Manatee County Commission.

Vanessa Baugh said Monday that the state will administer 3,000 doses at the clinic Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

These doses are in addition to the 5,100 the Florida Department of Health Manatee County already plans to disburse this week.

Baugh said the plan to hold the clinic in Lakewood Ranch began Friday when she got a call from Rex Jensen, president of Schroeder-Manatee Ranch.

She said Jensen told her that Gov. Ron DeSantis wanted to bring vaccinations to Lakewood Ranch “because he knew we were lagging behind in this area.”

Baugh said the clinic will be held from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday at Premier Sports Campus.

She said the state is providing the health care workers and handling the logistics necessary to put on the clinic. The Manatee Sheriff’s Office will help with traffic control, she said.

Baugh said that the state would use the county’s vaccine stand-by system to randomly choose who gets appointments, but said that those chosen would be mostly residents living in the 34202 and 34211 zip codes.
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