Thomas Bayes, Richard Gott and Doomsday (power, sound, computer)

[LesLucid]

This one is news to me. I guess one would say it’s based on probability theory and trusted in all kinds of scenarios; it gives some interesting results when applied to humanity.

“‘Doomsday’ Math Says Humanity May Have Just 760 Years Left
An 18th-century equation that powers today’s computer algorithms also predicts the demise of humankind”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/doomsda...ft-11561655839

https://william-poundstone.com/blog/...alculation-faq

[Tek_Freek]

Considering the rapid changes we are seeing now, and the lack (at least by the United States) of doing anything about it I'll wager humankind will be extinct 50 years after my death.

[rjshae]

That math is based on the premise that human kind will only ever remain in its current form. If we transform into something else, different conclusions will follow.

[LesLucid]

Originally Posted by rjshae

That math is based on the premise that human kind will only ever remain in its current form. If we transform into something else, different conclusions will follow.

That sounds reasonable. If we can prevent poisoning our planet and every living thing on it with Chernobyls, Fukushimas, Kyshtyms, etc., in 760 years, we will either be off planet, machine intelligences, or both and then the same formula could be applied to those individual situations. If the rate of change keeps accelerating, it might be difficult though to apply that calculation in many situations.