When is this housing bubble gonna pop? (Seattle, Tacoma: short sales, apartment)

[flyingsaucermom]

Originally Posted by NorCal77

Thanks for the advice.

I think I'll be on the sidelines for the next 3-5 years with pop corn. After watching so many age through the bidding wars in the bay area I just can't go through the stress right now while trying to put my energy into a new business.

Honestly, I think this is pretty wise. The Trump administration is kicking off in some seriously choppy waters (regardless of his opinion of course) and some industry players are starting to push back. At some point, probably sooner than later, changes in policy are going to affect the economy... Of course I have a biased opinion as to which direction I think things will go but I'm speaking pragmatically as someone who has tens of thousands to invest one way or another and doesn't like to lose. I would personally want a little more sociopolitical confidence before jumping into a real estate market with as intense heat as Seattle's right now. I would revisit the prospect in 6 months or a year.

[NorCal77]

The Trump factor is another unforeseen variable lol.. I better order some more popcorn off Amazon.

[mhays25]

Some real estate will continue due to population growth, but groundbreakings could pause until things are sorted out more. Seattle and really all of Washington is significantly at risk with trump. We're the most trade-dependent state, from aircraft to apples. Amazon and Microsoft are dependent on both trade and being able to employ the best and brightest from the whole world, not just the US. And there's a federal funding aspect of our funding for transportation, research, etc. Immigration is a big boost to our economy on a bunch of levels including construction.

The Seattle area's strengths might continue to keep our heads above water. But we don't know. trump doesn't know either, as they're throwing stuff at a wall and nobody knows what will stick, including trump, who isn't aware of the implications of his own edicts.

[evda]

Seattle is a great City for families, you guys obviously don't even live here. All three of our kids are in public schools, there are tons of kids activities and life is good as long as your commute isn't too far.

[agaace]

Originally Posted by evda

Seattle is a great City for families, you guys obviously don't even live here. All three of our kids are in public schools, there are tons of kids activities and life is good as long as your commute isn't too far.

Would you mind sharing which school district you're in, whether you're happy with the schools, how does the commute downtown look like and whether I could move into that district for less than $500k?

From my experience, Seattle might be great for those lucky people who bought into good school districts several years ago, even as recently as 3 years ago. But not any more. House prices have gone up 70% in the past 5 years and my income has gone up nowhere near as much, so I can no longer afford to buy the house I'm renting. And yes, I do live in Seattle, Greenlake neighborhood. It would cost me $700k to buy it now while the landlord bought it for $360k only 5 years ago. And I can only afford my rent because I locked into a multi-year lease that is about to go up again. My rent nearly doubled over the last 5 years.. At the same time traffic has only gotten worse making commute exponentially worse - not only you now need to move further away to afford a house, any house really, but also commute time has extended, with some stretches of I-5 experiencing a "rush hour" pretty much all day these days, 4-6pm commute times being triple of regular commute times, sometimes experiencing heavy traffic as late as 8pm coming back home from work. This wasn't the case when I first moved in here several years ago.

[Gardyloo]

Originally Posted by agaace

Would you mind sharing which school district you're in, whether you're happy with the schools, how does the commute downtown look like and whether I could move into that district for less than $500k?

From my experience, Seattle might be great for those lucky people who bought into good school districts several years ago, even as recently as 3 years ago. But not any more. House prices have gone up 70% in the past 5 years and my income has gone up nowhere near as much, so I can no longer afford to buy the house I'm renting. And yes, I do live in Seattle, Greenlake neighborhood. It would cost me $700k to buy it now while the landlord bought it for $360k only 5 years ago. And I can only afford my rent because I locked into a multi-year lease that is about to go up again. My rent nearly doubled over the last 5 years.. At the same time traffic has only gotten worse making commute exponentially worse - not only you now need to move further away to afford a house, any house really, but also commute time has extended, with some stretches of I-5 experiencing a "rush hour" pretty much all day these days, 4-6pm commute times being triple of regular commute times, sometimes experiencing heavy traffic as late as 8pm coming back home from work. This wasn't the case when I first moved in here several years ago.

521 NE 95th St, Seattle, WA 98115 | MLS# 1068736 | TheMLSonline.com

Olympic View Elementary - Greatschools 8/10
Eckstein Middle - 10/10
Roosevelt High - 10/10

[bluehorseshoe]

Originally Posted by Gardyloo

521 NE 95th St, Seattle, WA 98115 | MLS# 1068736 | TheMLSonline.com

Olympic View Elementary - Greatschools 8/10
Eckstein Middle - 10/10
Roosevelt High - 10/10

What's sad is these are some of the few "good" public schools in this entire city if your child is not in an APP program. We are in Capitol Hill in one of the least affordable neighborhoods in town and a major reason we are bailing on Seattle is the quality of my son's public schools has been abysmal. I want to save him from high school here while there is still time. Most people in my hood send their kids to spendy private schools but that is not what I want for him even if we can afford it.

With that said real estate prices will continue to go nowhere but up for several more years to come IMO. It's fantasy to think the forces that are driving up prices so far will stop anytime soon. And our new lovely President will only drive more upwardly mobile people here who are fleeing red states. Just my .02.

[Gardyloo]

Originally Posted by bluehorseshoe

What's sad is these are some of the few "good" public schools in this entire city if your child is not in an APP program. We are in Capitol Hill in one of the least affordable neighborhoods in town and a major reason we are bailing on Seattle is the quality of my son's public schools has been abysmal. I want to save him from high school here while there is still time. Most people in my hood send their kids to spendy private schools but that is not what I want for him even if we can afford it.

Your choice of course, but I personally, and all my own family (BIL/SILs etc.) sent their kids to Seattle schools including Garfield, Franklin, Rainier Beach and Nathan Hale, and they all turned out just fine - college grads or still in college, no noticeable scars or gang tats, still haven't seen the inside of a cell. YMMV.

[agaace]

Originally Posted by Gardyloo

521 NE 95th St, Seattle, WA 98115 | MLS# 1068736 | TheMLSonline.com

Olympic View Elementary - Greatschools 8/10
Eckstein Middle - 10/10
Roosevelt High - 10/10

It's a very lovely house but you do realize that despite $465k asking price this will most likely sell for over $500k? Market estimate is $550k.. And this is only 2 beds, so assuming you will only ever have 1 child. We're actually looking at 3 beds because we'd like to have 2 kids..

We'd love to buy something cheaper we could renovate ourselves over time with some sweat and within our budget but these just aren't available at all. House flippers snag them from in front of your nose for cash, only to do a half a** renovation job on them that looks good on listing pictures (my landlord, for example, didn't bother to ground electrical in the main parts of the home, so the home is not even up to code and at fire hazard, but those fancy new sinks in bathrooms sure do look great in pictures!). And then they sell it to you at over $400/sqft.. I don't know how this environment can be called "family friendly".

[OneTimeSEALover]

There's the cloud business. But also what about the FULFILLMENT business? They are dropping fulfillment centers all over the map. These centers may be to the larger retail community what the cloud services are to tech businesses. Could be actual retail is the one business that DOESN'T make money.