Sarasota is the 6th most overvalued housing market in FL (countertops, new home)

[beach43ofus]

Originally Posted by MOforthewin

I agree, but it seems they have ate some of the cost, especially when lumber was super high last year. The builders that already had the prices locked in who had to eat the cost because that was the agreed price to build the house. If the builder didn't have a clause in there for the cost then they had to eat it.

They took all of those dollars they ate, & added it to the price of the next wave of homes they sold, & are selling. They wind up eating none of these higher costs over the long haul.

They might eat some for a few months, but they eventually get it all back.

[beach43ofus]

Originally Posted by Hbcapital

The Kiawah model at Grand Palm, another Neal community, went up another 10,000 today to 739k base price.

Hbcapital posted the above ^^^ on February 9th 2022.

Today, February 18th 2022, just 9 days later, the price just jumped ANOTHER $15k!

I just looked, & now it's $754k base price:

https://www.nealcommunities.com/new-...d-palm/kiawah/


I'm sure the lot premiums and design center option are also going up, like the base price.

Neal obviously doesn't think the prices here are overvalued, because they just keep upping their prices, which has to mean they are still selling at the same rate, & have not met any price resistance.

Lets say, a buyer in this community pays $60k for a lot upgrade, & $100k in design center options, they are paying $914,000 total for this model....without a pool. Add a pool, and they are ~$1,000,000

I'll bet there are even more increases to come. If Russia invades Ukraine, prices on EVERYTHING will jump immediately because the price of energy will jump.

[AaronDavidSchultz]

Any big builder who doesn't understand how to hedge materials should NOT be in business.


Having said that, if you actually think publicly- traded mega builders are losing money on basic materials is an idiot - or they don't understand how these big players protected.


themselves 2 years ago - dimension, plywood, treated, pvc, concrete, oil etc etc...


Labour can't be hedged of course - these builders aren't losing a dime, they are betting on chump buyers moving to states like FL, TX, AZ and TN


Don't be a chump, don't fall for "all of our cost have increased"....er, yes, and HELL NO


I'm laughing

[AaronDavidSchultz]

Anybody heard of "forward contracts" ?


don't be stupid

[Floridaman777]

Originally Posted by graceC

FAU’s Ken H. Johnson, Ph.D., and FIU’s Eli Beracha, Ph.D., rank the most overvalued housing markets of America’s 100 largest metros monthly.

“If you’re buying a home in these metros across Florida, Ohio and other areas, it’s imperative that you know you’re buying close to the peak of the market,” said Johnson, an economist for FAU Executive Education within the College of Business. “The danger is that prices will soon level off or even decline, and you’ll be stuck in that home for a significant amount of time before you can sell it at a profit that makes financial sense.”

According to these economists, this area is 34.50% overvalued.

Here’s the link to the article: https://www.abcactionnews.com/news/p...ousing-markets

For more details from FAU data: https://business.fau.edu/executive-e...sing/index.php

This Ken Johnson idiot said the same thing in 2019. "sell"
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...=1000451419320

If you listened to these bums you would have missed a fortune if you sold!

[Trying941]

Originally Posted by Jensen440

missed a fortune? WRONG


What he stated was well before the so-called pandemic and people moving and working remotely which FUELED the location BOOM


Go back to sleep, the run-up is artificial to say the least....


It's a seller's market

It seems clear that AaronDavidShultz and Jenson440 are the same person using these two and other names to scare away potential buyers of Sarasota real estate. The posts all use the same style, punctuation and bombastic language.

During the time period that he/she/they have told people they were “stupid” if they did not sell prices have risen 10-15%. If you were “stupid” you were actually lucky or smart.

Most builders have raised prices substantially since January 1st all the while he/she/they said sell. And, now, you cannot even buy without winning a bid in many instances. The list includes Neal, Kolter, Pulte, Taylor Morrison and Toll Brothers. And many raised their prices again this week.

Don’t be fooled by one person hijacking a tread by making believe they have a prevalent view.

I have no idea if prices are going up down with any degree of certainty. No one does. But I can say I have several million invested in real estate and not planning to sell any Florida holdings. Real estate is historically a very good hedge during inflation. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...he-experts-say

[Sunshine Rules]

There's an interesting article regarding the housing market and Spokane that could as easily been written about what's going on here in the Sarasota area:

https://www.sfgate.com/business/arti...e-16931227.php



From the article:

Whether it’s Boise, Idaho, or Reno, Nevada, or Portland, Oregon, or Austin, Texas, the American housing market is caught in a vicious cycle of broken expectations that operates like a food chain: The sharks flee New York and Los Angeles and gobble up the housing in Austin and Portland, whose priced-out homebuyers swim to the cheaper feeding grounds of places like Spokane. The cycle brings bitterness and “Don’t Move Here” bumper stickers — and in Spokane it has been supercharged during the pandemic and companies’ shift to remote work.

No matter how many times it happens, no matter how many cities and states try to blunt it with recommendations to build more housing and provide subsidies for those who can’t afford the new stuff, no matter how many zoning battles are fought or homeless camps lamented, no next city, as of yet, seems better prepared than the last one was.



Unfortunately, coming up with more affordable housing is not an easy task and the wheels of government move slowly.

A new affordable housing complex, Sandpiper Place, just opened in Bradenton the other week. The 92 apartment leases went quickly, with over 800 people on a waiting list.

Sarasota county has been talking about the need for more affordable housing for years with little to show for it. Arbor Village, an apartment complex of mainly one bedroom units on Fruitville Rd, is under construction and will be leasing units in the near future, but we are only talking about approximately 100 units. A drop in the bucket.

By the way, housing is considered affordable when it is less than 30 percent of a families gross annual income.

[Trying941]

Originally Posted by Sunshine Rules

There's an interesting article regarding the housing market and Spokane that could as easily been written about what's going on here in the Sarasota area:

...

Unfortunately, coming up with more affordable housing is not an easy task and the wheels of government move slowly.

...

A new affordable housing complex, Sandpiper Place, just opened in Bradenton the other week. The 92 apartment leases went quickly, with over 800 people on a waiting list.
By the way, housing is considered affordable when it is less than 30 percent of a families gross annual income.

Good post.


The solution is to minimize the role of government. I know from working with Phipps Houses for many years and seeing first hand exactly how well they build and manage housing leveraging federal and state programs.

https://housingpartnership.net/about.../phipps-houses

Government needs to create tax advantaged programs and then get out of the way and let private foundations work with investors to build.

The federal Low-Income Housing Tax Credit ("LIHTC") Program is very successful.

https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/lihtc.html

We need more of this.

You do not have to subsidize to the extent that you make the rich richer. The subsidies need to be just enough to make investment in lower income housing a competitive investment. It can even be less profitable - as long as it is competitive enough to attract funding that would otherwise go elsewhere.

[Trying941]

Originally Posted by SylvieMarchande

The "only people" getting screwed? That is categorically a lie, and reflects a total lack of understanding of how housing prices that are out of control (meteoric) aka inflationary forces, and how they ripple through the macro economy.


Try to get a bit more educated, even about the velocity of money as well.


Out of control inflation in housing costs - single family, multi-family, and even commercial is no "party"
The above statement in bold is proven to be a lie. There are lies, and damn lies. This statement is both sorry to say. Nothing personal.


"Late to the party" is arrogantly offensive, especially to first time buyers. How your "Tesla stock" is, or has performed speaks volumes but has no bearing on housing prices in this area. Transplant no doubt.

It is clear that SylvieMarchande is the same person as AaronDavidShultz and Jenson440. All one person using different other names to scare away potential buyers of Sarasota real estate.

The posts all use insulting and bombastic language. Here, an examples of the insulting language are "categorically a lie and reflects a total lack of understanding" and "get a bit more educated."

This was one of the first posts using this new name, all today, and immediately it was insulting of another speaker. A classic tell.

They also wrote this earlier today "I hope not in Florida, we have enough over-crowding and way too expensive housing in this market!"

During the time period that he/she/they, using many names, have told people they were “stupid” if they did not sell prices have risen 10-15%.


Real estate is historically a very good hedge during inflation. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...he-experts-say. Maybe it will be this time, and maybe not. But, history is on the side of real estate.

[Trying941]

For those interested in a Taylor Morrison home at Esplanade at Skye Ranch or Azario Lakewood Ranch the builder is releasing 6 homes at Skye Ranch at 10 at Azario for highest and best bids. Offers are accepted February 23rd only. Bids are for home, lot and builder selected upgrades.

By way of example only, a Lazio at Skye Ranch lists for $597,900 without lot or upgrades. Bids start for the Lazio complete at $784,261. Most homes open bidding at about 30% above "list" and include lot and upgrades.

A Pallazio at LWR starts at $971,653 with lot and upgrades. Base price is $638,900.