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Another factor why housing here is not over-valued is the persistent lack of inventory. New home builders are seeing supply-chain disruptions, which we all know about, but there's another factor in play that most do not know about...
Fewer people are leaving Florida! Used to be for every 100 moving into Florida, 75 would leave. The move-out rate has slowed, so that adds to the tight inventories. There are less "half-backs" now than before.
Most people do not leave Florida due to the Summer heat & humidity. They leave because they moved here when they were younger, & now they're hitting 80+, many are having trouble driving, and caring for themselves. Some lose a spouse, & feel alone. They need to be closer to family for support, so they leave.
For some reason, the "leavers" of years past are staying more now, which further constricts inventory, and helps drive prices further upwards.
Real estate experts do not see this market as overpriced, & do not see a pull back occurring in 2022, or 2023.
Moved to SWFL from Chicago 7 years ago. What I see happening is a lot of the people that flocked here hastily the past year because of the pandemic is going to be in for a reality check in a few years. In 2-3 years these new transplants will realize just how long and oppressive our SWFL summers area, sure the first few won’t be that bad but they cumulate more and more until a few cooler months in the winter just aren’t enough reprieve anymore.
This hot seller market will eventually swing back to a being a buyer’s market, it always does. No one can predict what unforeseen forces like a pandemic are on the horizon again but I think a lot of people are going to miss the north, miss the change of seasons (eventually) and move back or somewhere half way back like the Carolina’s, Tennessee, GA, etc.
The summers are great here if you live within a few miles of the beach, beautiful sunsets during that time of year here on the gulf side, nice tropical thunderstorms almost daily, definitely a lot to like and enjoy. Hec most people who live in Florida don’t even live the beach lifestyle. Anyways this new emotional excitement driving up prices for Florida the past year due to the pandemic will ware off eventually.
There's the still the snowbird contingent who go "home" during FL summers. The couple who bought the home next to mine are snowbirds from CO.
There are also many retirees who can afford to travel during the summer.
We visited FL many times before moving here and we have family who live on both coasts. Yeah, the weather is not perfect here in summer, but I used to own a second home in Palm Springs, where half the town shuts down during the brutal summers of 115 degrees F.
No place is perfect. Well, maybe Big Island Hawaii if you can stand more than a month there without feeling island fever, and do 't mind HOA fees of $2000/mo. Also, health care sucks there. We've already been to Tampa General to see a specialty department a couple of times - world class.
Another factor why housing here is not over-valued is the persistent lack of inventory. New home builders are seeing supply-chain disruptions, which we all know about, but there's another factor in play that most do not know about...
Fewer people are leaving Florida! Used to be for every 100 moving into Florida, 75 would leave. The move-out rate has slowed, so that adds to the tight inventories. There are less "half-backs" now than before.
Most people do not leave Florida due to the Summer heat & humidity. They leave because they moved here when they were younger, & now they're hitting 80+, many are having trouble driving, and caring for themselves. Some lose a spouse, & feel alone. They need to be closer to family for support, so they leave.
For some reason, the "leavers" of years past are staying more now, which further constricts inventory, and helps drive prices further upwards.
Real estate experts do not see this market as overpriced, & do not see a pull back occurring in 2022, or 2023.
The snowbirds who used to own my current house became unhealthy and needed to be close to family in CT.
As for the home builders, we looked into getting a new home but OMFG. The builders have had to throttle building, so they decided to make more money by jacking up the "lot premiums" by hundreds of thousands. One posh community wanted $650,000 lot premium. Then you have to wait 16 months or so for the home build.
So when you see the advertised pricing of, say, $400k-$500k, just know that you will be out much more than that after lot premiums and other premiums they're trying to squeeze out of you.
The snowbirds who used to own my current house became unhealthy and needed to be close to family in CT.
As for the home builders, we looked into getting a new home but OMFG. The builders have had to throttle building, so they decided to make more money by jacking up the "lot premiums" by hundreds of thousands. One posh community wanted $650,000 lot premium. Then you have to wait 16 months or so for the home build.
So when you see the advertised pricing of, say, $400k-$500k, just know that you will be out much more than that after lot premiums and other premiums they're trying to squeeze out of you.
LOL. So otherwords you pay to have a house to be built, overpay and then lets say the market goes down in 18 months and you could buy an already built house for much cheaper than this "premium" built one.
Moved to SWFL from Chicago 7 years ago. What I see happening is a lot of the people that flocked here hastily the past year because of the pandemic is going to be in for a reality check in a few years. In 2-3 years these new transplants will realize just how long and oppressive our SWFL summers area, sure the first few won’t be that bad but they cumulate more and more until a few cooler months in the winter just aren’t enough reprieve anymore.
This hot seller market will eventually swing back to a being a buyer’s market, it always does. No one can predict what unforeseen forces like a pandemic are on the horizon again but I think a lot of people are going to miss the north, miss the change of seasons (eventually) and move back or somewhere half way back like the Carolina’s, Tennessee, GA, etc.
The summers are great here if you live within a few miles of the beach, beautiful sunsets during that time of year here on the gulf side, nice tropical thunderstorms almost daily, definitely a lot to like and enjoy. Hec most people who live in Florida don’t even live the beach lifestyle. Anyways this new emotional excitement driving up prices for Florida the past year due to the pandemic will ware off eventually.
I disagree about the beach "feeling" cooler in the summer.
That's correct the air temp is about 3 or so degrees cooler in the afternoon.
HOWEVER when the Gulf hits 90 and even sometimes 92 degrees at the closest reporting station to me in the middle of July the heat index at the beach is just BRUTAL with the high dewpoint.
With the heat index it actually feels much warmer at the beach. When I go to the beach in the heat of summer like I described above after about 10 minutes I was just soaked in sweat sitting on the beach.
I remember two summers ago, 2020 was HOT. The Gulf near me was around 91 to 93 degrees on a regular basis. Just getting in the water was uncomfortable with the heat and no relief.
The most time you notice the cooler beach is like mid April. If you have a hot day around 90 here in Punta Gorda and go to Englewood Beach and the water is about 76 degrees it feels much cooler at the beach, about 80 degrees before the summer and the water heats up.
The Atlantic side, especially around Daytona the water in the summer is much cooler. More of a relief going to the beach.
I disagree about the beach "feeling" cooler in the summer.
That's correct the air temp is about 3 or so degrees cooler in the afternoon.
HOWEVER when the Gulf hits 90 and even sometimes 92 degrees at the closest reporting station to me in the middle of July the heat index at the beach is just BRUTAL with the high dewpoint.
With the heat index it actually feels much warmer at the beach. When I go to the beach in the heat of summer like I described above after about 10 minutes I was just soaked in sweat sitting on the beach.
I remember two summers ago, 2020 was HOT. The Gulf near me was around 91 to 93 degrees on a regular basis. Just getting in the water was uncomfortable with the heat and no relief.
The most time you notice the cooler beach is like mid April. If you have a hot day around 90 here in Punta Gorda and go to Englewood Beach and the water is about 76 degrees it feels much cooler at the beach, about 80 degrees before the summer and the water heats up.
The Atlantic side, especially around Daytona the water in the summer is much cooler. More of a relief going to the beach.
Well said, I agree but where did I say anything about the beach being cooler in the summer? Haha… you’re just assuming that’s what I meant, all good…. What I said specifically was referencing the nice sunsets in the summer at the Gulf. You’re right though the water and beach is no reprieve between July-most of August but taking a dip during dawn or dusk still beats swimming in any chlorinated pool.
Last edited by JPrzybylski07; 02-03-2022 at 04:45 PM..
Well said, I agree but where did I say anything about the beach being cooler in the summer? Haha… you’re just assuming that’s what I meant, all good…. What I said specifically was referencing the nice sunsets in the summer at the Gulf. You’re right though the water and beach is no reprieve between July-most of August but taking a dip during dawn or dusk still beats swimming in any chlorinated pool.
You mentioned the beach being great in the summer.
best time for the beach, minus swimming is late march thru early May before the water really heats up, or Mid oct when the air cools down and water temps come down a tad.
Seems when the water gets to around 86 degrees is when the air starts to become too muggy.
I can't imagine what it's like in desert places like the southern parts of the Red Sea or Dubai where the water temps are up to 95 degrees and a air temp of 100 or coastal Pakistan in the middle of July.
Due to the cool water right now, the high temps on the coast were about 8 degrees cooler than here in Punta Gorda. Basically how in Southern California it could be 80 degrees at the beach but 15 miles inland it's 95 degrees.
I guess my Wall Street trading career is showing...
The housing market in this area, is, factually overpriced based on too many metrics to examine here with a bunch of lay, arm-chair "experts".
Believe what you wish. If you want to buy one of these overpriced houses, then go ahead. That's your business. People justify bad decisions (financial) on a daily basis, because their emotions rule them, they become giddy and self-congratulatory. Fine. Knock yourself out. Be happy.
I know better. It's a seller's market...period...full stop. Stevie Wonder could see that, and you don't have to be a Bond Trader like me.
You think a 500k house is worth 1mm in less than 18 months? fine, strap it on ! The air gets thin at that altitude.
People love to whistle through the graveyard, it makes them feel secure and smart.
Oil is up 92.00. Inflation is real, not transitory. Printing more money is happening with the bone-headed program touted by Mr. Biden. American Rescue Plan...LOL
Politicians, all of them, are lying to you. The Fed is lying to you.
The Bond Market will tell you what is happening...not the Equity Market. Watch the Bond Market, and specifically the 10 year.
Can you say "stagflation"? Can't say when, but it looks like it might be around the corner
No markets go up in a straight line...but wait until Oil hits 100....lol
Don't believe ANY hype...Sell the rumor.
Again, most any fool .can see it's a seller's market - a very good one....then sit on the sidelines.
You want to buy?? knock yourself silly. Freedom. I know this: you never go broke taking a profit...period.
For me, I wouldn't touch this LOCAL market....sell? damn right.
Overvalued and overpriced are over used terms in real estate. They suggest that transactions are taking place among buyers and sellers at above some mythical "true" or "intrinsic" value. In fact, the true value in a liquid and free market is whatever the agreed upon price was without undue influence or external factors. In other words, the free market does not lie. It tells you today's value.
For those who are looking to buy in this region, please look at the number of sales and the number of listings in a given week or month. When listings exceed sales in a given period, it is an indication the market may be turning. That has not happened yet. When this happens for a month or two, and inventory meaningfully increases, then you have a stronger indicator of a market leveling off or correction. That has not happened yet either.
It is possible that rising interest rates and declining Covid rates will cause the housing market here to level or decline locally. But, it is also possible that this will be offset by a fundamental shift in the home/office work model - freeing more people to move here and work remotely rather than being forced to commute to a large city.
I am going to give potential home buyers here my current bell-weather for market conditions. It is the asking price by a large local builder, Neal Homes, in Grand Park for the Kiawah model. Over time it is as follows:
When you see the price increases stop, slow, or the price decline, you will know what this one builder with skin in the game is seeing on the ground in the real world of real estate where price matters, and not the opinion of self proclaimed Internet experts. It is just one indicator I use, but a damn good one.
Last edited by Trying941; 02-05-2022 at 09:22 AM..
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