2014 City of Savannah population estimate

[ajc100890]

A basic exponential growth formula N = Pe^(rt), is by no means comprehensive enough to forecast human population growth. However, for the purposes of this thread, it is general enough.

N(2020) = Pe^(rt) where p is the population in 2010, e is a mathematical constant, r is the rate of growth, and t is the time interval (i.e. (2020-2010)/(2014-2010))
N(2020) = (136,340)e^(.058*2.5)
N(2020) = 157614

This assumes that growth remains constant as the four year period between 2010 and 2014. Of course, there are far more comprehensive formulas for human population growth, but they're all generally based off this more basic exponential growth theory. Additionally, there is only enough data provided to use this basic model.

[masonbauknight]

Originally Posted by ajc100890

A basic exponential growth formula N = Pe^(rt), is by no means comprehensive enough to forecast human population growth. However, for the purposes of this thread, it is general enough.

N(2020) = Pe^(rt) where p is the population in 2010, e is a mathematical constant, r is the rate of growth, and t is the time interval (i.e. (2020-2010)/(2014-2010))
N(2020) = (136,340)e^(.058*2.5)
N(2020) = 157614

This assumes that growth remains constant as the four year period between 2010 and 2014. Of course, there are far more comprehensive formulas for human population growth, but they're all generally based off this more basic exponential growth theory. Additionally, there is only enough data provided to use this basic model.

Thanks for that. Based on this formula, the city of Savannah will pass consolidated Macon-Bibb in population by 2020 -- if Macon-Bibb remains in its current demographic doldrums. With the decent employment stats for Macon just released by Georgia State University, though, it could turn itself around.

[WanderingImport]

Exciting times for the City of Savannah. I have been waiting for years for Savannah to break its all time high population!

[Airforceguy]

It seems I was off a little bit about Savannah's peak population. The correct number is 149,000 At the rate of current growth, Savannah should surpass this by either next year or 2017. Either way, Savannah will reach a new peak population by 2020. Also with the rapid growth that is occurring in the city, I think this will change the dynamics of the politics of the city. With so many newcomers I believe the old guard will have to adjust or get out of the way. I wouldn't be surprised if Edna Jackson is the last local elected mayor for a while.

[WanderingImport]

Originally Posted by Airforceguy

It seems I was off a little bit about Savannah's peak population. The correct number is 149,000 At the rate of current growth, Savannah should surpass this by either next year or 2017. Either way, Savannah will reach a new peak population by 2020. Also with the rapid growth that is occurring in the city, I think this will change the dynamics of the politics of the city. With so many newcomers I believe the old guard will have to adjust or get out of the way. I wouldn't be surprised if Edna Jackson is the last local elected mayor for a while.

Time will tell.

[Newsboy]

Originally Posted by Airforceguy

It seems I was off a little bit about Savannah's peak population. The correct number is 149,000 At the rate of current growth, Savannah should surpass this by either next year or 2017. Either way, Savannah will reach a new peak population by 2020. Also with the rapid growth that is occurring in the city, I think this will change the dynamics of the politics of the city. With so many newcomers I believe the old guard will have to adjust or get out of the way. I wouldn't be surprised if Edna Jackson is the last local elected mayor for a while.

What does "last local elected mayor" mean?

[Airforceguy]

Newsboy, what I meant to say was that Edna Jackson might be the last native Savannahian to be mayor. I think there's a strong chance someone who is not a native of the area could become mayor with the next 10 or 15 years.

[TheDarkKnight]

Originally Posted by Airforceguy

Newsboy, what I meant to say was that Edna Jackson might be the last native Savannahian to be mayor. I think there's a strong chance someone who is not a native of the area could become mayor with the next 10 or 15 years.

I was born here.

[SavannahLife]

DarkKnight in 2030!

bellhead that was funny and poignant. I like your posts and glad you were here, but enjoy the path life takes you on!

[masonbauknight]

Originally Posted by Airforceguy

there's a strong chance someone who is not a native of the area could become mayor with the next 10 or 15 years.

"In the next 10 to 15 years," definitely. But the problem is the State of Chatham, which endures in all its absurd politics and backroom deals at Savannah City Hall, in Pooler, in Port Wentworth, and in the county government. Outsiders (non-native Savannahians) can break through, but that's rare. Susan Weiner had the support of the Chamber of Commerce and business interests in the city and the county, but back then city voters also wanted a fresh break from the city's entrenched (then-white) political class. Fast-forward to 2015, and there's a racial tug-of-war for political power in the city. Plus, all of Chatham County is pretty much racially balkanized along administrative lines (city/town limits). Racially tinged politics are a factor everywhere in the Savannah area just as in metro Atlanta, but worse: Pooler with its Confederate flags on private homes; Savannah-Chatham with its (former) Black Panther power couple. On a positive note -- and there is one -- Atlanta and Savannah are nonetheless booming and growing at a far better pace than the four consolidated 2nd-tier cities (both within city limits and outside). You can't have everything.