How abnormal is this years fall/winter so far? (Seattle: ski resort, 2014)

[ctr88]

I've only been in Seattle about 11 months so I don't know what a normal winter is. It seems like this has been a very dry year so far? We got very little rain in Oct., Nov and so far in Dec. The Snoqualmie ski area is not open yet and it is Dec 21st. Is this abnormal?

[Hemlock140]

I have been here 20 years and find this to have been unusually dry, but it's happened several years before. usually we catch up later. This little local snow event yesterday is about normal, 2-3 times a year, though none last year. For the pass, the late opening happens probably 1/4 of the time, but they sometimes stay open until May with most of the snow coming later, in February-March. Most often Snoqualmie opens around Thanksgiving.

[Ira500]

It's been really unusual. September we usually get almost no rain. This past September was one of the wettest on record, then October and November were much drier than usual, and November is typically our wettest month. December so far has also been much drier. So it'll probably snow in July.

[Hemlock140]

Originally Posted by Ira500

It's been really unusual. September we usually get almost no rain. This past September was one of the wettest on record, then October and November were much drier than usual, and November is typically our wettest month. December so far has also been much drier. So it'll probably snow in July.

Remember that one. If it snows next July I'll buy you a beer, Ira.

[flyingsaucermom]

Originally Posted by Ira500

It's been really unusual. September we usually get almost no rain. This past September was one of the wettest on record, then October and November were much drier than usual, and November is typically our wettest month. December so far has also been much drier. So it'll probably snow in July.

I usually don't turn the heat off completely until June anyway... what's a couple more weeks?

[skiffrace]

I usually don't turn the heat off completely until June anyway... what's a couple more weeks?

The point is that 2013 is on track to be THE DRIEST and SUNNIEST year in the recorded history of West Coast in general, Seattle, Portland and all of PNW in particular.
The first 10 months of 2013 have also been the driest in California recorded history going back to 1895
California's Record Driest Year? - weather.com
Same thing for almost all other West Coast places.

It has very important implication for PNW hydro-power and agriculture, but that's nothing.
If this becomes a norm, it has the potential to make much of US West, including CA, AZ, NV and NM uninhabitable in the foreseeable future.All those places became settled in the 19th century - the wettest century in the last 2000 years (based on tree-rings measurements). If the annual rainfall decreases to third or quarter of what it's been recently, the life in the West as we know it will end.

[flyingsaucermom]

Originally Posted by skiffrace

The point is that 2013 is on track to be THE DRIEST and SUNNIEST year in the recorded history of West Coast in general, Seattle, Portland and all of PNW in particular.
The first 10 months of 2013 have also been the driest in California recorded history going back to 1895
[URL="http://www.weather.com/news/weather-forecast/california-record-driest-year-20131115"]California's Record Driest Year? - weather.com[/URL]
Same thing for almost all other West Coast places.

It has very important implication for PNW hydro-power and agriculture, but that's nothing.
If this becomes a norm, it has the potential to make much of US West, including CA, AZ, NV and NM uninhabitable in the foreseeable future.All those places became settled in the 19th century - the wettest century in the last 2000 years (based on tree-rings measurements). If the annual rainfall decreases to third or quarter of what it's been recently, the life in the West as we know it will end.

I was just trying for playful banter with some of the "regulars" here. Yes, I get the point. Go through my posts (actually, there are too many.. so don't) and you'll quickly see where I'm at on the climate change concept.

[JBVirtuoso]

Originally Posted by skiffrace

The point is that 2013 is on track to be THE DRIEST and SUNNIEST year in the recorded history of West Coast in general, Seattle, Portland and all of PNW in particular.
The first 10 months of 2013 have also been the driest in California recorded history going back to 1895
California's Record Driest Year? - weather.com
Same thing for almost all other West Coast places.

It has very important implication for PNW hydro-power and agriculture, but that's nothing.
If this becomes a norm, it has the potential to make much of US West, including CA, AZ, NV and NM uninhabitable in the foreseeable future.All those places became settled in the 19th century - the wettest century in the last 2000 years (based on tree-rings measurements). If the annual rainfall decreases to third or quarter of what it's been recently, the life in the West as we know it will end.

According to the NWS archives, the weather station at SeaTac has a rainfall deficit of 7.4" since October 1, so recorded rainfall is a little under half what it should be. But the yearly deficit is only 3.9". Fluctuations like that are perfectly normal. As for sun, that's a bit harder to figure out. I've found the NWS ratings for cloud cover, but I'm not sure exactly how that's converted to sunshine hours, which is normally how that statistic is reported.

In any case, I don't think we need to start panicking about a permanently dry PNW. Climate data shows that Seattle is getting wetter on average. Some regions in the West have reasons to be concerned (* ahem * the Colorado River basin), but the Northwest probably doesn't have to worry too much.

[Hemlock140]

People tell me I pay too much attention to the weather but I monitor temperature and rainfall to help maintain some 100 bonsai trees that I have,
as old as 145 years.

In September we had a record of over 6", normal is 1.5 - October and November ran about 3", normal would be about 9, so for the 3 months we are about 1.5" low. The rest of the year averaged normal. This month will make a big difference, we should get 5" and so far we are at about 25% of that. It is raining now, so that's good. We may end up a little low for the 2013 year, but when it comes to hydro power and aquifers/lakes filling up the snowfall in January and February makes the biggest difference. The Snoqualmie Pass has gotten 1-11" in the last 24 hours, hopefully it keeps up.

[ctr88]

Unless we get some big storms in the next week (and cold enough weather), The Summit at Snoqualmie ski resort probably won't open until 2014. How often does that happen? They only have a 9" base of snow right now. They must lose a lot of money to not be open during xmas break with all the kids off.