Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
"foreclosures and other distressed low-end properties have even sparked bidding wars in places like Las Vegas, Phoenix and Miami. But the market for high-end properties is at a virtual standstill, mainly because it remains difficult to get a mortgage for expensive homes."
I think you are seeing a lot of this going on in SWFL right now, not just Miami. There has been a lot of cash pulled out of the stock market over the past couple years, and now people feel that the housing market has hit bottom.
I think SoFLGal has stated numerous times in her stats that houses are getting multiple offers quickly and above list price. I also think that after review that the prices have begun to climb signifantly in the past month or so. I am surprised at how sharply prices have risen and still the buying interest is getting crazy. All cash offeres in many cases too.
Maybe some of the people that have gone out with me lately can comment on the fact the people are not willing to bargain that much on their price right now and often times there are multiple offers on a properties that are priced well.
I am on the front lines and I keep a very good eye on what's happening in my market. I don't pay a whole lot of attention to what the Board of Realtors says, the Herald-Tribune says, the Bradenton Herald says, etc. I can tell you prices are going up and there's multiple offers on many, many properties. I've also said many times that if/when another wave of foreclosures comes down the pike this might change the dynamics of the whole thing. Right now when a foreclosure comes on the market it gets snapped up right away. I listed a property (foreclosure) yesterday afternoon and already have multiple offers on it.
One example is that just a month or so ago there were upwards 100 properties that were newer in North Port under $100K. Now there's only a handful that are finished homes under $100K and everyone is fighting over those.
SoFLGal thats what I mean when I say dont trust the media. my head is spinning from reports that have come out from all media sources over the last three days. If you watch the six o'clock news on one channel sales are down, sky is still falling etc.
If you watch a different channel at 11 you hear that there is optimism in the housing market due to an increase is sales!
The media has gotten really out of hand lately and simply has their own agenda and like I have said cant be trusted anymore.
Your first hand knowledge of what is happening in your area is a far more realistic approach for people. Unfortunately, there aren't too many SoFLGals that help people out like you do on here.
Thanks again for all the info you share, you need to know that it is appreciated by a bunch of people.
Willy
SoFLGal thats what I mean when I say dont trust the media. my head is spinning from reports that have come out from all media sources over the last three days. If you watch the six o'clock news on one channel sales are down, sky is still falling etc.
If you watch a different channel at 11 you hear that there is optimism in the housing market due to an increase is sales!
The media has gotten really out of hand lately and simply has their own agenda and like I have said cant be trusted anymore.
Your first hand knowledge of what is happening in your area is a far more realistic approach for people. Unfortunately, there aren't too many SoFLGals that help people out like you do on here.
Thanks again for all the info you share, you need to know that it is appreciated by a bunch of people.
Willy
Awww...thanks Willy. I know what you're saying about the reports. Like with two totally different views in the papers in neighboring towns. I wonder how people can have such different views? I will say though that sometimes that Sarasota Herald does look at real estate issues with rose colored glasses. They usually get slammed by their readers that comment under each story.
I'm pretty much a straight shooter and tell it like it is. If the market was doing terrible and nobody was buying I'd be on here telling you all that's how things are. That's just not the case though right now at this point.
It's a bit eerie right now. We were getting flooded with foreclosures a few months back and now it's like the spigot just turned off. Now I know the foreclosures didn't just stop, so is this the calm before the storm? Are "they" controlling the numbers of foreclosures that are going through in an attempt to boost the housing market? I'm curious to see how things will look in the next six months to a year. Will it be better? Will it be much worse? I think everyone is throwing out opinions and speculating right now. It seems as though no one knows what's happening.
there have been several articles I have read that foreclosures have been "stalled" within the banks' proceedures and not put on the market--several reasons were given -- one of them being that banks were supposed to be trying harder to make homeowners a better deal to stay in the homes but because of many factors that really was not going to do much good...
frankly I am very concerned about all the news of "consumer confidence" that I am reading...
this is so difficult to analyze and interpret--
I know that when our daughter and SIL were looking for home in Venice/Osprey/Nokomis area they found it very difficult to get what they wanted in their price range because 1) people were not willing to trade very low in their pricing, 2) there was competition from other buyers many of whom were using cash purchase
our daughter was afraid -- as many of you have remarked--that actually the bottom of the market was probably already over in some areas...
but it all depends on what you are looking for really...
the low end of the market seems to be pretty strong since people are searching many times for homes to turn into rental properties--so they are not interested in something over 300 or 400K--
there is supposed to be backlong of properties in many areas of the country that have been withheld from the market by banks which will come into the market within the next 30-60 days--
I think part of this is because banks like BoA (holding CountryWide mortgages) and Wells Fargo (holding Wachovia mortgages) are trying to make THEIR balance sheets as rosy as possible (remember that measles also produces a rosy complexion)...
until they have actually declared those mortgages as non-performing they do not have to consider them as liability on their balance sheets--so holding them for 90 days of no payment or 120 day of no payment is just part of their avoidence of reality mind-set
I have absolutely NO FAITH in anything that BoA would say about their balance sheets because CountryWide was just a sinkhole of bad home mortgages
Well Fargo is probably in better shape than BoA overall because it was not as much overextended but Wachovia still has lots of bad mortgages because it was so heavily involved in states like FL where the RE market is still struggling...
there is plenty of money sitting on the sidelines still--as much as the market has run up since Nov or March--it does not have a broad base of investment capital coming back in--that is one reason people are paying cash for these homes--and they are doing it in cities like Phoenix which has seen a tremedous drop in home equity value--people are fighting almost to buy foreclosed/short sale homes--and many times just renting them back to the foreclosed owners...
In my area--DFW, TX--I checked out a usually reliable RE web site for my local area-
currently in the towns of Colleyville, Southlake, and Grapevine which are normally very desireable because of their excellent local schools and consistent stable home prices and location--these areas were very hot up until probably Christmas--
in the 400-500K range in Colleyville--once one of the hottest home markets in DFW area--there are only 3--not so good
in Southlake--one of the "desireable" towns in DFW area--now in the 300-400K market there are 7 houses pending closing--out of probably 30 which is really pretty good----in 400-500K range there are only 3 houses pending closing out of probably 25 homes...not such a good sign when you consider that most homes in that area avg 400K+ and there are many million dollar homes on the market...
so eventhough this area has done well generally compared to other areas of the country and there is job growth and generally positive outlook--people are NOT buying homes and people are certainly not buying more expensive homes compared to two years ago--
and our more expensive housing market is really stalling...
so I don't believe the media--too many news corps are controlled by groups of people with decided interest in shaping the news to their agendas
but it is also difficult to tell what is accurate perception based on what my own eyes--common sense tells me the other shoe has still not fallen--
there have been several articles I have read that foreclosures have been "stalled" within the banks' proceedures and not put on the market--several reasons were given -- one of them being that banks were supposed to be trying harder to make homeowners a better deal to stay in the homes but because of many factors that really was not going to do much good...
frankly I am very concerned about all the news of "consumer confidence" that I am reading...
this is so difficult to analyze and interpret--
I know that when our daughter and SIL were looking for home in Venice/Osprey/Nokomis area they found it very difficult to get what they wanted in their price range because 1) people were not willing to trade very low in their pricing, 2) there was competition from other buyers many of whom were using cash purchase
our daughter was afraid -- as many of you have remarked--that actually the bottom of the market was probably already over in some areas...
but it all depends on what you are looking for really...
the low end of the market seems to be pretty strong since people are searching many times for homes to turn into rental properties--so they are not interested in something over 300 or 400K--
there is supposed to be backlong of properties in many areas of the country that have been withheld from the market by banks which will come into the market within the next 30-60 days--
I think part of this is because banks like BoA (holding CountryWide mortgages) and Wells Fargo (holding Wachovia mortgages) are trying to make THEIR balance sheets as rosy as possible (remember that measles also produces a rosy complexion)...
until they have actually declared those mortgages as non-performing they do not have to consider them as liability on their balance sheets--so holding them for 90 days of no payment or 120 day of no payment is just part of their avoidence of reality mind-set
I have absolutely NO FAITH in anything that BoA would say about their balance sheets because CountryWide was just a sinkhole of bad home mortgages
Well Fargo is probably in better shape than BoA overall because it was not as much overextended but Wachovia still has lots of bad mortgages because it was so heavily involved in states like FL where the RE market is still struggling...
there is plenty of money sitting on the sidelines still--as much as the market has run up since Nov or March--it does not have a broad base of investment capital coming back in--that is one reason people are paying cash for these homes--and they are doing it in cities like Phoenix which has seen a tremedous drop in home equity value--people are fighting almost to buy foreclosed/short sale homes--and many times just renting them back to the foreclosed owners...
In my area--DFW, TX--I checked out a usually reliable RE web site for my local area-
currently in the towns of Colleyville, Southlake, and Grapevine which are normally very desireable because of their excellent local schools and consistent stable home prices and location--these areas were very hot up until probably Christmas--
in the 400-500K range in Colleyville--once one of the hottest home markets in DFW area--there are only 3--not so good
in Southlake--one of the "desireable" towns in DFW area--now in the 300-400K market there are 7 houses pending closing--out of probably 30 which is really pretty good----in 400-500K range there are only 3 houses pending closing out of probably 25 homes...not such a good sign when you consider that most homes in that area avg 400K+ and there are many million dollar homes on the market...
so eventhough this area has done well generally compared to other areas of the country and there is job growth and generally positive outlook--people are NOT buying homes and people are certainly not buying more expensive homes compared to two years ago--
and our more expensive housing market is really stalling...
so I don't believe the media--too many news corps are controlled by groups of people with decided interest in shaping the news to their agendas
but it is also difficult to tell what is accurate perception based on what my own eyes--common sense tells me the other shoe has still not fallen--
You have a lot of good points, consistant with what I've been saying, plus you've added the thought that the banks dont' want to declare them as non-performing, thus keeping their financial condition looking better. In any case I believe there is a long standing pile up of homes yet to come to market. Also your point that this market is difficult to understand and analyze is very true. Some of the deflated home prices definitely make the investment for rentals work, especially when the houses that are moving right now are mostly all cash deals where financing is not an issue.
and frankly when I see what is happening with tax evaluations here in my area and know how much the cities/counties want to push home valuations to top of market for homes that are NOT foreclosed---I wonder how buying rental property will really work out for positive cash flow several years in the future--it seems like the tax burden will really be big bite of what normally would be profit--that means rents would have to go up to cover taxes and add profitability....
and frankly when I see what is happening with tax evaluations here in my area and know how much the cities/counties want to push home valuations to top of market for homes that are NOT foreclosed---I wonder how buying rental property will really work out for positive cash flow several years in the future--it seems like the tax burden will really be big bite of what normally would be profit--that means rents would have to go up to cover taxes and add profitability....
Taxes and what happens there, which is revenue to the jurisdictions, is a very valid question, and a risk to investors too. But I think if you look at the revenues for rental properties, and the devalued prices right now, and the low interest rates, the numbers work in a lot of cases. That is why you see so much interest right now. The problem I would think that could continue to plague investors is the strength of the market. With all the job loses, and low wages, has the affordable numbers plummeted significantly in what renters can afford.
Over all when you run the numbers though right now, for rental investment properties there seems to be some good opportunities, and that is why you see the activity you see now. The numbers are working, and there has been a lot of cash on the sidelines waiting for the right time to jump back in the market. It it the right time, are better deals going to happen down the road, what happens with inflation, what happens if the market struggles long term, is the lack of working capital going to be problematic, all good quesions?!
Now, where the heck did I put that crystal ball! I had it here a minute ago! Darn it! I just set it down so I could polish it and its gone!
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Unfortunately, there aren't too many SoFLGals that help people out like you do on here.
Darn it! I just set it down so I could polish it and its gone!
