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Old 01-12-2021, 08:36 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wondermint2 View Post
Week over week hospitalizations, cases, tests, and the test positivity rate for both Sarasota County and Manatee County increased. These are the highest weekly numbers for this wave up thus far.
I'm seeing some early signals that some of the indicators I look at are starting to have the feel of topping out. Thus I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that the weekly stats for (January 2nd through January 9th) will represent the peak for this wave up in (Sarasota & Manatee Counties). I don't expect the numbers to come crashing down fast though - as we'll probably see a plateau for several weeks. But the acceleration to the upside will abate. Also keep in mind that hospitalizations and deaths lag new cases by several weeks so those 2 metrics can stay stubbornly high for several weeks after new cases peak.

Two big wildcards to keep an eye on: 1) Witin several weeks Johnson & Johnson will announce the results of their phase 3 Covid trials. Hopefully this vaccine will be very effective with only one dose. 2) Will new Covid variants render the efficacy rate of the vaccines lower?
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Old 01-13-2021, 10:39 AM
 
8,037 posts, read 4,631,899 times
Reputation: 1660
Manatee scheduling vaccinations for Thursday as Feds promise more vaccines for more people

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.her...amp/6636454002

Manatee began setting appointments Tuesday to provide COVID-19 vaccinations for 900 people who’d registered using the county’s new lottery system.

Manatee’s operation will be the first major test of the new system approved by the County Commission last week.

A spokesman said Tuesday that the county’s 311 operators would be calling people all day in order to set appointments for Thursday.

People who are randomly chosen get a phone call notifying them of their appointment. If they don’t answer, they get a second call. Someone who misses both calls is put back on the list.

The county urged residents not to call 311 to see if they’d been selected and said anyone unable to call back or accept the appointment is automatically put back on the standby list.

Manatee is using 900 doses of the 1,000 it received Monday for the vaccination event later this week. The remaining doses will go to health care workers.

The new system is a lottery-type system where people 65 and over who have registered either online or by calling 311 are randomly chosen and assigned an appointment.

As of Tuesday morning, Manatee reported that 95,600 people had registered to be on the standby list.
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Old 01-13-2021, 11:03 AM
 
8,037 posts, read 4,631,899 times
Reputation: 1660
Johnson & Johnson Expects Vaccine Results Soon but Lags in Production

https://news.google.com/articles/CAI...S&ceid=US%3Aen

Johnson & Johnson expects to release critical results from its Covid-19 vaccine trial in as little as two weeks — a potential boon in the effort to protect Americans from the coronavirus — but most likely won’t be able to provide as many doses this spring as it promised the federal government because of unanticipated manufacturing delays.
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Old 01-13-2021, 11:26 AM
 
8,037 posts, read 4,631,899 times
Reputation: 1660
Ohio researchers say they've identified two new Covid strains likely originating in the U.S.

https://news.google.com/articles/CAI...S&ceid=US%3Aen

Researchers in Ohio said Wednesday that they've discovered two new variants of the coronavirus that likely originated in the U.S. — one of which quickly became the dominant strain in Columbus, Ohio, over a three-week period in late December and early January.

Like the strain first detected in the U.K., the U.S. mutations appear to make Covid-19 more contagious but do not seem like they will diminish the effectiveness of the vaccines, researchers said.

One of the new strains, found in just one patient in Ohio, contains a mutation identical to the now-dominant variant in the U.K., researchers said, noting that it "likely arose in a virus strain already present in the United States." However, the "Columbus strain," which the researchers said in a press release has become dominant in the city, includes "three other gene mutations not previously seen together in SARS-CoV2."

"This new Columbus strain has the same genetic backbone as earlier cases we've studied, but these three mutations represent a significant evolution," Dr. Dan Jones, vice chair of the division of molecular pathology at Ohio State and lead author of the study, said in a statement. "We know this shift didn't come from the U.K. or South African branches of the virus."

"We are now in a period where the virus is changing quite substantially," Jones said. "This is the moment, as we're starting to see changes, where vaccination is being introduced and where the virus has been in the human population for some months, where we do want to be looking out very carefully for the emergence of not just single mutations, but new strains that have multiple mutations."
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Old 01-14-2021, 09:11 AM
 
8,037 posts, read 4,631,899 times
Reputation: 1660
Covid infection provides some immunity for at least five months, UK study finds

https://news.google.com/articles/CAI...S&ceid=US%3Aen

LONDON — People who have been infected with Covid are likely to have some form of immunity for at least five months, according to early results of a major new study in the U.K.

The preliminary findings in Public Health England's SIREN study — which has surveyed thousands of U.K. health-care workers in a bid to establish whether prior infection protects against future infection — found antibodies provide an 83% rate of protection against reinfection, compared with people who have not had the disease before.

This immunity appears to last at least five months, the report said. Reinfections in people with antibodies were rare, the study published on Thursday found, with experts identifying 44 potential reinfections among 6,614 participants involved the study.

However, the early evidence also suggests a small number of people with antibodies may still be able to carry and transmit the virus, emphasizing the need to follow coronavirus restrictions, Public Health England said.
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Old 01-15-2021, 06:21 PM
 
8,037 posts, read 4,631,899 times
Reputation: 1660
CDC warns highly transmissible coronavirus variant to become dominant in U.S.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...outputType=amp

The highly contagious variant of the coronavirus first seen in the United Kingdom will become the dominant strain in the United States within about two months, its rapid spread heightening the urgency of getting people vaccinated, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicted Friday in its most sobering warning yet about mutations in the virus.

In every scenario explored by the CDC, the U.K. strain, which British researchers estimate is roughly 50 percent more transmissible than the more common coronavirus strain, will account for a majority of cases in the United States by some point in March.

The CDC released modeling data to back up its forecast showing a rapid spike in infections linked to the U.K. strain. The agency said the emergence of these mutation-laden variants requires greater efforts to limit viral spread — immediately, even before the U.K. variant becomes commonplace.

The CDC report “speaks to the urgency of getting vaccines out. It’s now a race against the virus,” said William Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

The CDC model suggests that the level of pain and suffering in late March, when the new variant is forecast to be dominant, depends on actions taken today to try to drive down infection rates.

The emergence in recent weeks of mutation-laden variants has alarmed the CDC and the scientific community. Because the threshold for herd immunity depends in part on how infectious a virus is, the emergence of a more transmissible strain can prolong efforts to crush a pandemic.
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Old 01-15-2021, 06:53 PM
 
8,037 posts, read 4,631,899 times
Reputation: 1660
More than 40,000 in Florida overdue for second coronavirus vaccine dose

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/mo...se/ar-BB1cNoT7

More than 40,000 people in Florida are overdue to receive their second dose of the coronavirus vaccine and officials say it is a problem some experts said they saw coming.

Out of the nearly 850,000 people who have been vaccinated in Florida, almost 80,000 have returned for their second shot.

Most people are still waiting for the time when they can get their booster shot, but the Florida Department of Health reports that 40,661 people are overdue for their second shot.

“I heard there are some seniors balking at getting the second shot because they've heard that the side effects are worse with the second shot,” Seminole County EMS Medical Director Todd Husty said.

The second shot is supposed to have worse side effects than the first, and it means your body is doing what it’s supposed to do which is mount a defense against the virus.

Husty said the solution is educating people that getting coronavirus is far worse than the side effects.

He said the side effects of the booster can be handled with some rest and a Tylenol.
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Old 01-16-2021, 07:06 AM
 
8,037 posts, read 4,631,899 times
Reputation: 1660
23 die in Norway after receiving Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine: officials

https://news.google.com/articles/CAI...S&ceid=US%3Aen

Twenty-three people died in Norway within days of receiving their first dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine, with 13 of those deaths — all nursing home patients — apparently related to the side effects of the shots, health officials said.

Common reactions to the vaccine, including fever and nausea, “may have contributed to a fatal outcome in some frail patients,” Sigurd Hortemo, chief physician at the Norwegian Medicines Agency, said in a Friday statement.

All 13 were nursing home patients and at least 80 years old. While officials aren’t expressing serious concern, they are adjusting their guidance on who should receive the vaccine.

More than 30,000 people in Norway have received the first shot of the Pfizer or Moderna coronavirus vaccine in the Scandinavian country since late last month, according to official figures.

“We are not alarmed by this,” Steinar Madsen, medical director with the agency, told Norwegian broadcaster NRK. “It is quite clear that these vaccines have very little risk, with a small exception for the frailest patients.”

“Doctors must now carefully consider who should be vaccinated,” he added. “Those who are very frail and at the very end of life can be vaccinated after an individual assessment.”
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Old 01-16-2021, 03:24 PM
 
8,037 posts, read 4,631,899 times
Reputation: 1660
City of Sarasota asks governor for 8,000 vaccine doses to hold mass vaccination event

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.her...amp/4188278001

The city of Sarasota wants to vaccinate 8,000 people at a two-day event in February and is asking the state for help to pull it off.

The city has sent a letter to Gov. Ron DeSantis requesting he send enough doses of the COVID-19 vaccine for the two-day mass vaccination – and a follow-up four weeks later – that would be held at the Van Wezel Performing Arts Hall.

The letter, mailed Friday, was signed by the city’s mayor, interim city manager, several medical professionals and the director of the Van Wezel.

Hagen Brody, the city’s mayor, said there had been no response from the governor though it was likely that he hasn’t even received it yet. An electronic copy of the letter will be sent Tuesday.

A spokesman for DeSantis did not respond to an email asking if the governor was aware of the city’s request.
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Old 01-17-2021, 02:43 PM
 
8,037 posts, read 4,631,899 times
Reputation: 1660
Quote:
Originally Posted by wondermint2 View Post
I'm seeing some early signals that some of the indicators I look at are starting to have the feel of topping out. Thus I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that the weekly stats for (January 2nd through January 9th) will represent the peak for this wave up in (Sarasota & Manatee Counties). I don't expect the numbers to come crashing down fast though - as we'll probably see a plateau for several weeks. But the acceleration to the upside will abate. Also keep in mind that hospitalizations and deaths lag new cases by several weeks so those 2 metrics can stay stubbornly high for several weeks after new cases peak.
It's looking like my call for the weekly top in new cases occurring last week is coming to fruition. This weeks numbers saw a 27% decline for new cases in Sarasota County and a 26% decline for new cases in Manatee County. The test positivity rates for Sarasota & Manatee Counties also had noticeable declines. There was little change in hospitalizations as they increased slightly in Sarasota County while decreasing slightly in Manatee County. As I mentioned while I expected a peak in new cases I didn't expect the numbers to come crashing down fast to low levels. Also I mentioned that because hospitalizations lag new cases by several weeks they can remain stubbornly high for a while after cases have peaked.

Hospitalizations
As per the state data-base that lists hospitalizations with a primary diagnosis of Covid-19:

Sarasota County:

December 7th = 138 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
December 13th = 113 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
December 20th = 116 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*December 27th = 123.7 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*January 3rd = 133.29 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*January 10th = 135.57 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*January 17th = 138.14 Covid-19 patients hospitalized

Manatee County:

December 7th = 64 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
December 13th = 50 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
December 20th = 61 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*December 27th = 71.7 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*January 3rd = 79.43 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*January 10th = 82.71 Covid-19 patients hospitalized
*January 17th = 81.57 Covid-19 patients hospitalized

* Beginning on December 27th hospitalizations will be reported as the seven day average.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cases, Tests, Positivity Rate

For the week of January 10th through January 16th:

Sarasota County

total positive cases = 1313 (186.43 cases per day on average)
total tests = 18,018 (2574 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 7.28%


Manatee County

total positive cases = 1305 (186.43 cases per day on average)
total tests = 16,399 (2342.71 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 7.96%

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For the week of January 3rd through January 9th:

Sarasota County

total positive cases = 1800 (257.14 cases per day on average)
total tests = 21,696 (3099.43 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 8.3%


Manatee County

total positive cases = 1766 (252.3 cases per day on average)
total tests = 17,864 (2552 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 9.88%

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For the week of December 27th through January 2nd:

Sarasota County

total positive cases = 1280 (182.86 cases per day on average)
total tests = 17,692 (2527.43 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 7.23%


Manatee County

total positive cases = 1453 (207.57 cases per day on average)
total tests = 15,212 (2173.14 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 9.55%

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For the week of December 20th through December 26th:

Sarasota County

total positive cases = 962 (137.43 cases per day on average)
total tests = 17,617 (2516.14 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 5.46%


Manatee County

total positive cases = 1177 (168.14 cases per day on average)
total tests = 15,594 (2227.71 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 7.5%

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For the week of December 13th through December 19th:

Sarasota County

total positive cases = 1015 (145 cases per day on average)
total tests = 18,859 (2694.14 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 5.4%


Manatee County

total positive cases = 1332 (190.28 cases per day on average)
total tests = 16,574 (2367.71 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 8.04%

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For the week of December 6th through December 12th:

Sarasota County

total positive cases = 984 (140.57 cases per day on average)
total tests = 18,916 (2702.28 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 5.2%


Manatee County

total positive cases = 1042 (148.86 cases per day on average)
total tests = 14,446 (2063.71 tests per day on average)
test positivity rate = 7.2%
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