As Microsoft is showing, workers may never come back to the office (Seattle: real estate market, rental)

[usernametaken]

As Microsoft is showing, workers may never come back to the office.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...to-the-office/

[87112]

What does this mean for Sound Transit? Article says only 38# of office space is used Downtown. ST was built thinking DT was an ultimate destination. Now it's not except for tourists. It's never even half full all the time on commute hours.

[urbancuriosity]

Interesting questions. If downtown isn't drawing the work crowds, supporting businesses such as restaurants will feel the impact for sure. A few years ago when I was on a business trip, I remember seeing the price of a Subway sandwich there was like 40% more than what I paid back at home. I was on expenses at the time and didn't care but it's not sustainable without work traffic.

[pnwguy2]

There is no doubt the covid episode has changed the way employers do business. I think many will continue to work from home post covid. On the flip side, working at an office has advantages for employers as well. Having everyone on the same page is essential to doing business. The real communication happens face to face, always has been. I don’t believe we are at the point where most work from home. Smart companies understand this concept.

[Blondebaerde]

Watching the elastic reaction to our collective societal response to the 'Vid is interesting. I believe the commercial real estate market is a "lagging indicator." Why need office space anymore for certain tech professions, speaking of Microsoft?

First comes forced (due to lockdowns) distribution of talent nationally and internationally. That was early '20. Next lagging effect may be property values both commercial and private. If I can live in Kansas City vs. Seattle, former having a drastically lower cost of living, well: why don't I? I currently live in a place valued for "location location location" which certainly made sense late 1990s - 2010s. The schools are still great near me, and I suspect kids still need the socialization aspect of school. Lockdown effects to the education system are another social experiment occurring in slow-motion. But if all can be transferred whole cloth to Kansas City, including the schools...hmm!

I'm about to close on a job with HQ based in a large Midwest city. I'm informed until a few years ago they were about "Be here in (City) because well...that's where (we) are!" Usually changing those attitudes takes decade(s). Or... a violent social upheaval like the 'Vid. We're smart monkeys, so: "hey, let's improvise!" I think they're still adjusting along with the rest of professional services. In adjusting, there is opportunity. Build windmills not windbreaks as a certain old saying goes RE "the winds of change are a'blowin'!" The work I do is literally about distributing risk and IT systems to Cloud-based parties like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon.

Mine is a professional role that can demonstrably be completed remotely. My last client's general manager is based out of a big East Coast city. The company HQ is in Bothell. I have no idea why they're bothering reopening buildings in Bothell's business park. To me that's a waste of RE&F dollars. I suspect they'll reach the same conclusion sooner or later. As will everyone else. I give it three years max and society starts to change again...

[MechAndy]

I know several work from home employees that are working from vacation destinations.
My wife is one of them.

We were based out of the San Francisco Area before work from home and now we can live about anywhere we want or can afford.

Lots of people that once worked in the main tech hubs are now in rural areas.
My wife now has coworkers that are from the mid west fly over Bible Belt States.
They make a bit more than their local wage but not City wages.

Seeing this makes me believe that work from home will continue and will ultimately reduce wages via supply and demand.
There are now many more employees available for employers to hire.

[usernametaken]

https://www.geekwire.com/2022/real-e...ze-in-seattle/

Offices in Seattle will remain partly empty until 2024. At least, that’s what commercial real estate company Broderick Group predicts in a market report for the second quarter of 2022, saying that economic pressures and the work-from-home movement will keep vacancy rates high in commercial spaces in the region throughout 2022 and 2023.

[JackieLovesSun]

Originally Posted by MechAndy

Seeing this makes me believe that work from home will continue and will ultimately reduce wages via supply and demand.
There are now many more employees available for employers to hire.

I hope you are wrong about wages. I'm afraid housing prices will go up in areas that had been reasonable, as work from home people can move anywhere with internet.

[Bluefox]

Originally Posted by JackieLovesSun

I hope you are wrong about wages. I'm afraid housing prices will go up in areas that had been reasonable, as work from home people can move anywhere with internet.

I think the answer is yes and no on wages.

A Seattle based company may save a buck by offering a lower wage to a remote worker in Omaha for example, by paying more than an average tech worker in Omaha but perhaps less than they’d pay a Seattle based employee. On a macro level that might drive up the overall cost of living in Omaha if enough remote workers choose to move there with their high paying remote gigs. But it also might force local employers in Omaha to up their wages to remain competitive, especially if the worker shortages continue.

[MechAndy]

We own some properties in nice rural to semi rural areas just a bit outside Seattle and San Francisco.
These properties have really boomed in value due to the wfh workers.
I don’t think that city house prices are going down, maybe the rental rates are but I’m just gandering.

Several of my San Francisco friends are permanently living on the OP while collecting paychecks from The City.
A good portion of my neighbors are not full time residents.
I am just one guy seeing this so there should be thousands upon thousands throughout the country I’d wager.


I too hope the wages don’t take a dive.
I’m totally pro labor.
I just see it partially as a supply and demand situation that will have an effect on labor pricing and costs.
I also think people will settle for less in wages if their costs are down and their quality of life is up.