Let's just poke some holes in the very first one, I didn't read all of it because quite frankly when the first "list" is ridiculous I lose interest.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Thomas Frey
Jobs Going Away
- Power generation plants will begin to close down.
- Coal plants will begin to close down.
- Many railroad and transportation workers will no longer be needed.
- Even wind farms, natural gas, and bio-fuel generators will begin to close down.
- Ethanol plants will be phased out or repurposed.
- Utility company engineers, gone.
- Line repairmen, gone.
New Jobs Created
- Manufacturing power generation units the size of ac units will go into full production.
- Installation crews will begin to work around the clock.
- The entire national grid will need to be taken down (a 20 year project). Much of it will be recycled and the recycling process alone will employ many thousands of people.
- Micro-grid operations will open in every community requiring a new breed of engineers, managers, and regulators.
- Many more.
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OK, he says that the power plants will close down, but there will be manufacturing jobs created to make these "power generation units". We all know those jobs will be in China. However EVERYTHING that we make will break eventually. So not only will we need the installation crews, but we'll need maintenance. Ever try and get a new modem from your ISP? Now what if you were out of power for that weekend instead of just out of internet access? Let alone the fact that he seems to assume everything will be instantaneous, one day you'll wake up and there will be someone to tear out your power lines and plug in a magic box for you.
Coal plants will close down, ok sure no more coal power plants, I think he covered that already in "Power generation plants will begin to close down." Unless he means coal mines, sure coal value would go down but go Wikipedia coal, there's other uses for the stuff. I'm not saying it wouldn't be a major blow, but it wouldn't completely eliminate the need for coal.
Railroads and transportation workers would still be needed to ship these magic power units from the ports (arriving fresh from China) to everyone else. Again I'm sure there would be a decline but it wouldn't be the end of it all.
Wind farms, natural gas, bio-fuel will be around for a long time to come, there's too many people that are all about the "renewable eco friendly" stuff. Bio-fuel being used in cars, natural gas for heating (takes a LOOOOOT of electricity to replace that kind of heat with 100% reliability. I know, I live in Alaska).
Ethanol can be used a a high octane fuel, and as Wikipedia states "The largest single use of ethanol is as a motor
fuel and
fuel additive." Not to mention that Ethanol is in not only the adult beverages in your refrigerator but in your hand sanitizer at home/work/everywhere you go. It's also useful as a solvent, you can find it in paints, markers, deodorant, perfume, etc. Again go Wikipedia it, it's kinda neat stuff (and downright tasty too!)
Utility company engineers, I'm not 100% sure what he's talking about here, not gonna lie, but if your job title includes "engineer" I'm sure you're smart enough to figure out how to fit in to the new system and still make big bucks.
Line repairmen, there's no power lines at all? So you're going to have this magic box that's going to spit out alllllllll the power you could ever want right next to your house? I'd want that sucker on the other end of the property myself. So there's still gonna be some lines, and he does mention recycling the current grid, they can be doing that for the next 20 years. They can also put their high voltage electrical experience to good use in making and maintaining the connection between your house and this magic box.
Just a few things that really stand out to me as glaring errors in the speculation, let's also not forget that once upon a time Thomas Watson (CEO of IBM from 1874 to 1956) said "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers"
NOTE: There is some discrepancy in this quote's authenticity, but I've seen it quoted in many books, magazines, and articles. SOMEONE said it at some time, or something similar to it. Here's a few others from Wikipedia for grins.
"I went to see Professor Douglas Hartree, who had built the first differential analyzers in England and had more experience in using these very specialized computers than anyone else. He told me that, in his opinion, all the calculations that would ever be needed in this country could be done on the three digital computers which were then being built—one in Cambridge, one in
Teddington, and one in Manchester. No one else, he said, would ever need machines of their own, or would be able to afford to buy them.
[17]"
"Originally one thought that if there were a half dozen large computers in this country, hidden away in research laboratories, this would take care of all requirements we had throughout the country.
[18][19]" -Howard H. Aiken (Ph.D. Physics from Harvard, conceptual designer of IBM's Harvard Mark 1 Computer)
My point being that people eminently qualified in the field on which they are speaking can make wild speculations that prove completely ridiculous in retrospect. Science fiction also told us we'd have flying cars and robots to warn us of danger 12 or more years ago.
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