An outsider trying to understand... does Cascadia scare you? (Seattle: construction, earthquake)

[AADAD]

I think one should be more concerned about Ranier than Cascadia.

[VirtualErik]

least an eruption you get some heads up, quake can just happen at any moment. I'm not gonna worry about either, just be prepared though.

[AADAD]

Best plan is to have a plan where all family members if in the immediate area can meet within 30 minutes and meet them with a vehicle dedicated to picking everyone up. That vehicle always has:

1) a full tank of gasoline
2) enough water for each person for one week
3) snacks MRE meals
4) ways to keep warm extra change of clothes
5) basic emergency kit and toiletries.
6) ways to communicate

[cmswazey]

And an electric can opener. Just kidding.

[green_mariner]

Originally Posted by EastBoundandDownChick

I keep watching documentaries about the Cascadia Subduction Zone and it shows that a 9.0-9.2 earthquake is imminent. Does that scare you? Or is it something Seattle knows about and is prepared for?

I lived in the Seattle area as a kid. If I had an opportunity, I would return, CSZ or no CSZ. Here is what is odd. The first time I was ever in an earthquake, was in metro Atlanta.

[carolochs]

EastBoundandDownChick.....

I'm in San Diego, also earthquake turf and we've been through many smaller ones--but ours aren't and never will be SUBDUCTION ZONE events. HUGE difference. Destructive in their own right, but again, still not subduction. I have been plotting a move to western WA for a couple of years now. The imminent/eventual earthquake and tsunami in the PNW have been the ONLY things that give me pause for reconsideration of our move, or at the very least, an entire special plan for survival.

I've read and studied a LOT of books and articles on the subject just because I'm fascinated with it as well as concerned about living there, I was just this morning emailing with a reknown geologist on the subject, who, BTW, referred me to this article: https://huxley.wwu.edu/sites/huxley....sing_low_1.pdf

The one thing that sticks out and worries me most is how non-seriously many (not all, but MANY) WAtonians seem to approach the subject and how behind the times WA govt has been to retrofit or drum up federal funding and seem to take the attitude that they'll deal with aftermath rather than preventative retrofitting. I'm not so afraid of the actual incidences of the earthquake and tsunami, as I am of the aftermath, and how ill-prepared many are. Which will lead to an even longer recovery. It will be a looooong recovery.

Even so......it has not deterred my wanting to move there. So what is wrong with me? LOL! OR ....what is right with me? What's right is, I DO know how to prep and make plans, and always have, already. And not just for that ridiculous suggestion of "three days worth". You're going to need way more than that.

Honestly.....I think you have to first and foremost educate yourself....and not just with headlines. After the big The New Yorker article on Cascadia, a lot of people wrote that off as "alarmist" and "over-exaggerated". Read the articles and books by those who most know and have done the field work and then determine for yourself what's "alarmist" or "over-exaggerated". Do your prepping and then what's the worst that could happen except that you'll be ready or God forbid, OVER-ready.

Here's some books that will assuredly supply you with the science, the history, the field tests, the what-to-do-to-prep, ...not just speculation:

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/15...?ie=UTF8&psc=1

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/15...?ie=UTF8&psc=1

https://www.amazon.com/Next-Tsunami-...88HPFF8GZDHGC1

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/08...?ie=UTF8&psc=1

[bloom]

From your research carolochs & others, where are some of the more likely safer spots in the greater Seattle area, and why??

[Sonnenwende]

I am not really concerned about dying during an event like this, but rather, it will be hell dealing with the aftermath. I mean, cell networks will not work. Roads and bridges will be destroyed. Traffic is godawful on a good day, can you imagine after something like this? My husband and I just assume our car will be useless and will have to walk home. No electricity. Hopefully we come home and the house isn't on fire from broken gas lines or filled with water from broken water pipes. And so on...

[SunAndRain808]

Wow, Seattle an Western Washington area seem to be in a big double-whammy of a trouble situation.

First, you have Mount Rainier that could possibly go off, causing the snow on the mountain top to melt, causing Lahars to gush down into the local rivers, flooding and causing massage damage to Southeastern Pierce County.

Yikes, I guess I might as well move further north to Mills Creek or Mulkiteo later on the near future! Because I live in Puyallup, and it's one of the cities that may get affected by the Lahar flooding.

Next, I did not know much about the Cascadia Subduction quake that is potentially MORE damaging than the San Andreas Fault.

Prior to moving here to western Washington, I only heard about the "Big One" that could affect California and could potentially submerge much of the western-half of California.

But I was watching YouTube videos about Cascadia subduction zone, and the potential for a large magnitude quake scares the bejeezus out of me!

No wonder there were practice drills that went on during June involving FEMA, the national guard and other emergency personnel.

If a large-powerful tsunami were to result from the Cascadia subduction quake, I can imagine the horror - traffic that is - of the I-5 freeway being clogged, as residents are trying to either drive south to Oregon or north to BC. That, or the I-90 east will also be a parking lot. No time to escape a tsunami.

Although to me, I would think that the tsunami would not be able to make its way inland into the Puget Sound area?

[carolochs]

From your research carolochs & others, where are some of the more likely safer spots in the greater Seattle area, and why??


That all depends on *safer from WHAT*? This article includes a lot of maps of the PNW regions expected to be affected, that address each "threat".... severity of shaking, flooding, landslides, liquification, volcanic action, etc... You may be trying to escape one threat, only to run into another. Example: Immediately after a severe earthquake you may head to higher ground thinking you're going to escape being swept away by a tsunami, only to be buried by a landslide on the very higher elevation you're scampering up. You really need to analyze the maps for each potential threat, and pick your poison where you want to live or be. You could choose what you think is the lesser of all evils as far as a place to live, but what guarantee is there that you'll actually BE THERE the day The Big One occurs. You may be vacationing near La Push, or? Or? Or?

https://huxley.wwu.edu/sites/huxley....sing_low_1.pdf


Although to me, I would think that the tsunami would not be able to make its way inland into the Puget Sound area?

In examining the many flood maps for the PNW, many would have you believe that the tsunami threat is primarily for the ocean coastal areas and certain areas at the head of Puget Sound....but I've been personally curious about the chances of a tsunami in the Hood Canal region. Logic might make you think that a tidal wave would have to make so many twists and turns through waterways before it could reach the Hood Canal, or otherwise have to pass OVER Olympic Peninsula forestation, and by then, lose a lot of it's oomph! Right?

There are past and recent studies by University of Washington post-graduate students, one article in peer review right now, that is soon to come out in a high profile science magazine, re: salt marshes near Belfair (southern tip of the Hood Canal) with evidence of tsunamis...both via soil sample evidence as well as land elevation and drop evidence. Sooooo...if tsunamis can reach THAT far, either past-earthquakes were one helluvabig earthquake to cause that large and far-reaching a tsunami, and/or current guestimates of potential future damage from a repeat mega-quake are grossly under-estimated.

I have a few articles I've read recently by geologists at UW and the USGS, and BTW, most of them are more than happy to send you links to their articles, however many of these articles possess a cover page indicating that it is for personal viewing only, or use among UW colleagues, not to be posted publicly without author consent, so I do not feel at liberty obviously, to re-post those here. But if you Google "University of WA" or "USGS" and then whatever topic you're interested in...such as "tsunamis in Puget Sound"...it will lead you to a whole lot of interesting info, often stuff the general public never sees, simply because it never pursues.

When that article "The Really Big One" came out in the The New Yorker in July of last year - The Really Big One - The New Yorker, there were a lot of follow-up editorials deeming it "over-exaggerated". Kathryn Schultz, the author of the article went on to win a Pulitzer for the article.

Personally, I don't care to wait for anyone to tell me what to believe, least of all editorial writers or commenters on others' work. I do the homework, seek out answers, and go to the people who know most - geologists, paleo-seismologists, USGS, etc.....you'd be surprised how willing to give info. these people are, and how little much of it seems to be spotlighted in the press. Is this suppression to calm people? Keep them stupid? I personally had no idea about a LOT of what I now know till I went hunting for info on my own. I suggest anyone else do the same and at least base whatever steps you take on the most current up-to-date info available....draw whatever conclusions you draw based on educating yourself.

You have to remember....it's only been in the last 30-ish years that scientists even began to agree on the existence of subduction zone tectonic plates. Scientists were squabbling back and forth voraciously about this! Evidence discovered in 1986, by Brian Atwater finally led to the agreement on the PNW subduction zone. It's a constantly revealing science........ And no one, NO ONE has a crystal ball on predictions yet...... But the more past evidence they dig-up, the more that is revealed that might influence how and when we can expect future events and prep for them.