When is this housing bubble gonna pop? (Sammamish, Bothell: sales, foreclosed)

[homesinseattle]

I just showed a beautiful $7.5 mil home in Medina (I think he's going to buy it) to a buyer of mine last week. The seller was a 30 year old Chinese couple from Shanghai (who's parents live in Vancouver BC). The parents had bought the 6000 SF brand new home for the young couple so they could be closer to them. They came here, lived in it 3 weeks then decided they missed home and moved back to China.

I showed about 10 homes to this buyer in Hunts Point, Medina and Mercer Island, ranging from $5-10 mil. When I was touring, probably half of the other buyers in this price range we saw (at open houses) were from mainland China. This is real. Interestingly, as I have also helped a few Chinese families, I have noticed that as a group they like new or almost new homes. They don't seem to have any taste for historic or vintage properties. I once heard "why would I succeed in business, come all the way to the US to buy something old?"

[Gardyloo]

Originally Posted by homesinseattle

I have noticed that as a group they like new or almost new homes. They don't seem to have any taste for historic or vintage properties. I once heard "why would I succeed in business, come all the way to the US to buy something old?"

As you know, there are whole neighborhoods in Vancouver where the modest little stucco houses were all demolished and replaced by massive symmetrical boxes (multi-generaltional, feng shui-compliant) in the 1990s and 2000s. It's obviously a cultural thing.

[Seacove]

Originally Posted by jm31828

There wouldn't be a tech bubble pop like we saw back in 2000- that happened because there were a ton of startups who did literally nothing, just had ideas that never came to fruition and people were buying into them. I think most have learned from that and the tech sector growth is based on true productivity and real business- not just smoke and mirrors. Tech is not a fad that would just go away, just like health care, biotech, etc. These individual companies could all fall on hard times due to competition that someday takes away some of their business, but that's the only way I could see a major decline.

I remember that well and I saw coworkers leave good jobs at solid companies to join those small start-ups because they were offered thousands of stock options. Then the bubble burst and several were standing up when the music stopped.

Originally Posted by homesinseattle

Interestingly, as I have also helped a few Chinese families, I have noticed that as a group they like new or almost new homes. They don't seem to have any taste for historic or vintage properties. I once heard "why would I succeed in business, come all the way to the US to buy something old?"

This does seem to be true. Go to a new housing development and look at model homes and they will be filled with Chinese and Indian families walking through (note: this is an observation, not a criticism). They don't seem to choose the 80s built homes found in some of the older established neighborhoods, which is interesting because those older neighborhoods have the larger yards and wider streets. The new neighborhoods all seem so scrunched in because the land is so valuable now.

[noah]

Parts of this country can be that way too. In Atlanta all the northeasterners moving down there seem to prefer new houses too, maybe in part because they can't find or afford new in the northeast and even though that means they are way out they are already used to long commutes. Texas too, new is much more desirable than pre-owned by many.

Originally Posted by Seacove

This does seem to be true. Go to a new housing development and look at model homes and they will be filled with Chinese and Indian families walking through (note: this is an observation, not a criticism). They don't seem to choose the 80s built homes found in some of the older established neighborhoods, which is interesting because those older neighborhoods have the larger yards and wider streets. The new neighborhoods all seem so scrunched in because the land is so valuable now.

[Seacove]

Originally Posted by noah

Parts of this country can be that way too. In Atlanta all the northeasterners moving down there seem to prefer new houses too, maybe in part because they can't find or afford new in the northeast and even though that means they are way out they are already used to long commutes. Texas too, new is much more desirable than pre-owned by many.

Yet the nicest areas of Atlanta are around Buckhead and those older stately homes, far preferable IMO than a new housing development.

[hellopity]

Originally Posted by homesinseattle

I showed about 10 homes to this buyer in Hunts Point, Medina and Mercer Island, ranging from $5-10 mil. When I was touring, probably half of the other buyers in this price range we saw (at open houses) were from mainland China. This is real. Interestingly, as I have also helped a few Chinese families, I have noticed that as a group they like new or almost new homes. They don't seem to have any taste for historic or vintage properties. I once heard "why would I succeed in business, come all the way to the US to buy something old?"

Many Chinese buyers like new/newer construction. It's a cultural thing. Better learn mandarin fast!

[noah]

100%, but the general attitudes amongst the masses lean much more in favor of new construction and old (even 80's or 90's) is talked down by many, especially once you get out of the city.

Originally Posted by Seacove

Yet the nicest areas of Atlanta are around Buckhead and those older stately homes, far preferable IMO than a new housing development.

[CrazyDonkey]

Originally Posted by Gardyloo

As you know, there are whole neighborhoods in Vancouver where the modest little stucco houses were all demolished and replaced by massive symmetrical boxes (multi-generaltional, feng shui-compliant) in the 1990s and 2000s. It's obviously a cultural thing.

In China, only peasants and factory workers willingly live in old, usually decrepit, houses. China's major cities are undergoing massive "urban renewal", with scores and scores of tenants evicted without appeal or review, huge swaths of older "traditional" housing being bulldozed, and replaced by brand-new gleaming and shining towers.

[Ultrarunner]

My brother sells residential for 30 years... many simply do not want a home that is "Used"

Totally different when it comes to commercial property.

A lot is cultural and can run deep.

[CrazyDonkey]

The nouveau riche, in that they have neither long history or high culture, often want something brand spanking new, and all the better if vulgar and ostentatious, to conspicuously display their new found consumption. Think Trump's gold-coated toilet seats - it is not generally known, but the Trump family's wealth got its start in Seattle.

"Old money", on the other hand, is more likely to want something classic and stylishly understated, if still comfortably commodious and amply luxurious, but avoiding garish display.