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Virtual reality has really hit the main stream, much as Ray Kurzweil predicted, as now Sony is coming out with one. I saw this video on YouTube where people are critiquing it. Honestly I have been waiting for this technology and if its ready and as good as they say I will get one for Christmas. I mean imagine how fun it would be to play a story game like Star Trek with this?
Well first of all, I'm not your professor or something so please stop telling me I have to prove things to you, we are talking about the singularity, the moment you can't know what will happen!
Sorry...
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Originally Posted by Valmond
Still, I think that CPU power for the buck fills all your 1-5 arguments. but you cherry picked energy efficiency as a straw man to "prove me wrong". I'm not blind you know ;-)
The thing about making arguments from exponentially dropping costs per unit performance is that the declining exponential must apply to all contributions to the cost, not just some of them.
If you add a constant to an exponential, you get a horizontal asymptote greater than zero. So I would argue that I'm not exactly cherry picking here - if a single cost factor is fixed, even if every other cost factor is on a declining exponential, your cost will hit a floor that it cannot go below. As long as I am only trying to demonstrate that point, rather than a stronger claim that the cost (adjusted for inflation) will not fall below today's value, then the argument succeeds even if the cost component involved was "selectively chosen" for discussion
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Originally Posted by Valmond
In science people (scientists!) usually go through three stages when new things come around:
1) It's the most stupid thing I've heard/seen
2) We must stop this, this is just not true/bad (<- for me, you are here)
3) I've always said so/thought so
You can only use this in hindsight, since it applies only to successful innovations and not to failed ones. Therefore, using it as an argument to support your claim about future technology is to employ circular reasoning.
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Originally Posted by Valmond
So all this proving and so is fun and dandy but it doesn't help anyone predict the future, because, as we know, the future isn't perfectly predictable.
What I do is seeing a hundred lines zooming in on a target since decades, getting closer every year and draw conclusions.
Like them or hate them, you can even continue to try to debunk them, please do but you could also contribute what you believe the future will be. I have asked you several times but you don't seems to want to share your thoughts which I think is a shame.
Anything specific? I did share my thoughts on some things already, as in posts #1561 and #1597...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Valmond
ps. for the solar, yeah of course, that is why I'm tinkering with numbers and so instead of buying. At 2 years (maybe a bit more for the fun) ROI I'd jump on it if there isn't special cases (much better tech to be expected soon for example).
Virtual reality has really hit the main stream, much as Ray Kurzweil predicted, as now Sony is coming out with one. I saw this video on YouTube where people are critiquing it. Honestly I have been waiting for this technology and if its ready and as good as they say I will get one for Christmas. I mean imagine how fun it would be to play a story game like Star Trek with this?
Does that allow you to adjust the focus if you use corrective lenses?
I agree, however, I am trying to be conservative on this one. However if it happens faster then I will switch sooner. Every year I check to see if its worth it or not.
I was born in 1973 and graduated from high school in 1991 then went to college. I actually like the time I was born in as I will get to really view what life was like before and after the singularity. I actually did not read about it till 2009 and since then it has become my hobby to study it. I do believe that 99.9% of the people living today have no idea what is coming in the next 20 years. That is quickly changing and you can tell from the pop culture as more tv shows and movies are talking about either directly or indirectly. The next movie to watch about it will be out next month and is called Automata.
About the same here (well except the location), born in 1971 in Sweden, spent 6 years in college, moved to France and yeah, it is actually even better when you "know" a bit of what is going to happen, even if it isn't happening exactly like what I think, it doesn't matter very much because I follow it and saw the changes that came and hopefully I'll see those of tomorrow too!
It is a bit like be at the cinema, in the front row, watching a really long hi-tech film!
In the local newspaper there was an article about a shop selling wearable tech, hook your phone in your sweater, recharge, change volume, sound etc. (don't know the exact specs, maybe I'll drop by to check it out) it's even washable. This is a shop in a quite 'classy' emplacement which IMO means people are believing it will sell. Anyway, wearable tech is definitely here.
About the same here (well except the location), born in 1971 in Sweden, spent 6 years in college, moved to France and yeah, it is actually even better when you "know" a bit of what is going to happen, even if it isn't happening exactly like what I think, it doesn't matter very much because I follow it and saw the changes that came and hopefully I'll see those of tomorrow too!
It is a bit like be at the cinema, in the front row, watching a really long hi-tech film!
In the local newspaper there was an article about a shop selling wearable tech, hook your phone in your sweater, recharge, change volume, sound etc. (don't know the exact specs, maybe I'll drop by to check it out) it's even washable. This is a shop in a quite 'classy' emplacement which IMO means people are believing it will sell. Anyway, wearable tech is definitely here.
Knowing my personality it would not have worked out so well. This way I was able to enjoy high school, college and grad school thinking I was living the only time I would have my youth to the fullest. If I had known then what I know now it would made that time less special and to be honest less enjoyable. Now being in my late 30's and early 40's was the best time for me to figure it out as this is when normally people have their mid life crisis but now knowing what I now I am just starting life so in a way I feel like I am 20 again but instead of trying to figure out what kind of college education I want I am trying to figure out how to best be prepared for the coming singularity in about 20 years.
Edit: Because of the coming singularity I am the opposite of what most people I have known have said. They say things like I wish I had known in high school what I know now and I think if this was say 1964 I would be saying that but the singularity changes even that for me.
While I have not read the entire 172 pages of this thread, I have seen a few comments here and there that they believe that technological singularity will be achieved in our lifetimes... and I think it's highly unlikely to happen within the next 100 years. The pinnacle of technological singularity is the creation of a superintelligent AI where the AI's intelligence far outstrips that of a human's. (Here's Wikipedia's article on it: Technological singularity - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)
Even the best computers are not able to mimic human speech to the point of fooling people into thinking it's human (Turing test). I really don't think Singularity will be possible any time soon.
Unless of course, everyone is talking about a different definition of singularity. If that is the case, please enlighten me!
Virtual reality has really hit the main stream, much as Ray Kurzweil predicted, as now Sony is coming out with one. I saw this video on YouTube where people are critiquing it. Honestly I have been waiting for this technology and if its ready and as good as they say I will get one for Christmas. I mean imagine how fun it would be to play a story game like Star Trek with this?
I have only tried the first version(Oculus rift) and it is kind of mind blowing, you look down and you don't see your body (it really startled me), it's weird, but it definitely fools or at least fooled my brain in spite of the apparent pixels!
My problem is I'm subject to motion sickness, I felt quite queasy for an hour or two afterwards. They say response times has been improved and so but I'll have to test it before I buy it but if I can my plan was to get one for Christmas too and if I can't I think I'll get me a 3D printer.
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and if I can't I think I'll get me a 3D printer.
