Savannah population/punch grossly misunderstood vis a vis Charleston (Atlanta: for sale, 2014)

[OldSchoolSavannah]

As a life-long Savannahian and a watcher of all things Savannah vs. Charleston, I am continually amazed at the lack of understanding of how the two cities/metro areas compare to one another. I read and see the statistics just like everyone else, and the conventional wisdom is flawed. We are told that the MSA's are basically 2-1 in Charleston's advantage and as such they don't really compare at all. So the 2018 estimates are 775,000 for Charleston to a humble 389,000 for Savannah. This is false for a number of reasons...the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) that sets these boundaries has recognized this and has begun to correct by expanding Savannah's CSA twice during this decade.But actually, when you take the official CSA, that now includes Long, Liberty and Bulloch, the TRUE population grows to 577,000. While this is still 200,000 short of Charleston's population, this still doesn't tell the whole story.


But a couple of things need to be explained, I think, to make the case more clear...first the two MSA's are based upon county boundaries and so both Savannah and Charleston's core MSA's are made up of three counties...but the size of Charleston's are twice the square mileage of Savannah's. In other words, Savannah's MSA is 1,569 sq miles while Charleston's is 3,163. So, if you take the population Savannah is technically given credit for its population density is actually greater...247 per sq. mile vs. Charleston's 245.

Market analysts know that Savannah and Charleston are roughly equivalent in many respects: For example, Savannah has a larger television and radio market than does Charleston...90th vs. 92. And the medical presence has roughly the same ration of doctors and medical facilities...In the Charleston MSA there are 1800 hospital beds (not including the VA hospital there), and the Savannah region has approximately 1700. The airports are the same size, capacity, though Charleston's is currently 25% busier and carries a third more passengers. Interestingly, Savannah's has the current passenger load that Charleston's did in 2014, and so things can change rapidly (like when Savannah hopefully adds Southwest Airlines after the next terminal expansion is completed in late 2020).

To me the real game changer in perception will be what happens with Jasper County and Bluffton (SW Beaufort County) over the next ten years. While it won't happen in 2020, by the middle of the next decade, I expect that Jasper County will be formally included in the Savannah MSA (not CSA) and it is very likely that you'll see some connection formally recognized between a portion of Beaufort County and the Savannah MSA. I fully recognize that Hilton Head is its own thing, but Bluffton most assuredly is not. With the port and distribution business in Savannah having gone into hyperdrive many people are commuting down I-95 each day. Further, I work in Effingham County, live in Savannah, and a large minority of the people I see each day are commuting into SC each day for the various trades required (landscaping, construction, plumbing, etc.) Hilton Head is a bridge too far, literally, but the Hwy 278 corridor is not. The new Exit 3 development will only acclerate this...

All the above to say that by 2025 I expect large portions of the current CSA to be brought into the Savannah MSA, as well as new additions altogether. Of course, Charleston will continue to grow, but by 2025 it will be apples to apples: something like Savannah 700,000 vs 825,000 for Charleston. People will say Savannah has exploded, and the truth will be that the people have been here all along.

[masonbauknight]

You seem to have the usual C-D ailment: comparing apples to oranges. CSAs are expanded trading areas, not metropolitan areas. C-D posters love to debate using inflated CSAs and hyped statistics, but CSAs are much more loosey-goosey on every level than metropolitan areas. You make some points, but Charleston has packed the bigger demographic and economic punch throughout its history -- always larger, always able to secure network TV stations years before Savannah did, landing a Trader Joe's or a Costco long before Savannah, attracting big industries like Boeing instead of paper mills.

The yardstick of 2:1? It's still mostly valid. Exceptions: tourism, where Savannah's visitor punch and national reputation are growing faster (not quite at Charleston's yet, but that's very possible in the future) and the seaport, which has passed Charleston's in overall tonnage (thought to be very doubtful just 40 years ago). The Port of Savannah got key support from the state house in Atlanta.

[OldSchoolSavannah]

I do understand the difference between an MSA and a CSA, but the way they've been drawn is problematic for your argument however. Typically the powers that be have been unwilling to break up counties, like is done with, say, a congressional district. All you have to do is look at a map and see that Charleston County which stretches for 80 miles along the coast is unlikely to have the kind of economic connectivity that would be supposed...Ravenel on Hwy 17 (20 miles outside of Charleston is just as isolated and distant as Pembroke is from Savannah). The disparity that you point to between the demographics of the two regions is largely artificial. For example, Chatham County population density is 40% higher than Charleston County's. Savannah's urban core is significantly more dense, and the Charleston MSA is much more sprawling.

Your point about Boeing coming to Charleston is interesting, but Savannah's economy is arguably more diverse than Charleston's. Both have equivalent military presence (though Charleston's is largely Navy/Air Force and there are many more retirees in Charleston than Savannah), and let's call tourism a draw as well...though there are significantly more hotel nights and visitors each year in Savannah. With the recent Volvo plant going to Charleston let's give them the win there, but I think Gulfstream's economic impact in Savannah with its 11,000 employees and is every bit as valuable to her as is Boeing. May not be as sexy nationally, but that doesn't really matter. The real difference is the port and that has become a runaway win for Savannah. Presently, Savannah has twice the container volume as Charleston, and 30% more trade value. Its really not even close, and it will only get worse for Charleston in the years to come. I agree that that seemed unfathomable even 20 years ago, let alone 40. I'm sure that its true that some national chains reached Charleston first (TJ's/Costco), and undoubtedly culturally speaking Charleston was for a long time a generation ahead of Savannah. But that has begun to change, too.

My overall point is that Savannah is a significantly larger market and core presence in Southeast Georgia and the South Carolina lowcountry than it is understood to be outside the region. The truth of this assertion will become better understood as definitions begin to change in the next decade.

[masonbauknight]

You are exaggerating to the point of surrealism. Savannah's economy "more diverse" than Charleston's -- HOW? More open-carry cocktails for sale near elementary schools? This line of reasoning is hopeless. Then there's: With the recent Volvo plant going to Charleston let's give them the win there, but I think Gulfstream's economic impact in Savannah. "Let's give Charleston the win," though poor metro Savannah lies KO'ed in the middle of the ring.

As for CSAs/MSAs, statisticians from the OMB are better able than you or me to define or distinguish MSAs (metros) from CSAs (trading/marketing areas, which include media reach). Charleston's metro area stretches more along the coast and (way) up the peninsula to Summerville at least. That is very much the Charleston economic area. Hinesville doesn't have the same links to Savannah -- the links do exist of course, but they're looser. I am very optimistic about Savannah, and AirForce's posts prove that among all the 2nd-tier GA cities, Savannah is the booming metro. But it still lags behind metro Charleston in most all measures demographic and economic.

[OldSchoolSavannah]

Savannah's economy does not lie KO'd in the middle of the ring...really? I said more diverse. Didn't say larger, and I didn't say wealthier. And I can't speak to the plastic cup ratio next to local school children, but with 15,000,000 square feet of distribution space going up in the last 18 months, and close to a billion dollars worth of present development downtown in the tourism/hospitality industry and home permits at an all-time high, and the Port setting records each month the evidence is in that Savannah's economy is plenty diverse. And if I had to choose whether to have the Port of Savannah and the impact its bringing to the region (thousands of jobs, ancillary investment) or Volvo/Boeing and its associated impact, I'd take the PofS all day long. That's not surreal, that's just economic sensibilities. As you know, Savannah has become the Southeast coast's chosen port of entry/egress, and nothing looks likely to change that.

In less than ten years Savannah's defined economic market and reach has been re-defined three times...original CSA, adding Statesboro, and then Jesup. I realize the scope of CSA's are more loose (15% job overlap is the minimum). But then that's the point. As Savannah has boomed the connections that once were looser have become more solid. As Chatham county has been built out people have been willing to commute from greater distances. A decade ago Savannah's official reach was limited to Chatham, Effingham and Bryan counties. The perception has changed. It will continue to do so.

[masonbauknight]

Originally Posted by OldSchoolSavannah

15,000,000 square feet of distribution space going up in the last 18 months, and close to a billion dollars worth of present development downtown in the tourism/hospitality industry and home permits at an all-time high, and the Port setting records each month the evidence is in that Savannah's economy is plenty diverse.

All of that is commendable. I said earlier that it was positive and commendable.

Originally Posted by OldSchoolSavannah

And if I had to choose whether to have the Port of Savannah and the impact its bringing to the region (thousands of jobs, ancillary investment) or Volvo/Boeing and its associated impact, I'd take the PofS all day long. That's not surreal, that's just economic sensibilities. As you know, Savannah has become the Southeast coast's chosen port of entry/egress, and nothing looks likely to change that.

I wouldn't choose that though. Charleston's ability to attract major corporations with good-paying jobs is not bested by the Port of Savannah's success. The Port of Charleston is a major Atlantic seaport in its own right. Again: "apples versus apples" (a valid comparison is between the two ports). "Apples to oranges": Savannah's limited economy with its booming port is better than Charleston's robust, diverse economy but a slightly less booming port. That's misguided.

Originally Posted by OldSchoolSavannah

In less than ten years Savannah's defined economic market and reach has been re-defined three times...original CSA, adding Statesboro, and then Jesup. I realize the scope of CSA's are more loose (15% job overlap is the minimum). But then that's the point. As Savannah has boomed the connections that once were looser have become more solid. As Chatham county has been built out people have been willing to commute from greater distances. A decade ago Savannah's official reach was limited to Chatham, Effingham and Bryan counties. The perception has changed. It will continue to do so.

Many MSAs/CSAs are redefined over 10-year periods. Columbus, Atlanta, and Augusta MSAs/CSAs have been redefined in that time. Many cities in the Carolinas as well, so that's not significant. Savannah's CSA is very loose, and still doesn't even include one South Carolina county. It remains loose -- though it is growing faster in percentage terms than other GA 2nd-tier cities. Savannah is very competitive with Charleston in tourism (almost even) and the seaport (it's now moved ahead of the Port of Charleston). On most other levels, Charleston is miles ahead.

[OldSchoolSavannah]

Thanks for the continued insights. I don't want to deviate too far from the original thesis of population growth and perception...

For many years Augusta has been viewed as the second largest MSA in Georgia...40% of it population comes from across the Savannah River (North Augusta and Aiken County, SC). The same to a lesser degree, but in reverse, has been the case with Georgia's suburbs contributing to Chattanooga, TN's MSA. I don't know this for sure, but as I look around the country Savannah might be the largest market in the country that borders another state, where there has been no defined relationship as either an MSA or CSA across that border. Part of that is geography, of course, with the distance between population centers in Beaufort County being a minimum of 10-15 miles from the state line. Up until the last decade or so, it was probably true that the jobs market in Chatham County was unable to draw large enough numbers of South Carolinians to justify such a relationship. That is what I am arguing is changing rapidly, and will re-define (again) Savannah's MSA/CSA, to include at least Jasper and perhaps significant portions of southwest Beaufort County.

As I said earlier, Hilton Head Island is an isolated community that in many ways has no need of Savannah, or Savannah it. But since the port has taken off since around 2005 or so and the logistics/distribution industry has become dominant, that is changing the way labor in the region sees Savannah. In 2000, the best job a working class individual across the river could get was maybe in the service industry, working on a Hilton Head resort...low paying. Now the same people are able to cross the river, and get a logistics job and make a more respectable wage ($15-18+ an hour), and the commute is much easier. These jobs are coming online as fast as they can be filled. I work in Effingham, as earlier stated, and the labor market is very interesting to watch there, too. Many are military, and many work at the port or Gulfstream. But many work in South Carolina...they commute to the Bluffton area, and that is a newish development as well. The point is that this may not be Savannah centric as much as it is regional. Time will tell.

It wasn't my original intent to bring up the the Savannah vs. Charleston debate, which is endless, but more to illustrate that Savannah is perceived as smaller than it really is. That has begun to borne out and will only be seen to be more true in the years to come, I believe, as the definitions of the MSA begin to expand for the reasons discussed in this thread.