-25.98% Home Price Decline for Bradenton Metro Area in 2010 (Sarasota: real estate, apartments)

[Dreamy46]

This is pretty shocking news today. Moody's is predicting a -25.98% home price decrease for the Bradenton Metro Area in 2010.

Forecasting housing prices for 2010 - Dec. 9, 2009

Coupled with the home insurance rate increase in the news, 2010 is looking pretty nasty.

[Ladywithafan]

Originally Posted by Dreamy46

This is pretty shocking news today. Moody's is predicting a -25.98% home price decrease for the Bradenton Metro Area in 2010.

Forecasting housing prices for 2010 - Dec. 9, 2009

Coupled with the home insurance rate increase in the news, 2010 is looking pretty nasty.

Not sure why you find this shocking?

[HenryHelmhazzard]

I find it shocking that their prediction is so precise

(They're just trying to sound more credible...)

[Dreamy46]

Originally Posted by HenryHelmhazzard

I find it shocking that their prediction is so precise

(They're just trying to sound more credible...)

Looks rather credible:

"The results are broken into 100 metropolitan areas. (Last year the projections were pretty accurate, forecasting a 14.5% decline in 2009; the actual figure is likely to come in around --13.2%.)"

[Big House]

Originally Posted by Dreamy46

Looks rather credible:

That is a big drop! I heard that the vacancy rate of houses (not apartments) was about 24%. That is going to make it a renters market as well - tough goings for investors looking to get in!

[Dreamy46]

Originally Posted by Big House

That is a big drop! I heard that the vacancy rate of houses (not apartments) was about 24%. That is going to make it a renters market as well - tough goings for investors looking to get in!

Are you confusing vacancy rate with price? I don't understand your post?

Why would a 25% drop in home prices be "tough going for investors looking to get in," which I understand as investors intending to buy? Of course this is nothing but pain for the investors and residents that "already got in," thinking that they bought at the bottom, which is obviously not in sight yet.

[gypsychic]

Yeah, why is it so "shocking" exactly? I read this article the other day, must have already been posted somewhere else on this website.

I still see plenty of people coming here and buying houses. Here in my neighborhood anything that was ever under $200,000 has been sold, and there are only a couple left in the $200s. The stuff that is languishing are the higher end homes, say from $400,000 and up. As I said, that is my MY specific neighborhood.

I am sure there are plenty of nabes in and around this region that may see more price drops, mostly those little older neighborhoods like South Gate and Gulf Gate where flipping was rampant a few years ago, but I think the best areas (like West of the Trail, and closer to the water) will hold there own. I know the article said "Bradenton" but I am kind of assuming they are talking about the whole area, Bradenton is a pretty small city by itself.

[SoFLGal]

Originally Posted by Dreamy46

Are you confusing vacancy rate with price? I don't understand your post?

Why would a 25% drop in home prices be "tough going for investors looking to get in," which I understand as investors intending to buy? Of course this is nothing but pain for the investors and residents that "already got in," thinking that they bought at the bottom, which is obviously not in sight yet.

I think what he was trying to say is that investors looking to purchase now might have some issues being able to make their cash flow work with the constant drop in rental prices. It also makes it hard to find good tenants when there's so much to choose from.

I will tell you that someone that I am working with from this board is in Sarasota looking for a month-to-month rental and he said it's actually very hard trying to find a decent rental out there. Every time he calls on an ad or sign it's already taken. I don't get into the rental portion of real estate much, with the exception of the places I personally own. I assumed it would be really easy to find a place but he reported it was just the opposite.

I concur with Gypsychic on what she said about areas. There are certain areas that haven't dropped nearly as much as other and those areas continue to be pretty "hot" areas.

[Dreamy46]

Originally Posted by SoFLGal

I think what he was trying to say is that investors looking to purchase now might have some issues being able to make their cash flow work with the constant drop in rental prices. It also makes it hard to find good tenants when there's so much to choose from.

I will tell you that someone that I am working with from this board is in Sarasota looking for a month-to-month rental and he said it's actually very hard trying to find a decent rental out there. Every time he calls on an ad or sign it's already taken. I don't get into the rental portion of real estate much, with the exception of the places I personally own. I assumed it would be really easy to find a place but he reported it was just the opposite.

I concur with Gypsychic on what she said about areas. There are certain areas that haven't dropped nearly as much as other and those areas continue to be pretty "hot" areas.

There's a couple of obvious things probably occurring with rentals: first, everyone who dumped a foreclosure and now has ruined credit is most likely renting, and second, people who are expecting the above mentioned price drops and are waiting to buy are obviously going to be taking up the rental space as well.

The interesting future equation will be can the folks who already bought that are making the rent numbers work for now be able to continue to do so after more price declines?

[Ladywithafan]

Originally Posted by Big House

That is a big drop! I heard that the vacancy rate of houses (not apartments) was about 24%. That is going to make it a renters market as well - tough goings for investors looking to get in!

After being a Bradenton resident since 1991, I'm not surprised. Mom left in May and has had her home on/off market for last year & a half. Had renters for part of this year who had to be evicted. It's not a pretty picture there, I don't care what anyone says....41 between Florida Blvd. and MLK is FRIGHTENING...and I'm sure there are cities across the U.S. looking the same exact way. There is not much industry to support the county. Between people getting laid off, no real jobs to speak of except law & medicine, Tropicanna not hiring, Donzi pretty dead, it's like a big "HELLO"....Cash is not flowing. I wasn't even surprised to hear DeSears shut down. I was totally expecting to hear a decline in home values. Unless you own out on the island, which is the last bastillion of "location" based sales, home value will continue to decrease. And money flow on the island is meandering, at best.