How is Seattle area real estate really doing? (Redmond, Maple Valley: for sale, refinance)

[teaPot]

Hi all, I've been reading the forum posts for a while since my husband got an offer from Microsoft. Current;y we live in an area where a 4 bedroom 2 bath house in a nice suburb sells for around 230K. I've heard that the Seattle market is cooling and I'm wondering when do you folks think the market will bottom out. As of now we may have to sell our current house at a loss, and I'm not wanting to buy high and then lose money again. Thanks.

[irrational exuberance]

Originally Posted by teaPot

Hi all, I've been reading the forum posts for a while since my husband got an offer from Microsoft. Current;y we live in an area where a 4 bedroom 2 bath house in a nice suburb sells for around 230K. I've heard that the Seattle market is cooling and I'm wondering when do you folks think the market will bottom out. As of now we may have to sell our current house at a loss, and I'm not wanting to buy high and then lose money again. Thanks.

I think Seattle will stay put. Granted it is overpriced but Seattle has an bachelors degree education rate of 67% and all kinds of corporations and employment opportunities, so I think prices will decline slightly. However, I think 25 miles from Seattle in any direction will see a big price declines, not as bad as California, Florida, Nevada, or Michigan but prices will decline........Good luck in Seattle its a really nice City.

[CityGirl72]

You won't lose money - but you won't find anything like that around here for less then 500K (probably much more! depending on which suburb, our nice suburbs are on the "Eastside")

The market is cooling - but it's not declining in prices. Even if we do start to decline it will be slowly

Our house cost 300K almost 5 years ago - it's worth about 650K and we are in a pretty crappy area of Seattle City Proper for that price!

[Seattlemom]

The Seattle market has cooled a bit as homes are not selling at huge increases as they were the past couple of years. And hoems aren't selling as quickly as they were in sprinf of last year where they'd be onthe market for less than a week with mutilpe offers. Homes prices haven't started to decline from what I have seen. I hate to be the bearing of bad news - there is no way you are going to find a Livable home near MS within 30 mile radius for under 300K. You may look to Monroe or some other remote communities with something in your range.

[SeattlitefromNC]

What is killing the market in Seattle is the fact that the very high price of homes here means that, in order to get into a home, one oftentimes has to get a jumbo loan.

Welllllll, jumbo loans are an endangered species right now. Even if you have the credit rating, lenders are checking everything with a fine-toothed comb right now ... and if there is a blemish, there are problems.

This is severely limiting the number of buyers that can enter the market. That, in turn, means that houses entering the market are competing for a smaller pool of buyers.

The low-end of housing will remain strong, but the middle and high ends will fall. I don't think we will see a 50% cut anytime soon, but you will see the median price of homes drop at least $100k.

I live in Seattle, and the neighborhood that I live in is littered with "for sale" signs, but there are no buyers. There are still plenty of jobs here, but very few people have access to loans that can get them into a home anymore.

[wsugrad03]

I agree that the lack of jumbo loans and qualified buyers will start anchoring and pulling prices down. We're totally overpriced. I think prices will come down but it's going to take some time for the effects to ripple through the market. The teaser rates in the ARMs will continue expiring and people are either going to have to refinance or sell, which will boost suppy but not demand. I say wait 6 months and see how things are going. Buyers cannot remain stubborn forever and will have to give into the fact that their homes are NOT worth the 50% appreciation they were expecting after 3 years of ownership. www.seattlebubble.com is a good blog on this issue.

My magic 8 ball says...

Best case: Flat for the next 1-3 years.
Worst case: 10-15% decline in the next 1-3 years.

[LoveWA]

If he's working in Redmond look at Maple Valley. It's very nice and very affordable for the Seattle area.

Tons of Microsofties out there. Many carpool too! Great for the environment and it's so nice to not drive a few days a week.

Great place for kids too.

[bmsea]

The government cheese that is expected later this spring or early summer (ie the "stimulous package") will increase the limits for conforming loans up to over $700K. So you won't have to shop for "jumbo" loans.

Many economist speculate this small item in the stimulous package will do more to lift the economy than sending out 150,000,000 $600 checks.