What is the typical effect of El Nino on the Seattle region? (buying, shop)

[pnwguy2]

Or maybe not. Climate change is real.

Perhaps we are into a new cycle where the west will be dry and hot, and the east will be cool and wet. I don't discount any of this. Problematic for both coasts, if this is true.

[flyingsaucermom]

I think there are two events colliding and making one big cluster---- of a summer.

Yes, I think there is some weather cycle occurring that naturally happens outside of climate change, but I also believe it's being exacerbated by the changing climate.

Today I spoke with a woman that got back from the UK this weekend. She reported the "strange" and "disturbing" heat in London.. highs in the 90's, similar to us.

Later this evening I spoke to a native-born Russian. We were talking about our Seattle heat, pondering the same debate as this thread and he shared with us how while visiting Siberia in January and February of this year he was similarly disturbed by the weather there. Usually it is -30 degrees celsius, but they experienced days of +1 degree celcius, or in American standards... above freezing in a climate that ought to be -22 degrees fahrenheit.

Earlier we had reports of India's heatwave.

Let's not get into a discussion about melting ice caps

Sure places like Texas are having a milder summer, but not unusually cold... just more average... which seems "weird"... that's sadly how used to this I've gotten..

[FrankSpencer]

Originally Posted by pnwguy2

Or maybe not. Climate change is real.

Perhaps we are into a new cycle where the west will be dry and hot, and the east will be cool and wet. I don't discount any of this. Problematic for both coasts, if this is true.

That might be the way things are heading - who knows - but climate change is very unlikely to happen so quickly.

I'd put a lot of money on cold and snowy winters being the predominant weather patterns in the Cascades for a long time to come, and people on here complaining about grey, cool summers in Seattle. I mean - look at the weather out there today!! Grey, drizzle - these Seattle summers suck

[Garfunkle524]

Originally Posted by FrankSpencer

That might be the way things are heading - who knows - but climate change is very unlikely to happen so quickly.

This. Noticeable weather changes year-to-year are perfectly normal. Any trends that emerge as a result of the changing climate won't be noticeable over one or two years. It takes far longer than that.

[FrankSpencer]

Originally Posted by flyingsaucermom

I think there are two events colliding and making one big cluster---- of a summer.

Yes, I think there is some weather cycle occurring that naturally happens outside of climate change, but I also believe it's being exacerbated by the changing climate.

Today I spoke with a woman that got back from the UK this weekend. She reported the "strange" and "disturbing" heat in London.. highs in the 90's, similar to us.

Later this evening I spoke to a native-born Russian. We were talking about our Seattle heat, pondering the same debate as this thread and he shared with us how while visiting Siberia in January and February of this year he was similarly disturbed by the weather there. Usually it is -30 degrees celsius, but they experienced days of +1 degree celcius, or in American standards... above freezing in a climate that ought to be -22 degrees fahrenheit.

Earlier we had reports of India's heatwave.

Let's not get into a discussion about melting ice caps

Sure places like Texas are having a milder summer, but not unusually cold... just more average... which seems "weird"... that's sadly how used to this I've gotten..

I grew up in England, and believe it or not there were days in the 90's in London back then. For example - the summer of 1976. Phew wot a scorcher!!! For example:

"Heathrow had 16 consecutive days over 30 °C (86 °F) from 23 June to 8 July[4] and for 15 consecutive days from 23 June to 7 July temperatures reached 32.2 °C (90 °F) somewhere in England. Furthermore, five days saw temperatures exceed 35 °C (95 °F). On 28 June, temperatures reached 35.6 °C (96.1 °F) in Southampton, the highest June temperature recorded in the UK. The hottest day of all was 3 July, with temperatures reaching 35.9 °C (96.6 °F) in Cheltenham, one of the hottest July days on record in the UK."

I'm certain climate change is real. But unless things go really screwy, looking at one offs is not informative. It's the trends that are revealing - and things like shrinking ice caps and glaciers. There might be a tipping point where some event accelerates change, but I'd be amazed if we were there yet.

[flyingsaucermom]

Originally Posted by Garfunkle524

This. Noticeable weather changes year-to-year are perfectly normal. Any trends that emerge as a result of the changing climate won't be noticeable over one or two years. It takes far longer than that.

What are your credentials to make the statement? I follow what science and scientists say and they say it's happening now and it's been happening for many years, if not decades.

Look beyond year-to-year changes and you see a trend and the trend is consistent with scientific models concerning the systemic effects of high concentration in greenhouse gases.

There is no debate.

The debate is WHY we aren't changing our sources of energy despite overwhelming researched and vetted scientific understanding.

[FrankSpencer]

Originally Posted by flyingsaucermom

What are your credentials to make the statement? I follow what science and scientists say and they say it's happening now and it's been happening for many years, if not decades.

Look beyond year-to-year changes and you see a trend and the trend is consistent with scientific models concerning the systemic effects of high concentration in greenhouse gases.

There is no debate.

The debate is WHY we aren't changing our sources of energy despite overwhelming researched and vetted scientific understanding.

PhD in CS and worked at a major science lab on climate projects for a decade or so, reviewer on major DOE climate research proposals. I know some very eminent climate scientists

And I don't disagree with you. But citing '90 degree days in london' this summer is not evidence that the climate is going wonky overnight. For example, look at this info from the EPA about decreasing snowpack in the west from 1955 to now. Last winter would sure contribute to these figures, but just because there was no snow last winter doesn't mean we're all doomed to ski rocks in the Cascades from now on. We'll get deluged again soon - very good chance. Just probably not as often, and not as deep ....

so, like Inkpoe said earlier in this thread, the answer to the threads question is:

Typically, it's dry and sunnier. Less snowpack in winter.

La Niña usually is much more wetter. And colder and snowier.

And that's about it

[pnwguy2]

The eastern Pacific has been in a warming trend since the mid-90's. So that is 20 years. El Nino brings more rain to southern CA, but only a 50-50 chance of more rain in northern CA. WA and OR typically get less and have warmer temps. Please don't ask me about my credentials. I just read a lot.

[texdav]

It means a warmer Pacific that brings less rain and hotter temperatures.

[Traxan]

Meteorologists are saying this El Nino will top the one from 1997. I am looking forward to it.