Your housing woes are over!! (Seattle, Tacoma: renters, condos, loan)

[homelessinseattle]

Ataboy matey, keep your chin up.

[tickyul]

So tight, limited inventory and space in the Seattle area. A minor blip of a correction, then back to the
new-normal.

[Flightoficarus87]

I'd wait a little longer before popping the corks off of the champagne bottles...

This might be a sign of rental supply inching closer to market equilibrium, but it's too soon to say for sure.

The fact remains that the real estate market to own remains absolutely brutal for buyers. Lots of new apartments being built, but not nearly enough new condos/townhomes/SFH's being added to address demand. This alone should keep rental demand strong, even if the pace of hiring at companies like Amazon were to slow down/the upcoming HQ2 announcement does indeed confirm that it will be in another metro area outside of the PNW.

It's also worth keeping in mind that as expensive as Seattle has become, it's still a big COL discount for Bay Area techies to move up here (though perhaps not as much as it once was).

[mhays25]

Seemingly everyone in the apartment business has been predicting a rent drop due to all this supply...it was only a question of when supply would grow faster than demand. This is the market working as usual.

Thatguy, I categorically disagree with much of your post. Although we have three private-sector employment giants, Seattle today has very little in common with its Boeing bust days -- no single employer is even a large fraction of Boeing's one-time percentage of our labor market. A non-bust economy is the norm for most cities, not an aberration...the busts were an aberration from the days of dominance by one employer who had huge ups and downs.

As for lacking "intrinsic draw," that's also not supported. The Seattle area has grown for about 46 straight years, and the in-city population for 31 years. Much of that is some combination of lifestyle, climate, job market, housing prices, connectivity, culture, and so on. We also get a lot of shorter-term influx who come and go, but so do New York, San Francisco, and Portland...that can actually be a sign of a top city and its intrinsic draw.

Regarding apartment investors, it sounds like some people here don't pay attention to other cities. San Francisco and New York had reports of falling rents in 2016. If investment goes there instead of here, it's because their values have fallen a little while ours have lately been as high as ever.

In our case it's helpful for a lot of renters, and we'll see fewer groundbreakings, which will rebalance supply and demand, which will get construction going again...Seattle always grows, people need to live somewhere, and urban apartment districts are popular, with net positive absorption that's essentially constant as shown even in the report being quoted here.

[LesLucid]

And for something completely different, just truck it in.

https://www.tenfoldengineering.com/#...n-applications

[soldierhobo]

Originally Posted by mhays25

Seemingly everyone in the apartment business has been predicting a rent drop due to all this supply...it was only a question of when supply would grow faster than demand. This is the market working as usual.

Thatguy, I categorically disagree with much of your post. Although we have three private-sector employment giants, Seattle today has very little in common with its Boeing bust days -- no single employer is even a large fraction of Boeing's one-time percentage of our labor market. A non-bust economy is the norm for most cities, not an aberration...the busts were an aberration from the days of dominance by one employer who had huge ups and downs.

As for lacking "intrinsic draw," that's also not supported. The Seattle area has grown for about 46 straight years, and the in-city population for 31 years. Much of that is some combination of lifestyle, climate, job market, housing prices, connectivity, culture, and so on. We also get a lot of shorter-term influx who come and go, but so do New York, San Francisco, and Portland...that can actually be a sign of a top city and its intrinsic draw.

Regarding apartment investors, it sounds like some people here don't pay attention to other cities. San Francisco and New York had reports of falling rents in 2016. If investment goes there instead of here, it's because their values have fallen a little while ours have lately been as high as ever.

In our case it's helpful for a lot of renters, and we'll see fewer groundbreakings, which will rebalance supply and demand, which will get construction going again...Seattle always grows, people need to live somewhere, and urban apartment districts are popular, with net positive absorption that's essentially constant as shown even in the report being quoted here.

That is the weirdest thing, Seattle doesn't rival New York or San Francisco... the "lifestyle" sucks. You can't bike or take the subway to work, your central core is a ghost town at 7 pm, and the food is meh.

The belief that for some reason people will start stacking up in condos or rowhouses like a legitimate urban area is false. The rental glut shows, people with money ain't flocking here. It's critical capacity. Even without some crazy outside influence HQ2, H1E restrictions.....etc.

Also, man there is a lot of empty space. Almost seems engineered that they don't build housing developments in Des Moines, SeaTac, or Burien. At 750+ a pop, I can't figure out why no one wants to give a run at that.


You know... Steins law says what comes up must come down. A bubble doesn't exist without a lot of rationalization and delusion. Someday, there will be a downturn. My bet is it will be a slaughter, as an outside observer. It is easy to see the irrationality and fundamental flaws here.

[soldierhobo]

Originally Posted by tickyul

So tight, limited inventory and space in the Seattle area. A minor blip of a correction, then back to the
new-normal.

Case-schiller down 0.7 in December. Seems like Tacoma-Covington on sale this month...

[CityWok]

Originally Posted by soldierhobo

Steins law says what comes up must come down.

That's Newton's law. Which pertains gravity.

Stein's law says: "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop." which is a bit different. Things in economics can have the potential to keep going up. Take for example the Bay Area market where people kept saying "Ah, it's gotta come down now!"

[mhays25]

Originally Posted by soldierhobo

That is the weirdest thing, Seattle doesn't rival New York or San Francisco... the "lifestyle" sucks. You can't bike or take the subway to work, your central core is a ghost town at 7 pm, and the food is meh.

The belief that for some reason people will start stacking up in condos or rowhouses like a legitimate urban area is false. The rental glut shows, people with money ain't flocking here. It's critical capacity. Even without some crazy outside influence HQ2, H1E restrictions.....etc.

Also, man there is a lot of empty space. Almost seems engineered that they don't build housing developments in Des Moines, SeaTac, or Burien. At 750+ a pop, I can't figure out why no one wants to give a run at that.


You know... Steins law says what comes up must come down. A bubble doesn't exist without a lot of rationalization and delusion. Someday, there will be a downturn. My bet is it will be a slaughter, as an outside observer. It is easy to see the irrationality and fundamental flaws here.

Yet we're growing at a huge pace.

And we're stacking up density, and those units are filling up at a furious pace. They've filled a bit slower lately, but they're still filling.

And the city's urban-type lifestyles get better every year. Amazing what happens when thousands of units are filled each year within walking distance of the Downtown core.

What evidence do you have of a bubble? So far it's high demand and low supply. Rising prices isn't a bubble on its own.

[Neerwhal]

Originally Posted by soldierhobo

That is the weirdest thing, Seattle doesn't rival New York or San Francisco... the "lifestyle" sucks. You can't bike or take the subway to work, your central core is a ghost town at 7 pm, and the food is meh.

The belief that for some reason people will start stacking up in condos or rowhouses like a legitimate urban area is false. The rental glut shows, people with money ain't flocking here. It's critical capacity. Even without some crazy outside influence HQ2, H1E restrictions.....etc.

Also, man there is a lot of empty space. Almost seems engineered that they don't build housing developments in Des Moines, SeaTac, or Burien. At 750+ a pop, I can't figure out why no one wants to give a run at that.


You know... Steins law says what comes up must come down. A bubble doesn't exist without a lot of rationalization and delusion. Someday, there will be a downturn. My bet is it will be a slaughter, as an outside observer. It is easy to see the irrationality and fundamental flaws here.

Lots of people I know bike to work...

The central core is not where the culture is. Is the rule that "a city cannot grow unless the central core is the cultural center"? What does that rule do?

I can see why Seattle is not going to be a good fit for everyone, but I don't understand why you'd think that only some cities can grow.

As for the food, lol.

Here's an article about what it takes to make a "food scene":

What Defines a Great Food City? | Food & Wine

The preliminary list was as follows:

"1. Markets that make great ingredients accessible.
2. Artisan stores dedicated to singular perfection: bread, espresso, chocolate, ice cream.
3. An exciting wine scene and interesting sommeliers.
4. Sophisticated cocktail programs and bar chefs.
5. A new generation of young chefs with fresh ideas.
6. Destination restaurants.
7. Maverick chefs."

Not, you know, actually really damn good food. So screw that noise. Let Seattle never be a food scene if it means prioritizing characteristics like "young", "maverick", "exciting", and "sophisticated program" over actually good food. The article gets into why the list is stupid, but I think when people say Seattle doesn't have a food scene, what they mean is, they don't know what they are supposed to talk about because people are prioritizing food over form, taste over marketing.

The thing is, there are plenty of people who are more than happy to enjoy life without fanfare, so I think you're wrong about the potential for growth. But thank goodness there may be an end to people coming for a "scene".