When will the $15 per hour minimum wage noticeably impact the economy? (Seattle: 2015, rent)

[AD1985]

I know there's a phased rollout for this increase, when do you think it will noticeably impact the economy for better or for worse?

[amaiunmei]

You won't see the impact for several years, because the increase is actually very small.

I want to note before I go further that the only town in this area that is required to pay their employees $15/hr as of today's date is Seatac ... and that's only if you don't work at the airport:

Washington state judge excludes airport from SeaTac's $15 minimum wage | Reuters

Seattle's minimum wage as of today is actually $11/hr. The increases are stepped in gradually, year over year: Large Employers | MWO | SOCR - CivilRights | seattle.gov

Note that Washington state's minimum wage is pegged to inflation:
History of Washington Minimum Wage

As of today, Washington state's minimum wage is $9.47/hr. The difference between the WA state minimum wage and Seattle's minimum wage is $1.53, but anywhere from 17 to 19 cents of that difference would have been met by inflation anyhow, so the difference in labor cost between a Seattle business and a non-Seattle business (that isn't in Seatac) right now amounts to about $1.34/hr. That's not a staggering amount.

Especially given the amount of money floating around in the Seattle area (that annualized average salary of a King County resident is over $80k, which is tens of thousands of dollars higher than the surrounding counties), that's simply the cost of doing business and believe me when I say that many companies will gladly pay it to keep their money train going.

[afdinatl]

Im sure rent will increase a little faster

[amaiunmei]

Originally Posted by afdinatl

Im sure rent will increase a little faster

I'm pretty sure there are greater forces affecting the cost of rent than the minimum wage.

Exhibit A: Amazon. 'Nuff said.

Exhibit B: Expedia ... The dark side of Expedia's move to Seattle | Crosscut

[Haakon]

Ivar

Increased cost to customers, no tips for employees, "But if the workers end up making less? “We’ll figure that out,” said Donegan, who served on the Seattle mayor’s advisory committee for the minimum-wage law.".

Good luck with that, seems like it's already going to have an impact on the people who eat there, a 21% increase in prices means a 21% increase in taxes too, so I'm sure Seattle politicians will love this experiment.

[afdinatl]

Originally Posted by amaiunmei

I'm pretty sure there are greater forces affecting the cost of rent than the minimum wage.

Exhibit A: Amazon. 'Nuff said.

Exhibit B: Expedia ... The dark side of Expedia's move to Seattle | Crosscut

This will just add the icing to the cake

[AD1985]

So if there is an across-the-board increase in prices and taxes, it sounds like all the wage increases will be for nothing. It'll all go to inflation.

will be interesting to see what really happens.

[Pyroninja42]

When you drive up wages, this has a huge effect on prices.

Hint: they don't make the prices go down.

[mkarch]

There won't be a noticeable impact. This only accelerates an existing trend. Plenty of people will pull out 'evidence' that it's having an impact, but it will be difficult to prove the changes would not have happened anyway.

The kinds of goods and services that will increase in price from the wage increase are already on a sharp upward trajectory due to housing and land costs, as well as longer commute times. None of those factors show any signs of a reversal.

[ZachF]

It won't be the panacea some on the left think it will be, nor will it usher in the apocalypse like some on the right seem to think.