Lots of price reductions at this time in this forum area (Sarasota: for sale by owner, 2015)

[beach43ofus]

Originally Posted by RidgeCrossing

That's great that you think you're 500k "richer".

I think you might be correct if you had more than a paper gain/appreciation!

My understanding is that book gains/profits are unrealized gains, aka "phantom profits". Also, I think most experts say that paper gains aren't cash taken to the bank.

Whatever I guess. I know I've had paper gains blow up in smoke !

If my 100% paper gain dissolves, then 75%+ of those holding recently obtained mortgages are deep under water...like 2008. People could start walking away from theri home and mortgage again.

I don't see that happening, but if it does, I'm free and clear w/o any mortgage, & better off than 95% of Americans w/o debt, and a $550k paid off home that is not in any special tax district; like Wellen Park.

I no longer see LOTs of price reductions...much fewer now. The window has closed for the discounts.

We're now back to up up & away pricing. Millions arriving weekly now....many of them buyers, with fists full of cash they got from that home they sold back in CT, MA, NY, NJ, NH, IL, MI ect..

[1rainman]

It's not people with fists fulls of cash. Most of those came during the pandemic. My dad just sold his rental house. Day and night 100 calls from investors. Nobody actually looking to live in it. Regular people can't afford a house here. We are in a pyramid scheme investor bubble. Everyone is buying because they think it will be more next year. Once prices go down a little all the investors pull out and prices are going to sink fast.

There are lots of people moving here but they are building thousands of new homes at a time and apartment complexes. So I don't think there is a housing shortage here. Just a shortage of affordable housing.

[wondermint2]

"Investors" are swarming in like maggots on SW Florida property and they will raise prices.

FEMA Rule Gives Investors An Opportunity To Swoop In On Florida Real Estate

https://news.google.com/articles/CBM...S&ceid=US%3Aen

Homeowners along Florida’s Gulf Coast whose homes were damaged and destroyed by the storm are subject to the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Substantial Damages and Substantial Improvements rule, also known as the FEMA 50% rule. The rule also applies to commercial property.

According to the FEMA 50% rule, if any repairs or renovation to the home are estimated to cost more than 50% of its value, the owner is required to bring the structure into compliance with flood damage prevention regulations. The home can’t be insured unless this is done.

“Bringing homes up to FEMA’s flood code requires a significant financial investment into the home,” said Zahra Antaramian, field operations director at real estate management company ADG4 in Naples, Florida. Most of these people do not have the money required to do that. They are forced into selling the home. In that case, investors are really the only option because the home is a total loss — it’s a teardown.”

[RidgeCrossing]

Call me silly....cash in your pocket, i.e. free and clear seems better than cash MONEY profit locked up in an illiquid asset.

A house is NOT an investment instrument.

Whatever...stupid people have been around since time.

[beach43ofus]

I wonder if the homeowners can obtain loans easily enough to rebuild upto the new codes?

Originally Posted by wondermint2

"Investors" are swarming in like maggots on SW Florida property and they will raise prices.

FEMA Rule Gives Investors An Opportunity To Swoop In On Florida Real Estate

https://news.google.com/articles/CBM...S&ceid=US%3Aen

Homeowners along Florida’s Gulf Coast whose homes were damaged and destroyed by the storm are subject to the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Substantial Damages and Substantial Improvements rule, also known as the FEMA 50% rule. The rule also applies to commercial property.

According to the FEMA 50% rule, if any repairs or renovation to the home are estimated to cost more than 50% of its value, the owner is required to bring the structure into compliance with flood damage prevention regulations. The home can’t be insured unless this is done.

“Bringing homes up to FEMA’s flood code requires a significant financial investment into the home,” said Zahra Antaramian, field operations director at real estate management company ADG4 in Naples, Florida. Most of these people do not have the money required to do that. They are forced into selling the home. In that case, investors are really the only option because the home is a total loss — it’s a teardown.”

[beach43ofus]

Prices are flattening back out, or edging upwards again.

Here's the dip I was seeing back in the Summer time, when I was suggestion it could be a short-term buying opp:

https://www.homelight.com/blog/flori...forecast-2022/

Here's another view of the Summer softening:

https://movingtofloridaguide.com/und...e-experts.html

But so many people re still moving here, and so many are paying cash and inventories are still low at 2.5 months, the short-term Summer dip is fading:

https://movingtofloridaguide.com/und...e-experts.html


I predict the slight up tick we're seeing now will pick up steam, but nowhere near the buying frenzy we had early in 2022. Baby boomers are still retiring up North, and moving down, inventory's tight, lots of cash buyers who dont care about interest rates.

[JBtwinz]

We are in a location that still has strong demand for retirees and sales are still doing well however buyers offering upwards of 10% over asking has definitely subsided and those sellers who were trying to jump on that crazy train we are seeing them come off their unrealistic asking prices a bit now.

I still firmly believe that some areas of Florida will remain strong as we are in the cycle where so many Boomers are cash rich and are retiring. When their numbers start to decrease I think that will get interesting in a few years.

The Villages just announced another expansion of 3200 homes so I think targeted areas for retirees are still doing well.

In Jacksonville we are also seeing new construction which had waitlists now offering deals on move ins. The 7% mortgages are definitely hurting those first time home buyers and those that wanted to move up.

On another note we have several friends leaving Florida for Tennessee. We looked around at Knoxville and Johnson City and home prices there are still rising. The Boomers are definitely seeking out those areas that are tax friendly.

[Sunshine Rules]

We had actually looked into the Knoxville area years ago, but winters are just too cold after decades in FL and then there's the Oak Ridge facility........

[RidgeCrossing]

Let's try this: if you have not seen substantial discounts, and multiple incentives and so-called "giveaways" (closing costs, appliances, etc etc), then either you're NOT paying attention, or are willfully ignorant ! or deadazz sleepwalking


Recent months have seen month-on-month declines in the Florida median sale price. From June 2022 to July 2022, Florida's median sale price fell by 2.7%, from $410,400 to $399,200. And then from July 2022 to August 2022, it fell by 1%, and from August 2022 to September 2022 by 0.7%.

Not just in the Tampa area either:


https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/...re-homeowners/


LENNAR - year end "sale"
https://www.lennar.com/new-homes/vir..._incentives_22





PULTE homes pays mortgage payment:
https://www.pulte.com/homes/florida/sarasota


NEAL Community houses:
ttps://www.nealcommunities.com/promotions/


TOLL Brothers many incentives
https://www.tollbrothers.com/luxury-...SAAEgK6nvD_BwE




If you think discounts on inventories don't continue to exist, you couldn't be paying attention or simply are ignorant of the facts.

[RidgeCrossing]

Also...


What kind of fool "cash buyer" of an illiquid doesn't CARE about interest rates? LOL


For example only, in any dramatic upward and sustained rise in the UST 10yr rate/yield, thereby a raise in tandem with rates on Mortgages, WILL decrease the overall "marketability" of most any house , because the pool of qualified buyers will FALL.



Unbelievable....everyone is affected by any dramatic rise in rates, thus "care".


That said, if a true buyer of an actual "investment vehicle" is heavily invested in "adjustable rate instruments" they *may* benefit in that kind of scenario.


Similarly, if one's "liabilities" are repricing quicker and more dramatically than your "assets" you might have quite a "negative gap"......it's ALL about "interest rates" and will continue to be so.


In other cases, with a dramatic rise in interest rates, some times prices in the housing market can back off in order to achieve a bit of "equilibrium", especially in new house construction.


If a "cash buyer" doesn't "care about" interest rates he is a big dummy....lol


For example only, having cash in hand to invest continuously/gradually in a market that is "adjusting upward" can be a rewarding move by sticking to the "short term" part of the yield curve to take advantage of not "locking in" long term. That's intelligent in riding the curve rather than sinking a stack of CASH MONEY in an illiquid so-called "investment" (a dumb house).


I'm laffing