Sarasota is the 6th most overvalued housing market in FL (Tampa: real estate, HOA fees)

[shallots]

I never pay attention to "experts" - especially Ph.Ds.

Yes, I'm a California refugee - just moved here a few months ago. My brother wants to move here as well as an acquaintance. I'm telling them both to hurry up and buy ASAP. This migration isn't going to end soon. Just about the entire south is going through a renaissance - TX, FL, GA, NC, TN, etc. Nephew now in CA is building a 4000 SF home in Dallas for himself, wife and baby, and his parents and his gramma (my mom).

There's the "Great Migration" or whatever you want to call this re-shuffling of people moving for better homes, better weather, better politics, better jobs, etc. Then there's the baby boomers, of which I'm on the tail end at 62. Many of us will be retiring in the next 10 years and looking to move. Businesses are also moving/expanding everywhere. I moved my business here with me and I'm hiring. California's loss.

Two CA neighbors on my old street have moved in 2021 - Idaho and Utah.

This new migration doesn't fit any models. It's a historical once-in-a-lifetime phenomenon. Ignore it and wait on the sidelines at your own risk.

[JPrzybylski07]

Originally Posted by shallots

I never pay attention to "experts" - especially Ph.Ds.

Yes, I'm a California refugee - just moved here a few months ago. My brother wants to move here as well as an acquaintance. I'm telling them both to hurry up and buy ASAP. This migration isn't going to end soon. Just about the entire south is going through a renaissance - TX, FL, GA, NC, TN, etc. Nephew now in CA is building a 4000 SF home in Dallas for himself, wife and baby, and his parents and his gramma (my mom).

There's the "Great Migration" or whatever you want to call this re-shuffling of people moving for better homes, better weather, better politics, better jobs, etc. Then there's the baby boomers, of which I'm on the tail end at 62. Many of us will be retiring in the next 10 years and looking to move. Businesses are also moving/expanding everywhere. I moved my business here with me and I'm hiring. California's loss.

Two CA neighbors on my old street have moved in 2021 - Idaho and Utah.

This new migration doesn't fit any models. It's a historical once-in-a-lifetime phenomenon. Ignore it and wait on the sidelines at your own risk.

Please don’t vote blue here, enjoy Florida.

[floridarebel]

At this point, what ones aren't over valued?

[JPrzybylski07]

Moved to SWFL from Chicago 7 years ago. What I see happening is a lot of the people that flocked here hastily the past year because of the pandemic is going to be in for a reality check in a few years. In 2-3 years these new transplants will realize just how long and oppressive our SWFL summers area, sure the first few won’t be that bad but they cumulate more and more until a few cooler months in the winter just aren’t enough reprieve anymore.

This hot seller market will eventually swing back to a being a buyer’s market, it always does. No one can predict what unforeseen forces like a pandemic are on the horizon again but I think a lot of people are going to miss the north, miss the change of seasons (eventually) and move back or somewhere half way back like the Carolina’s, Tennessee, GA, etc.

The summers are great here if you live within a few miles of the beach, beautiful sunsets during that time of year here on the gulf side, nice tropical thunderstorms almost daily, definitely a lot to like and enjoy. Hec most people who live in Florida don’t even live the beach lifestyle. Anyways this new emotional excitement driving up prices for Florida the past year due to the pandemic will ware off eventually.

[TimDaCodet]

These were university professors, those who can, do; those who can’t, teach.

[TimDaCodet]

Originally Posted by City Guy997S

I met with a new financial planner yesterday. Nice guy, 20 yrs in the industry, over a billion under his management.

He kept referencing the 70's inflation during our meeting. 2 things did great in the 70's (real estate and commodities). Unlike the 08-09 crash (shaky financing, stock market wobble) this time around inflation is going to crush people and their future buying power.

So if you buy the home, it will rise in value because inflation will ensure you can't build that same house again for less money!
Lets say 2000 sq ft, you paid 400K ($200 a square foot). Now today, you buy the lot for $75000, that leaves you $325,000 to build your new home @ $162.50 a square foot. Can't do it today at that price so why would you think you can in 5 more years? Look at the price of lumber, the price of PVC pipe, the price of labor!

You think interest rates kill real estate? Remember in the 80's mortgages were 12%! My parents bought a brand new 4/2/2 car garage concrete block house in 1975 for 44K, 8 years later they sold it for 115K. How could that happen with crazy interest rates? The cost of the house couldn't be duplicated years later. That is what we are in for now.

Totally agree, great explanation. You house will always be worth at least roughly what it will cost to build new.

[joshan]

Originally Posted by JPrzybylski07

Please don’t vote blue here, enjoy Florida.

Don't vote blue or red, vote for the best person...

[JPrzybylski07]

Originally Posted by joshan

Don't vote blue or red, vote for the best person...

Not going to hijack this thread.

[beach43ofus]

Originally Posted by floridarebel

At this point, what ones aren't over valued?

Potentially, none of them. Every piece of real estate here could still be undervalued. Time will tell.

Most properties are selling above asking price, which also indicates we are not over-valued right now. I've seen homes sell for $50k-$80k ABOVE asking price in the past 90 days.

IMHO, as a non real estate professional, we are still under-valued by quite a bit. NYC and San Fran didnt get to $1,000+/ppsqft overnight though...it took decades. Its a roller-coaster ride of ups 'n downs, but the prevailing ride is upwards.

I can easily see our area's single family homes (non-waterfront) going to $500+ ppsqft before 2025.

My area in remote Southern Sarasota County is now pushing close to $375/ppsq ft for new homes, & I'm in the boondocks with feral hogs, deer, bobcats, turkey, & Florida Panthers.

The Lake Club, a high-end gated community in Lakewood Ranch we almost bought in, is now $630+. We made a mistake not buying there at $325 ~4 years ago, but we wanted to be closer to the beach.

Waterfront condo's in the city of Sarasota are now going for $1,250/sq ft.!

[joshan]

had a house popup yesterday on closed sales around me. They paid $625k 1.5 years ago and just closed for 1.15M. No real upgrades at all.