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We've discussed this before, once the study is complete (estimated to be finished between 2019-2023) it will take a while to understand. I used the example of the human genome which was mapped in 1996 yet we still don't completely comprehend it all.
However due to the human genome project biology and genetics are now a form of information technology. Plus you can see the impact of the brain projects now even though its 5 years away from being completed.
However due to the human genome project biology and genetics are now a form of information technology. Plus you can see the impact of the brain projects now even though its 5 years away from being completed.
We'll see, going back to "Her" I recall Ray saying that it estimates a year has passed from when Theo acquired Samantha and he still thought a year is to quick for her to have advanced so far beyond him.
Also, I was looking at some of his predictions and the following one is likely not going to happen by 2019 as he claims.
-Computers do most of the vehicle driving—-humans are in fact prohibited from driving on highways unassisted. Furthermore, when humans do take over the wheel, the onboard computer system constantly monitors their actions and takes control whenever the human drives recklessly. As a result, there are very few transportation accidents.
-Most roads now have automated driving systems—networks of monitoring and communication devices that allow computer-controlled automobiles to safely navigate.
2019 is supposed to be the year when some car manufactures begin selling self driving cars, but since I'm sure they'll be very expensive, I doubt they'll make a law that prohibits people that don't own one from driving. Also, on NPR a guy mentioned that building the infrastructure on the roads to connect all the cars would take far more than a decade, so again I feel Ray gets a little over ahead with some of his predictions not considering other factors.
Another far fetched prediction for 2019 is that most students will be taught by simulated teachers and advanced smart software, he really thinks there won't be anymore human teachers in 5 years?
We've discussed this before, once the study is complete (estimated to be finished between 2019-2023) it will take a while to understand. I used the example of the human genome which was mapped in 1996 yet we still don't completely comprehend it all.
That's a nearly perfect analogy. In the mid-90s there all sorts of bold predictions related to the human genome that never materialized. One of the most popular that is that it would lead to the eradication of all genetic diseases. That hasn't happened because epidemiology is extraordinarily complex, and there are numerous other factors -in uterine environment, nutrition, etc.- that are also factors.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie
There are many projects out there that are reverse engineering the brain. The two largest ones are the Blue Brain Project in Europe and the Brain project in the United States. However there are more then I think anyone knows in the world. All of which will help our understanding of the brain around 2019.
For the Blue Brain Project there is a documentary. The project leader Dr. Henry Markram says they should be done around 2019. That is 10 years before AI will be as intelligent as a human.
There's also a project I read about in National Geographic that is analyzing every individual neuron. It is not expected to be completed until the middle of the century, and even then they don't know how useful the results will be.
The key word in your statement is help. These and other research projects will likely improve our understanding of how the mind works, but they will ultimately be more mere pieces of a whole we don't understand.
We're nowhere near a comprehensive understanding of how the mind works, and until such an understanding is reached it will be logically impossible for the singularity to occur. We can't understand if two complex things are alike or equal until we understand them both: In the case of the human mind, that won't happen by 2030.
According to projects like the blue brain project they will be done by 2019. 2023 at the latest. If you have time watch the documentaries as they are very good.
By 2019 a computer will be able to simulate the human brain so that is why its the earliest it can be done.
This is from the web page:
The ultimate goal of the Blue Brain Project is to reverse engineer the mammalian brain. To achieve this goal the project has set itself four key objectives:
Create a Brain Simulation Facility with the ability to build models of the healthy and diseased brain, at different scales, with different levels of detail in different species
Demonstrate the feasibility and value of this strategy by creating and validating a biologically detailed model of the neocortical column in the somatosensory cortex of young rats
Use this model to discover basic principles governing the structure and function of the brain
Exploit these principles to create larger more detailed brain models, and to develop strategies to model the complete human brain.
We'll see, going back to "Her" I recall Ray saying that it estimates a year has passed from when Theo acquired Samantha and he still thought a year is to quick for her to have advanced so far beyond him.
Computers double every year why I said in 2029 computers will be as intelligent as humans then by 2030 be more intelligent. I posted a interview of William Hertling who goes into detail on this.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Canaan-84
Also, I was looking at some of his predictions and the following one is likely not going to happen by 2019 as he claims.
-Computers do most of the vehicle driving—-humans are in fact prohibited from driving on highways unassisted. Furthermore, when humans do take over the wheel, the onboard computer system constantly monitors their actions and takes control whenever the human drives recklessly. As a result, there are very few transportation accidents.
-Most roads now have automated driving systems—networks of monitoring and communication devices that allow computer-controlled automobiles to safely navigate.
2019 is supposed to be the year when some car manufactures begin selling self driving cars, but since I'm sure they'll be very expensive, I doubt they'll make a law that prohibits people that don't own one from driving. Also, on NPR a guy mentioned that building the infrastructure on the roads to connect all the cars would take far more than a decade, so again I feel Ray gets a little over ahead with some of his predictions not considering other factors.
He has talked about that. He was right as we did have the technology but it has been slower to implement. That being said he did agree that this was one of his few predictions he missed.
According to projects like the blue brain project they will be done by 2019. 2023 at the latest. If you have time watch the documentaries as they are very good.
By 2019 a computer will be able to simulate the human brain so that is why its the earliest it can be done.
No, we don't understand enough about the brain for that to be possible. Until we do that is logically impossible.
Those 'documentaries' are really just infomercials: They're selling a product or idea, and as such are inherently biased. Have you read any articles by pure scientists? That is, people who don't have a monetary or ideological interest, and are more likely to reach more impartial conclusions? I have, and most are skeptical than those in your infomercials.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie
He has talked about that. He was right as we did have the technology but it has been slower to implement. That being said he did agree that this was one of his few predictions he missed.
Since at least one of his predictions is wrong, why are you so certain his most significant prediction will be realized?
You only seem to consider info and perspectives that are consistent with your preconceptions. As such, you are a zealot who worships at the alter of the singularity, with Kurzweil a your demigod. Like all fanatics, you refuse to even consider that you might be wrong.
It'll be interesting to see if this thread is still around in 2030 when you will or won't be proven wrong.
No, we don't understand enough about the brain for that to be possible. Until we do that is logically impossible.
Those 'documentaries' are really just infomercials: They're selling a product or idea, and as such are inherently biased. Have you read any articles by pure scientists? That is, people who don't have a monetary or ideological interest, and are more likely to reach more impartial conclusions? I have, and most are skeptical than those in your infomercials.
Critics said the same thing about the genome project yet they did it in time. Given the amount of projects working on reverse engineering the brain and how much they have done already I have 100% confidence that they will be done by 2023 at the latest and more likely 2019.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apathizer
Since at least one of his predictions is wrong, why are you so certain his most significant prediction will be realized?
You only seem to consider info and perspectives that are consistent with your preconceptions. As such, you are a zealot who worships at the alter of the singularity, with Kurzweil a your demigod. Like all fanatics, you refuse to even consider that you might be wrong.
It'll be interesting to see if this thread is still around in 2030 when you will or won't be proven wrong.
I know it looks like I worship Ray Kurzweil honestly I do not. I will even admit there are times he goes further then information technology and predicting driverless cars was one of them. However he does far less then everyone else who looks at the future why overall I like what he says. Plus the main argument he makes is one that I have known since the 80's just never thought about the long term implications and that is information technology advancing exponentially. If you think about how that one law has changed the world since the 80's its mind boggling. The same thing will happen in the next 16 years unless computers stop advancing exponentially and I am certain that will not happen. Plus now that things like genetics and biology are information technology the advancements they will see in the next 16 years will be just as dramatic. That is why I am as certain as one can be the singularity will be here by 2030. I want to say 100% but nothing is 100% so I say 99.9%.
If city data is around then ya it will be fun to say I told you so. However I do think that by the end of this decade it will be obvious we are headed to the singularity why I call the 2020's the pre-singularity.
Computers double every year why I said in 2029 computers will be as intelligent as humans then by 2030 be more intelligent. I posted a interview of William Hertling who goes into detail on this.
He has talked about that. He was right as we did have the technology but it has been slower to implement. That being said he did agree that this was one of his few predictions he missed.
That's not his only blunder, that 2019 predictions about cars and teachers not being humans was made in his 1999 book. In his 2005 book, he made a revision of his predictions, some of which did not come to pass such as:
2010:
--Supercomputers will have the same raw computing power as human brains, though the software to emulate human thinking on those computers does not yet exist. (IBM Sequoia)
---Computers will start to disappear as distinct physical objects, meaning many will have nontraditional shapes or will be embedded in clothing and everyday objects.
---Full-immersion audio-visual virtual reality will exist.
2015:
---By now, it is likely that "clean a house" will be within the capabilities of a household robot.
Also, in his 1999 book he was still making predictions for 2049, 2072 and 2099, which is odd considering that he said it was impossible to make predictions after the singularity which is supposed to occur in 2045. In fact a lot of his predictions from his 1999 book did not come to pass especially his 2009 predictions.
That's not his only blunder, that 2019 predictions about cars and teachers not being humans was made in his 1999 book. In his 2005 book, he made a revision of his predictions, some of which did not come to pass such as:
2010:
--Supercomputers will have the same raw computing power as human brains, though the software to emulate human thinking on those computers does not yet exist. (IBM Sequoia)
---Computers will start to disappear as distinct physical objects, meaning many will have nontraditional shapes or will be embedded in clothing and everyday objects.
---Full-immersion audio-visual virtual reality will exist.
2015:
---By now, it is likely that "clean a house" will be within the capabilities of a household robot.
Also, in his 1999 book he was still making predictions for 2049, 2072 and 2099, which is odd considering that he said it was impossible to make predictions after the singularity which is supposed to occur in 2045. In fact a lot of his predictions from his 1999 book did not come to pass especially his 2009 predictions.
It's just like people who were predicting that the world would end by the year 2000. Then 2008. Now, it's what 2016? 2024?
The singularity is an ideological belief, not a futuristic certainty. This is no such thing as a futuristic certainty, because, by definition, it's impossible to be certain about something that hasn't happened yet.
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However I do think that by the end of this decade it will be obvious we are headed to the singularity why I call the 2020's the pre-singularity.
