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Even now, ~4 years after this upward trend began, many homes are selling at, or above, asking price in <30 days.
I've seen 2 nearby sell for $50k & $80k ABOVE asking in <1 week! Wowza...good for them.
Even armchair real estate novices know that means the market has been, & was hot through...yesterday.
Nobody knows what tomorrow will bring...nobody....not even the great Oz
A few here have been saying we have been in a bubble since 8/19 (for 2.5 years), & that buyers are crazy for spending too much. Nearly everyone who has bought around here over the past 2.5 years is ecstatic that they ignored them.
I have not seen any data showing recent sales at a loss...have you? I look at the real estate data sites regularly for recently sold properties, & they are all being sold at a profit...quickly.
I'm glad I ignored the naysayers 3.5 years ago when I bought for $550,000. I'm extrememly confident, based off comps, that I could sell for $950,000 (by owner) in <9 days from MLS list date. Other than plantation shutters, & screening in the lanai, we've made no significant improvements.
I have not read any real estate experts saying 2022 will bring a residential downturn in this forum area...have you? Could they all be wrong? Possibly, but very unlikely.
Last edited by beach43ofus; 02-05-2022 at 09:39 AM..
Even now, ~4 years after this upward trend began, many homes are selling at, or above, asking price in <30 days.
I've seen 2 nearby sell for $50k & $80k ABOVE asking in <1 week! Wowza...good for them.
Even armchair real estate novices know that means the market has been, & was hot through...yesterday.
Nobody knows what tomorrow will bring...nobody....not even the great Oz
A few here have been saying we have been in a bubble for over a year, & that buyers are crazy for spending too much. Nearly everyone who has bought around here over the past 4 years is ecstatic that they ignored them.
I have not seen any data showing recent sales at a loss...have you? I look at the real estate data sites regularly for recently sold properties, & they are all being sold at a profit...quickly.
I'm glad I ignored the naysayers 3.5 years ago when I bought for $550,000. I'm extrememly confident, based off comps, that I could sell for $950,000 (by owner) in <9 days from MLS list date. Other than plantation shutters, we've made no significant improvements.
I have not read any real estate experts saying 2022 will bring a residential downturn in this forum area...have you? Could they all be wrong? Possibly, but very unlikely.
There are other reasons why you are correct.
1. Supply: The costs to build new housing are rising. Labor is up 8% plus. Materials up 8-20%. The profit margin for builders about 20%. If prices were to decline, builders would be forced to stop or limit construction. They will not start a build knowing it will cost more to build than they can sell for. And that means, there is a halt mechanism on over supply.
2. Demand: Rents are going way up. Those who have rented in the past will buy if they can rather than pay a 20% rent increase. Those that invest in property will buy, as they can turn a profit renting. This is a new source of buyers that has not yet hit the market.
3. Supply: Almost every home being built is already under contract.
4. Supply: It now takes a year to build a house - supply chain and labor issues.
The odds on a significant decline any time soon are small.
Last edited by Trying941; 02-05-2022 at 09:58 AM..
Funny, Neal Communities is a known rip, for anyone who is a native/local. Heck I know Pat and even his wife while at Ole Miss.
His business model is to artificially "inflate" asking prices on each model (cookie cutter really) up and down the SunCoast. It's a slick incremental listing prices in each development to create an "urgency" for prospective buyers who "want in before the prices up next month". That's EXACTLY what the agent/sellers on the property/community getting "built out" actually tell potential buyers driving on the property.
The Company is a marketing machine....no doubt. Creating "buzz", "urgency". They live by the mantra of "if you can't sell it at one price, then RAISE the price". And the fools have fallen for this strategy hook, line and sinker.....people are sheeple....and Pat Neal found this out when he first built University Park.
There is nothing special about any of his "houses"....other than patently overpriced.
Using Neal Communities as a "barometer" shows naivete. I know their strategy in artificially pumping up housing prices.
He knows he can sell his "communities" and increase prices because people moving here are foolish buyers. We've talked about that.
Ask any native local successful Sales Agent in Sarasota/Manatee. They'll give you an earful.
If someone is a relatively NEW transplant to SRQ/Mana, they don't know what they're talking about in re "Neal Communities".
Better data can be sourced with national, publicly-traded builders like Lennar, WCI, Pulte, Toll and a few others.
Neal Communities is the poster child for this area's overpriced houses....again, I know him, he got his start here, and he practically "owns" Manatee County planning folks, along with Benderson.
I wouldn't touch a Neal Community for a variety of good reasons...not now...twenty years ago it was a different company in 2000.
Ask any longtime, honest RE agent about how they advertise on "specials" ...buy now before a price increase !
It works for meshugganahs who constituted the bulk of transplanted "buyers" in THIS LOCAL market over the past 10 years.
Any lucid and sober potential buyer who has lived here KNOWS that THIS LOCAL market is overpriced.
Some new jackaz from CA or NJ may think "oh man, this is cheap" and "I better buy now before prices go up" .
Funny, Neal Communities is a known rip, for anyone who is a native/local. Heck I know Pat and even his wife while at Ole Miss.
His business model is to artificially "inflate" asking prices on each model (cookie cutter really) up and down the SunCoast. It's a slick incremental listing prices in each development to create an "urgency" for prospective buyers who "want in before the prices up next month". That's EXACTLY what the agent/sellers on the property/community getting "built out" actually tell potential buyers driving on the property.
The Company is a marketing machine....no doubt. Creating "buzz", "urgency". They live by the mantra of "if you can't sell it at one price, then RAISE the price". And the fools have fallen for this strategy hook, line and sinker.....people are sheeple....and Pat Neal found this out when he first built University Park.
There is nothing special about any of his "houses"....other than patently overpriced.
Using Neal Communities as a "barometer" shows naivete. I know their strategy in artificially pumping up housing prices.
He knows he can sell his "communities" and increase prices because people moving here are foolish buyers. We've talked about that.
Ask any native local successful Sales Agent in Sarasota/Manatee. They'll give you an earful.
If someone is a relatively NEW transplant to SRQ/Mana, they don't know what they're talking about in re "Neal Communities".
Better data can be sourced with national, publicly-traded builders like Lennar, WCI, Pulte, Toll and a few others.
Neal Communities is the poster child for this area's overpriced houses....again, I know him, he got his start here, and he practically "owns" Manatee County planning folks, along with Benderson.
I wouldn't touch a Neal Community for a variety of good reasons...not now...twenty years ago it was a different company in 2000.
Ask any longtime, honest RE agent about how they advertise on "specials" ...buy now before a price increase !
It works for meshugganahs who constituted the bulk of transplanted "buyers" in THIS LOCAL market over the past 10 years.
Any lucid and sober potential buyer who has lived here KNOWS that THIS LOCAL market is overpriced.
Some new jackaz from CA or NJ may think "oh man, this is cheap" and "I better buy now before prices go up" .
Don't believe it, but do yo thang!
To those who are reading this thread, please ignore the bluster and look at actual sales please. People are buying the Neal homes at increasing prices. There is a waiting list. When you see the price increases slow, stop or prices decline, you will know the market has changed.
And, just to prove that the person who wrote this above knows nothing, here is the list for Toll Brothers - who the poster says you should look at - for the same period. Aragon model. You can use this to measure the market too.
1. Supply: The costs to build new housing are rising. Labor is up 8% plus. Materials up 8-20%. The profit margin for builders about 20%. If prices were to decline, builders would be forced to stop or limit construction. They will not start a build knowing it will cost more to build than they can sell for. And that means, there is a halt mechanism on over supply.
2. Demand: Rents are going way up. Those who have rented in the past will buy if they can rather than pay a 20% rent increase. Those that invest in property will buy, as they can turn a profit renting. This is a new source of buyers that has not yet hit the market.
Both very sound points...well done!
Does anyone think affluent Northerners will stop moving to this forum area anytime soon & bidding up our prices? Me neither.
RV'ers aside, they have to rent, or buy right?
Studies show that less people are leaving Florida than in the past too, so less homes are coming onto the market, & less apartments vacated.
Serious crime continues to escalate in many Northern cities, & police have been defunded in several major cities & counties. 73% of Americans are done with covid restrictions, so that too is forcing them to come down here...safety & freedom are 2 very strong motivators.
And, how many more blizzards can they endure, if they are retired & affluent, and can live anywhere?
Does anyone think affluent Northerners will stop moving to this forum area anytime soon & bidding up our prices? Me neither.
And, how many more blizzards can they endure, if they are retired & affluent, and can live anywhere?
Unlike your valid observation, As a native longtime resident, and unlike yourself, I don't think we really need more onslaught of any population. I have no agenda, but I'm not cheerleading and giving reasons/justifications/rationales/encouragement for more burden for The State of Florida.
Florida is under stress, and yes, people can move anywhere they wish, but it does not mean they should, for a variety of logical reasons.
Maybe you're in the real estate sales business, which would make sense and explain much.
I would submit that "bidding up our prices" (your words), is not a good process or goal for economic well being and quality of life. In fact that's a bone-headed desire, short term and long term.
I'm here from California. Still own there, but I'm getting out. (and don't worry, as my wife and I bring our politics here, you are getting two people that will not vote for any thing that even hints at being a liberal.) Retired. Have been renting here for the last seven months and looking to buy a small modest home, but home buying here feels crazier here than the heady years of the SF Bay Area. My recollection is that prices never went up as quickly (percentage wise) as is happening here in Florida.
There have been good reasons mentioned here in this topic for the raging Florida real estate prices. A lot of people want to be here for multiple reasons, and some of us can afford it. But until there is a solid economic base beyond social security payments and retirement savings this gulf side can't support California prices. The SF bay area, as sick and corrupt and broke as it is, is still where a lot of America's tech knowledge, wealth and business is. California, having reached a critical mass of insane democrats, is in melt down. But while wealth is coming to the gulf, wealth generation is not coming here from what I can see. (okay, a little in Tampa.) So yes there are people with money retiring here but I don't see how the housing prices can be supported beyond the demand of retired escapees.
I take the argument that the home values (excluding the land value) are set by equivalent costs of building material and labor, which is inflating, so home prices will at least track that. But beyond that, for much longer? I doubt it.
And another trend everybody likes to point to: The growing number of people that work remotely. Eventually this will balance out. (1) Employers will adjust what they pay. If you were making $250K/yr working for FAANG in Sunnyvale CA, maybe you will only make $130K working remotely from Sarasota. (2) and then eventually employers will realize if they don't need to see that employee in the office in Sunnyvale, why pay him $130K in Sarasota - just because he's a nice guy on a zoom call? They'll pay $45K to a new guy in a suburb of Warsaw where there are strong tech universities. I've seen that one play out. A whole development department where I worked in SF was recently cleaned out.
I do wonder about renting as an alternative to jumping in right now. All those homes bought up by REITs and Vanguard and BlackRock need a rate of return and will have to get rented, or dumped. Not everyone is a retiree with bucks. The younger generations here, not trained in tech and no tech industry here to employ them, can't afford $4000/mo rents. And there is not an economic base that needs the services that pay for $4000/mo rent. Maybe that will be a downward trend and homes will come back on the market.
All that said, I am not so sure what is going to happen. Maybe homes will be $500/sq ft before I post this.
The type of stuff I really worry about is that all those digital 1's and 0's (base-2) I own could melt away, and having *real* estate will be way better than meaningless bits in an account.
Another factor many are forgetting is the min wage increase. This can affect construction of new homes for the low wage workers like the helpers, and ones who do clean up on the job site, the lowest skilled workers. by 2026 it will be 15 an hour in FL.
That will factor into the home prices. Also, the other workers with more skill will have to be bumped up too because they won't want to be making min wage like the lowest worker.
That's something to really think about as well and will cause prices to go up.
You will also see prices on everything produced in FL go up when that happens to makeup for the labor.
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