Do We Put Too Much Faith in Technology and "Futurism"? (format, power)
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[b]Here is the latest article on solar on how it is now reaching parity with fossil fuels. This is great news for the world and is more proof that technology will help solve our problems.
Hmmm, Der Spiegel says something quite different:
Quote:
Germany's agressive and reckless expansion of wind and solar power has come with a hefty pricetag for consumers, and the costs often fall disproportionately on the poor. Government advisors are calling for a completely new start.
German consumers already pay the highest electricity prices in Europe. But because the government is failing to get the costs of its new energy policy under control, rising prices are already on the horizon. Electricity is becoming a luxury good in Germany, and one of the country's most important future-oriented projects is acutely at risk.
Actually what we are discussing is well within the spirit of this thread, are we putting to much faith in technology. My response is no and solar is a great example of that as it will be the reason we do not have to worry about climate change.
As far as the article. I am not saying its a lie as I am sure they believe it but they are looking at solar from a historical perspective, even if its just 6 months. I agree that if solar was not advancing so fast then it would not be the preferred way to generate electricity and soon but all the data shows that it is advancing that fast. So unless all the studies are wrong then we will be using solar by 2030.
BTW you can't say that all the studies about climate change that say we need to be off fossil fuels are right yet all the studies done by scientists about solar is wrong. You can't pick and choose what studies you want to believe or not when it comes to science, especially when so many are in agreement with each other.
Now I know that many tech orient people are divorced from real interaction with real live people so perhaps it isn't amazing that you steadfastly refuse to address the most fundamental issue, technology doesn't fundamentally change human behavior, only humans can do that. You can have all the solar panels in the world but the U.S. in 30 years will still be using an electrical grid built to deliver 120v of electricity to the average American home. We have the technology to put even the most meager broadband internet access in every home in the country, but we don't. We have the technology to track airplanes during every minute of their flight, but we can't find a 110,100 lbs, plane with a 212 ft wingspan. We got technology out of the whazoo that could solve all of man's greatest problems...except one, man himself and no amount of TED broadcasts is going to change that basic fact.
That's a fairly cynical view of things. And, I don't understand what human behavior has to do with improving technologies? Throughout history, humans have been adopting newer technologies with relative ease.
A few things need to happen to radically change that way we generate and consume power. I am not talking about incremental improvements in solar and wind, more extreme changes - what I like to call paradigm shifts. This would include things like:
Nuclear Fusion for Unlimited Energy
According to very recent studies and data, we are very close to limitless renewable energy from nuclear fusion - a self-sustaining reaction
Scientists in California said on Wednesday night that they have for the first time managed to release more energy from their nuclear fusion experiment than they put into it, which marks a critical threshold in eventually achieving the goal of a self-sustaining nuclear-fusion reaction.
Superconductors that work at room temperature
Labs around the world are working on solving this problem. And many say that we are closer than we have ever been. A breakthrough in Superconducting would change everything, including how we think about generating, storing and using power.
The microscopic structure of high-temperature superconductors has long puzzled scientists seeking to harness their virtually limitless technological potential. Now at last researchers have deciphered the cryptic structure of one class of the superconductors, providing a basis for theories about how they manage to transport electricity with perfect efficiency when cooled, and how scientists might raise their operating temperature closer to the climes of everyday life.
This goal, if realized, could make an array of fantastical-sounding technologies commercially viable, from power grids that never lose energy and cheap water purification systems to magnetically levitating vehicles. Scientists believe room-temperature superconductivity would have an impact on a par with that of the laser, a 1960 invention that now plays an important role in an estimated $7.5 trillion in economic activity.
And I didn't even talk about the 6 alternate energy sources that was published by Harvard, or the monumental improvements in battery/ storage technology. Or the use of nanotechology for energy creation. I can go on ..... but all I am trying to get across is that we are just 1-2 breakthroughs away a paradigm shift.
Last edited by sandman249; 05-09-2014 at 04:04 PM..
The future ain't what it used to be! ....Those were the words of the immortal Yogi Berra….or was it Yogi Bear? Anyway…. I think he was trying to say that the future always seems brighter from a distance! The closer we get to it, the more it loses its luster.
Nuclear Fusion for Unlimited Energy
According to very recent studies and data, we are very close to limitless renewable energy from nuclear fusion - a self-sustaining reaction
Scientists in California said on Wednesday night that they have for the first time managed to release more energy from their nuclear fusion experiment than they put into it, which marks a critical threshold in eventually achieving the goal of a self-sustaining nuclear-fusion reaction.
Superconductors that work at room temperature
Labs around the world are working on solving this problem. And many say that we are closer than we have ever been. A breakthrough in Superconducting would change everything, including how we think about generating, storing and using power.
And I didn't even talk about the 6 alternate energy sources that was published by Harvard, or the monumental improvements in battery/ storage technology. Or the use of nanotechology for energy creation. I can go on ..... but all I am trying to get across is that we are just 1-2 breakthroughs away a paradigm shift.
The paradigm shift will definitely happen if nuclear fusion becomes a reality. Think about how virtually free and unlimited energy would change the world overnight. Most products would become drastically cheaper (very close to free) --- not only because transportation costs to get them from point of manufacture to consumers goes to virtually zero --- but also because we could have mass-produced electric-powered robots operating 24/7 on free energy to manufacture those products.
When you have a robot that can farm arable land, irrigated by endless fresh water produced by free energy by converting it from seawater, and robots harvest those crops, ship them to groceries and food processing plants for free because of self-driving trucks running on batteries powered by free electricity, and the final food products put on shelves in grocery stores by robots running on free electricity --- then food for everyone becomes FREE. Apply this same logic to any other product that can be mass-produced with robots and it's basically a world that can supply unlimited resources to the population for very little cost or free.
The biggest hurdle to this future is energy. A global economy running on oil, coal, and natural gas that is becoming more expensive to procure every year is doomed to collapse by the year 2100. I used to think a global economy running on wind and solar by 2100 could achieve the dream of unlimited free energy, but that involves an enormous infrastructure investment in the trillions of dollars and therefore nuclear fusion might get us to that promised land 50 years quicker and a hell of a lot cheaper.
It would also help if humanoid robots developed quickly to capitalize on the unlimited free energy when it becomes available, but adaptable robots will prolly proliferate the quickest --- ie, why make a humanoid robot drive a farm tractor when you can just create a self-driving robot tractor that performs all functions of a human operator.
All the data and models show that solar will be 50% cheaper then fossil fuels by 2030 and nearly free by 2035 so we will reach your vision of nearly free electricity and soon.
As far the impact of nearly free energy. Well said and honestly while I knew it will have a dramatic impact on the economy you stated in a way that really made me understand how and why. Thanks.
Technology is solving all those issues you posted about, even climate change. In fact the UN came out with a report that says we must be mostly off fossil fuels by 2030. Good news is that by 2030 solar will be 50% cheaper then fossil fuels and most people will be on solar. The trend is pointing to that more every year. My personal goal is to be on solar by 2020, 10 years before the date the UN says we must be on it.
Keep in mind, solar power is becoming cheaper because it's all moving to China where it's made by what is essentially slave labor and with no environmental regulations.
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