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Old 08-28-2023, 09:46 AM
 
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Craig Setzer@CraigSetzer (Chief Meteorologist Royal Caribbean Group —-Hurricane Preparedness Specialist —-Emmy winning former TV Meteorologist)

https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/stat...71613597663712

"Complicated forecasts involving big risks such as strong hurricanes require oversized areas of preparation. Here's why this forecast is complex.

Idalia will be guided north for a day or so thanks to high pressure building in from the east. A jet stream dip will try to turn the Idalia eastward. Where that steering influence starts to change hands will make all the difference in who gets the core of Idalia.

Decades of doing this has taught me to be extremely careful when a trough is nearby because our model skill is not great at predicting when a storm begins to feel that jet stream dip & begin to turn.

If Idalia senses the dip sooner than predicted (e.g. Ian, Charley, etc), then it makes landfall much closer to Tampa Bay.

Continue hurricane preps Florida west coast!"

Last edited by wondermint2; 08-28-2023 at 10:36 AM..
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Old 08-28-2023, 10:51 AM
 
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https://twitter.com/FloridaTropics1/...73828953591952

"EVACUATION ORDER: Manatee Co. has issued a mandatory evacuation for Level A (including all mobile home parks) and voluntary evacuation for Level B as of 2 PM today. #Idalia"

https://www.mymanatee.org/news___eve...cuation_orders

COUNTY SHELTER LOCATIONS
(opening at 2 p.m.):

- Virgil Mills Elementary School 7200 69th Street E. Palmetto 34211
- Jesse P. Miller Elementary School 60143rd St. W, Bradenton 34209
- Freedom Elementary School 9515 FL 64, Bradenton 34212

Citizens with special needs who are not registered for this event are encouraged to immediately contact Manatee 3-1-1 and provide their name and phone number.

CITIZEN’S INFORMATION CENTER (3-1-1) Manatee County’s 3-1-1 call center will be open and fully staffed 24/7 to field calls from citizens about sandbag locations, storm preparedness, evacuation levels and more.

Last edited by wondermint2; 08-28-2023 at 11:03 AM..
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Old 08-28-2023, 11:19 AM
 
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"For now" most models are predicting Idalia to make landfall near the Big Bend area. However IMO this is still not set in stone - and even if Sarasota goes out of the cone the effects from the storm will still be felt.

Zach Covey ❎@ZachCoveyTV
| Hurricane Specialist | Spectrum News |
@FloridaState
Alumnus

https://twitter.com/ZachCoveyTV/stat...03060316455178

"As the afternoon computer models begin to come in, I want to issue a word of caution. Models continue to poorly reflect the eastward jog of #Idalia the past 24 hours.

Right now, models (both GFS and Euro) expect the storm to be west of 85W. The center is lying at, or just east, of that longitude marker.

These important jogs east in the next 18 hours will have major impacts on where the eventual northward journey begins, which can bring higher impacts to western Florida. Continue to watch satellite imagery and don't put your stock in computer guidance fully. #FLwx"
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Old 08-28-2023, 12:08 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wondermint2 View Post
A summary of watches and warnings as of 11AM ET.

https://twitter.com/FloridaTropics1/...80388811477084

1) Storm surge warning from Englewood to the Ochlocknee River, including Tampa Bay.

2) A Hurricane warning has been issued from the middle of Longboat Key northward to the Ochlocknee River, including Tampa Bay.

3) A Tropical Storm warning has been issued from Chokoloskee northward to the middle of Longboat Key, and from West of the Lockheed River westward to Indian pass
As of the 2PM ET NHC update it looks like Sarasota has moved just outside the cone to the South. However looking at their map it looks like Manatee County and the North part of Sarasota County is still under a Hurricane Warning while the South part of Sarasota County is under a Hurricane Watch/Tropical Storm warning.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...?cone#contents
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Old 08-28-2023, 12:42 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wondermint2 View Post
The Sarasota Herald-Tribune has started a live updates page for Hurricane Idalia. I don't believe there is a paywall but I'm not sure.

Live updates: Tropical Storm Idalia effects in Sarasota-Manatee counties

https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/...a/70697853007/

Updated 10:26AM ET

Tropical Storm Idalia is expected to become a strong Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of about 115 mph with Sarasota and Manatee counties near the forecast zone.

Although it's projected to make landfall between the Big Bend area of Florida and Tampa Bay, western Manatee County and northern Sarasota County could see hurricane-force winds, with 6 to 8 inches of rain in the region.

A supermoon will contribute to higher-than-normal tides, bringing a projected storm surge of 4-7 feet to Tampa Bay and 3-5 feet above normal in Sarasota.

Follow along for the latest updates on the storm's impact in Sarasota and Manatee counties.
Sarasota County declares evacuation for barrier islands and other areas, opening shelters Tuesday

Sarasota County declared an evacuation Monday afternoon for Level A zones – which includes low lying areas, barrier islands, manufactured homes and liveaboard vessels.

Sarasota County schools will be closed both Tuesday and Wednesday, as all 12 Sarasota County emergency evacuation shelters will open at 8 a.m. Tuesday.

All 12 Sarasota County emergency shelters will open at 8 a.m. Tuesday, while shelters for medically dependent residents will open at 7 a.m.

As of Monday afternoon, Sarasota County was still finalizing details of transportation from rally points such as the Venice Community Center on Tuesday morning to evacuation centers.

A county spokeswoman said via email that for now, transportation can be arranged through Breeze Plus and Breeze On Demand by calling 311. There’s more information on those services on scgov.net.

Sarasota County will offer sandbag filling stations form 2 to 7 p.m. Monday and 7 a.m. to 4 p.m. Tuesday at Ed Smith Stadium, 2700 12th Street, Sarasota; Twin Lakes Park, 6700 Clark Road, Sarasota, and the South County Fleet Maintenance Facility at 4571 State Road 776 in South Venice.

Shovels and sandbags will be provided. There is a 10 bag limit per vehicle.

To receive regular text updates from Sarasota County, text SRQCOUNTY to 888777.

Last edited by wondermint2; 08-28-2023 at 01:25 PM..
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Old 08-28-2023, 12:54 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wondermint2 View Post
Sarasota County declares evacuation for barrier islands and other areas, opening shelters Tuesday

Sarasota County declared an evacuation Monday afternoon for Level A zones – which includes low lying areas, barrier islands, manufactured homes and liveaboard vessels.

Sarasota County schools will be closed both Tuesday and Wednesday, as all 12 Sarasota County emergency evacuation shelters will open at 8 a.m. Tuesday.

All 12 Sarasota County emergency shelters will open at 8 a.m. Tuesday, while shelters for medically dependent residents will open at 7 a.m.

As of Monday afternoon, Sarasota County was still finalizing details of transportation from rally points such as the Venice Community Center on Tuesday morning to evacuation centers.

A county spokeswoman said via email that for now, transportation can be arranged through Breeze Plus and Breeze On Demand by calling 311. There’s more information on those services on scgov.net.

Sarasota County will offer sandbag filling stations form 2 to 7 p.m. Monday and 7 a.m. to 4 p.m. Tuesday at Ed Smith Stadium, 2700 12th Street, Sarasota; Twin Lakes Park, 6700 Clark Road, Sarasota, and the South County Fleet Maintenance Facility at 4571 State Road 776 in South Venice.

Shovels and sandbags will be provided. There is a 10 bag limit per vehicle.

To receive regular text updates from Sarasota County, text SRQCOUNTY to 888777.
Latest forecast: What weather Sarasota-Manatee can expect from Idalia?

https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/...a/70697853007/

Updated 2:29 PM ET

Takeaways from the latest update from the National Weather Service office in Ruskin:

Wind: Gusts over 115 mph at coast of Pinellas, Levy, Citrus, 50-80 mph elsewhere in Hurricane Warning area, which includes Sarasota and Manatee. There is an 84% probability of tropical storm winds in Sarasota, as early as 1 p.m. Tuesday but more likely by 7 p.m. In Manatee there is a 95% chance around roughly the same times. Coastal counties can expect tropical storm force winds to last for 18 to 24 hours: 50 mph, gusting to 75 mph north of Longboat Key; 40 gusting 60 mph in rain bands to the south. Winds should be departing Sarasota-Manatee around 6 to 7 a.m. Wednesday.

Surge: Widespread deep salt water flooding, possibly reaching several miles inland for the most impacted areas, which expected to be near Cedar Key. The Tampa Bay area is expected to see waters rise 4 to 7 feet above ground level, and in Sarasota County 3 to 5 feet. Charlotte and Lee: 2 to 4 feet.

Waters will begin to increase Tuesday night, possibly flooding coastal roads. The peak surge is expected on Wednesday. The highest surge potential is on Wednesday near and after the eye wall passes and winds become onshore.

Rain: Flooding rain is possible in Sarasota and Manatee counties Tuesday evening and Wednesday in which small streams, canals, and ditches overflow. Rapid flooding of underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas, especially near coast at high tide.

Landfall: Expected in Florida Tuesday night or Wednesday around Cedar Key to Tampa, with forecast models clustering their expectations around Cedar Key, increasing the confidence the storm will make landfall north of Tarpon Springs.
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Old 08-28-2023, 01:26 PM
 
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Sarasota evacuation map:

https://twitter.com/FloridaTropics1/...26583541911690
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Old 08-28-2023, 01:33 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wondermint2 View Post
https://twitter.com/FloridaTropics1/...73828953591952

"EVACUATION ORDER: Manatee Co. has issued a mandatory evacuation for Level A (including all mobile home parks) and voluntary evacuation for Level B as of 2 PM today. #Idalia"

https://www.mymanatee.org/news___eve...cuation_orders

COUNTY SHELTER LOCATIONS
(opening at 2 p.m.):

- Virgil Mills Elementary School 7200 69th Street E. Palmetto 34211
- Jesse P. Miller Elementary School 60143rd St. W, Bradenton 34209
- Freedom Elementary School 9515 FL 64, Bradenton 34212

Citizens with special needs who are not registered for this event are encouraged to immediately contact Manatee 3-1-1 and provide their name and phone number.

CITIZEN’S INFORMATION CENTER (3-1-1) Manatee County’s 3-1-1 call center will be open and fully staffed 24/7 to field calls from citizens about sandbag locations, storm preparedness, evacuation levels and more.
Here's where to get free sandbags in Bradenton, Manatee as Florida braces for hurricane

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/he...02c76262&ei=42

Starting Monday, Manatee County Government has free sandbags available at multiple locations. The sandbags are self-serve, with a limit of 10 per household. The bags are provided.

Sandbag centers are available at the following locations:

— Manatee Beach, 4000 Gulf Drive, Holmes Beach

— Coquina Beach, 2650 Gulf Drive, Bradenton Beach

— Rubonia, 1309 72nd St. E., Palmetto

— 66th Street West Fleet Building, (non-ADA; entrance directly across from 65th Street West), 4700 66th St. W., Bradenton

— Pride Park, 6032 Ninth St. E., Bradenton

*

DeSoto Mall, 303 301 Blvd. West, Bradenton

*

Myakka Community Center, 10060 Wauchula Road, Myakka City

Bradenton residents: Starting Monday morning, sandbags became available for city of Bradenton residents at the Public Works Annex Building, 1411 Ninth St. W., Bradenton. There is a limit of 10 sandbags per vehicle.

Visit www.MyManatee.org/ManateeReady to check your evacuation level and view other hurricane preparedness information.
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Old 08-28-2023, 01:48 PM
 
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Nikhil Trivedi@DCAreaWx (Tracking all types of weather phenomena with a primary focus on the DC area, Mid-Atlantic, and tropics. UW-Madison AOS ‘26)

https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1696243385466548363

"The final 24 hours prior to #Idalia's landfall in Florida will be characterized by incredibly diffluent upper levels. If we don't have a core by that time, I'd expect the forecast for a low-end major hurricane to verify. If we do have a core, the ceiling is a lot higher."
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Old 08-28-2023, 03:25 PM
 
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Longboat Key town manager: 'Stay away,' as surge concerns grow

https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/...a/70697853007/

Longboat Key Town Manager Howard Tipton said town offices would be closed on Tuesday and that people visiting the island should stay away due to the threat of high water.

Tipton, who has been the chief executive for the Town of Longboat Key for about six months, said some low-lying roads already flood when King Tides happen without a hurricane threatening to swamp the barrier island.

A King Tide is a non-scientific term used to describe abnormally high tides experienced during a new or full moon.

Tipton said the town is bracing for winds from the storm between 50 to 70 mph, with between four to six inches of rain and the potential for five feet of storm surge.

"The storm surge is the biggest concern," he said.

Tipton expected some streets to begin flooding by late Tuesday morning and urged anyone to avoid Longboat Key for the next couple days.

"There is no reason to be out on Longboat on Tuesday or Wednesday," Tipton said. "We will look forward to seeing visitors on the other side of the storm."

He noted that all low-lying areas were being evacuated with both Sarasota and Manatee county officials urging residents or visitors of the barrier islands to get off the islands.
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