Is the housing market slowing down (Seattle, Tukwila: sales, condo, homes)

[StealthRabbit]

Tad bit of sanity is a good thing for the RE market.

$1.5m home = need for $15k / month gross rents on that level of property

If you are not paying that much, or if you cannot GET that much for your property... you are at risk (if you lose your income)/ or you overpaid (very likely).

RE: correction in Seattle? = inevitable - will NOT be pretty, but... a lot of people in Seattle have a lot of money, so... only the worker bees will be destroyed (those with nose-to-the- grindstone making payments).

The homeless population will further explode.

The financial crisis of 2008 had similar effect. Many property owners who had never missed a payment and had great jobs had their loans "Called Due".

"Cough up a million bucks by Friday or we are taking your property back"..

The banks (who got us into the mess...) made out like VERY fat cats! Worker bees (usually RE investors) became homeless / broke.

[wahoyaho]

Originally Posted by StealthRabbit

Tad bit of sanity is a good thing for the RE market.

$1.5m home = need for $15k / month gross rents on that level of property

If you are not paying that much, or if you cannot GET that much for your property... you are at risk (if you lose your income)/ or you overpaid (very likely).

RE: correction in Seattle? = inevitable - will NOT be pretty, but... a lot of people in Seattle have a lot of money, so... only the worker bees will be destroyed (those with nose-to-the- grindstone making payments).

The homeless population will further explode.

The financial crisis of 2008 had similar effect. Many property owners who had never missed a payment and had great jobs had their loans "Called Due".

"Cough up a million bucks by Friday or we are taking your property back"..

The banks (who got us into the mess...) made out like VERY fat cats! Worker bees (usually RE investors) became homeless / broke.

where is the 15k/mo number coming from. that doesn't seem right to me.

[Commonproject]

Originally Posted by StealthRabbit

Tad bit of sanity is a good thing for the RE market.

$1.5m home = need for $15k / month gross rents on that level of property

If you are not paying that much, or if you cannot GET that much for your property... you are at risk (if you lose your income)/ or you overpaid (very likely).

RE: correction in Seattle? = inevitable - will NOT be pretty, but... a lot of people in Seattle have a lot of money, so... only the worker bees will be destroyed (those with nose-to-the- grindstone making payments).

The homeless population will further explode.

The financial crisis of 2008 had similar effect. Many property owners who had never missed a payment and had great jobs had their loans "Called Due".

"Cough up a million bucks by Friday or we are taking your property back"..

The banks (who got us into the mess...) made out like VERY fat cats! Worker bees (usually RE investors) became homeless / broke.

Your math is a little off buddy

[BaustinTejas]

It's really the drop in foreign investment. Anyone on the ground knows this. A LOT of real estate agents were exclusively listing to Asian markets, they are failing big time now.


CNBC just published this.


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/02/seat...-dries-up.html

[CrazyDonkey]

The Chinese and Amazon:

The e-commerce giant, however, did report its first decline in its number of employees since 2009.

After strong hiring throughout the first half of 2017, job postings for open positions at Amazon headquarters dropped sharply last December, according to a report from The Seattle Times. Amazon is also planning to open a second headquarters, commonly called HQ2, although it has yet to announce the location. It currently employs more than 40,000 workers at its Seattle headquarters, according to quarterly filings.

[Flightoficarus87]

Originally Posted by BaustinTejas

It's really the drop in foreign investment. Anyone on the ground knows this. A LOT of real estate agents were exclusively listing to Asian markets, they are failing big time now.


CNBC just published this.


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/02/seat...-dries-up.html

Was just checking out that article this morning.

Very interesting that they mention the decreasing value of the yuan as a factor - I was largely under the impression that most of the buyers from China were targeting SFH's on the Eastside, and luxury condos in DT Seattle. Now I wonder if reduced buying power w/the yuan will simply mean that Chinese buyers will target slightly more affordable SFH's in Seattle and the immediate suburbs? (i.e - competing more with local middle/upper middle class class buyers instead of highly affluent buyers that would be looking around the Eastside and DT?). It would also be interesting to know just how much influence foreign buyers have on the market, in terms of prices were seeing/the overall percentage of buyers.

CrazyDonkey - Amazon is taking awhile to announce the HQ2 location. With the drop in job postings there, it has me wondering if they're planning to post those jobs at the new HQ2 instead, and/or send some of the Seattle jobs there.

[Canamlian]

Bigger homes have slowed down (to just merely hot levels instead of absolutely insane).

Doesnt seem like smaller houses listed under 1.2 or so have slowed down that much. Two ~1500 sq ft cottages in my neighborhood were listed around 800k and didn’t make it past the review date. One just closed for a touch over 1M and I’m guessing the other one went for at least 900k. Small lots that aren’t subdividable.

[pnwguy2]

Yes, some slowing, but still a strong real estate market overall from all indicators.

Overpriced? Perhaps with some properties, but this will quickly balance out.

[CrazyDonkey]

CNBC: Currency controls impact Chinese buyers' interest in Seattle housing

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/08/0...e-housing.html

[wushuliu]

Originally Posted by BaustinTejas

It's really the drop in foreign investment. Anyone on the ground knows this. A LOT of real estate agents were exclusively listing to Asian markets, they are failing big time now.


CNBC just published this.


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/02/seat...-dries-up.html

Bingo. I have been telling friends since the beginning of the year that because of the China/Russia fiasco, foreign investment in real estate would drop by mid-year and with it, housing prices. This will ripple nationwide in major metros that have been riding high on all that foreign money. Some media report on it, but like to keep in the background as potentially 'one of several factors'. It is *the* factor. Now watch as all the new construction just sits there with no takers until the prices drop, and minor panic sets in as existing homes get put on the market in a rush to still get premium offers before the bottom falls out. It won't be 2008/2012, but it will be a major correction, cause Russia and China money ain't coming back for the fore-seeable future.