Extraterrestrial life: Fermi Paradox and the Great Filter (electric, infrared, material)
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I heard about the great filter idea as an answer to the Fermi paradox about 7 or 8 years ago. It occurred to me that the great filter might actually be social media. As soon as a civilization reaches the point that anyone can tweet (or similar) messages to be broadcast to the entire rest of the population, the result is infighting, tribalism, and a inward-turned focus on winning Internet (or equivalent) points and making witty comments to signal one's own value to the rest of the community. At this point, the civilization no longer looks to or takes an interest in the stars or other civilizations.
That's the thing, a lot of people, including many on C-D, like to use UFO and aliens/extraterrestrials interchangeably. A UFO (Unidentified Flying Object) doesn't have to have alien/extraterrestrial origins.
Pretty hairsplitting. People don't use the term UFO to refer to, for example, the many moving lights I can see by stepping out into my yard. (I live near Denver International Airport.)
While you can get all prim and tight-lipped and insist it means "an apparently Flying Object which I cannot personally identify," the term almost universally means "some kind of weird flying blob or light that can't possibly have a rational explanation."
Just as people using the term Bigfoot aren't referring to me, although I wear an 11 6E+.
These things are actually the old historical 'Archons', they are not 'advanced beings from some other place or dimension'.
'Aliens/ UFOs' are just their modern day disguise, in the past, they were called demons, and LOTS of people were deceived, 'demons' were blamed for all sorts of things, sicknesses, mental problems, crops failing, etc etc.
Not really here to get into a case-by-case argument; I'll simply say that between errors of original recording and errors introduced by endless retellings, it can be impossible to say what was seen, how it was actually perceived or whether the event even occurred. A vast number of cases from history such as you cite are, if you run it down, recorded by a monk or scribe on second- or third- or even folklore tellings.
How would a third-hand telling of some fishermen or peasants seeing, say, a small meteor strike in the ocean read, after retelling, polishing and then 'correction' by the scribe?
And it is quite common for modern recountings and collections to distort the actual historical account, either knowingly or through ingrained bias, to make it seem absolutely wondrous and without second possible explanation. See any collection of Nostradamus's prophecies with "interpretations" for hundreds of examples of historical accounts distorted to miraculously match Nossie's babblings. (When it's not actually the translated prophecy that's been fudged to match historical events.)
I understand you not wanting this thread to get into debating case by case, but the other part of my post still applies...in that we (the general public) are only privy to a certain amount of information in relation to this topic...MUCH of this is classified and simply out of our reach, so I dont think we can actually say the evidence exists or does not exist...we dont know what that evidence is, because its out of our reach.
Websites like the Black Vault and others have Govt and military documents that can be searched, in relation to this topic, the actual designation is UAP (not UFO), There are also a handful of other names govt, intel and military use to reference them.
With that being said, the fact that so much of this information has been classified and remains classified over the years, that alone is speaking volumes to what some of this information may be.
* I have some first hand experience with this,as a couple years ago, I contacted my state senators office about a UFO case (KY-Mitch McConnell), and I received a personal call from his office about it! Ive posted that story before but not sure if you read it or not. Their response basically confirmed what Ive been saying here..'That kind of information is kept highly classified'.
Science is filling in the parameters of the Drake equation with each new generation of instruments. Thanks to Kepler, we have a pretty good idea of how many starts have planets, with TESS we are measuring how many planets could be habitable, and with James Webb we'll be measuring the atmospheres to see how many potentially habitable planets actually are (and could even see signs of combustion). So give it time people.
The Great Filter is absolutely a possibility though. Probably right about now in a species development. Just look elsewhere on the CD forum. In centuries past, crazy people went to war with swords and spears, and there was only so much damage they could do. Now, crazy people could nuke the planet, or release an engineered virus that wipes everything out, etc. Even a simple stock market collapse could destabilize the whole house of cards.
If humans can't transcend their basic animal instincts, like fast, then our technology will be the end of us.
Science is filling in the parameters of the Drake equation with each new generation of instruments.
The first three, yes. The fourth one, potentially, if we reach the point where we can analyze exoplanet atmospheres well enough to establish a fossil-fuel-using civilization. (Pretty narrow criterion.) Or varying levels of methane (again, a weak indicator).
But the last three are pure guesswork and I can't see a way to establish anything but guesswork for their values. One nonsense factor in an equation renders the whole equation nonsensical.
Why serious SETI types keep putting so much credence on this rather whimsical framework for astro-department cocktail party debate mystifies me.
...we (the general public) are only privy to a certain amount of information in relation to this topic...MUCH of this is classified and simply out of our reach, so I dont think we can actually say the evidence exists or does not exist...
If your defense is down to this, you don't have one.
This contention, which is at the bottom of nearly every single pseudoscience belief from the 200mpg carburetor to lizard-men running the government, assumes that in X amount of years of public interest and study - in the case of UFOs, well over a hundred years with modern recording and validation equipment - not one shred of evidence has turned up that is not so highly classified that no one can even confirm its existence. Right.
There are very, very few things that are so secret and classified that even the idea of their existence is unknown. There are very few secret programs etc. that are not at least known by name and 'black box' parameters - e.g., it's an Air Force program having something to do with, say, satellite-killers. We may not know one thing past that, but such programs don't exist for decades, with hundreds of people involved, without at least the 'black box' level becoming visible.
Asserting that the government has some positive or irrefutable evidence of UFOs being alien craft, or the existence and visitation by aliens, and this information has remained completely opaque for decades, without even a valid leak that the evidence exists (regardless of what it actually is) is right up there with most new testament miracles in requiring deep faith to even consider.
And it's funny that those who claim the government can maintain this level of secrecy and control, over lifespans of involved personnel, are the ones who often scream about how generally lousy the institution is at doing its jobs.
Asserting that the government has some positive or irrefutable evidence of UFOs being alien craft, or the existence and visitation by aliens, and this information has remained completely opaque for decades, without even a valid leak that the evidence exists (regardless of what it actually is) is right up there with most new testament miracles in requiring deep faith to even consider.
Especially with recent incidents by people like Snowden and Manning, one would think some millennial engineer working out at Groom Lake with Top Secret Clearance would have decided by now to just "f-it all" and release classified information (after moving to Russia of course!) about what the government knows or has about aliens, unless there is nothing of course!
Especially with recent incidents by people like Snowden and Manning, one would think some millennial engineer working out at Groom Lake with Top Secret Clearance would have decided by now to just "f-it all" and release classified information (after moving to Russia of course!) about what the government knows or has about aliens, unless there is nothing of course!
My touchstone for this is a government conspiracy that could have (and eventually did) bring down an administration, that was at one point known to only six people, all of whom had the most powerful reasons for keeping it secret. It was exposed in a few months and laid bare within the year.
Good luck with those CTs that require hundreds or thousands of people keeping perfect omertà for decades.
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