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The only point at issue in this particular tangent is whether a 730,000 bpd oil field is "tiny" or not.
It's kind of a "duh" that the environmental impact is significant (being a major oil field and all) as well as the fact that oil won't last into perpetuity and we need to be seriously developing alternative sources.
that was FIVE years old and not even relevant to the topic at hand.
The Bakken was just a sleepy little oil patch just like it had been since its discovery in the 50s. It wouldn't really take off for another year or two AFTER that was written.
More importantly, it's CURRENTLY producing at 730,000 bpd. And, it is one of the most important oil fields in the US at the moment.
That is "major," no matter how you slice it.
According to official data cited by North Dakota's Department of Mineral Resources and the Energy Information Agency, Bakken crude production surged from 274,000 barrels per day in January 2011 to 673,000 in January 2013.
Which is misleading, because production had already peaked at ~700kbpd earlier in 2012, so the 673k "surge" was actually a decline.
Private estimates may offer higher numbers, but remember that those private estimates are used to attract investors and so must be considered questionable, as I noted earlier. And that 673k bpd is a bare 4k bpd above October 2012.
Production declined 2.2 percent from October to 669,000 barrels a day, according to the North Dakota Industrial Commission. It was the first month-to-month drop since April 2011. The decline closely followed a decline in rig counts in the state, from 210 on Oct. 19 to 181 on Nov. 30, according to data compiled by Smith Bits, a drilling products and services provider owned by Houston- and Paris-based Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB)
Bakken wells tend to have steep decline rates because they’re created with directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing, James Williams, president of WTRG Economics in London, Arkansas, said by telephone.
“The question is, are you drilling enough new wells to make up for the decline?” he said. “With a little decline in the rig count, and the very fast depletion rate of the wells, it’s not terribly surprising that the Bakken production leveled off.”
If drillers can bring in more drill rigs and punch more wells, Bakken might get up to 800k. At this point, though, 1 million bpd is sheer fantasy.
The only thing I was disputing was this notion that it's a "tiny" field.
It's NOT. 600,000 bpd, 730,000 bpd, a million...
ANY of those would be considered a major oil field.
Go spend a day or two in Williston and tell me it's not "major." lol
BTW rig count really has nothing to do with output, particularly in a field that is nearing production level. Up til now, the Bakken has been "developing." And, while the drilling should be declining, development (ie, fracking) of those wells will be ongoing for several years to come.
Last edited by itsMeFred; 04-15-2013 at 08:54 AM..
PS: From your article, "Bakken Oil Field May Be Much Bigger"--
Quote:
One of those is [the] Bakken, an oil hub that some believe could challenge the Gulf Coast's prodigious crude output. {snip}
[the] Bakken, a region stretching through swaths of North Dakota and Montana, has transformed itself into a major site of US crude production.The formation is now seen as the future of oil drilling in the U.S., and is an epicenter of pipeline expansion projects designed to capitalize on production. {snip}
[the] Bakken is now one of the largest sources of crude production in the US, and is teeming with international investment capital.
"hub," "major," "epicenter"...
Much like "impressive" and "formidable," those aren't usually terms used to describe something tiny.
Even YOUR sources agree with me. lol
Also, just because you expressed confusion about this a few pages back, ND/MT did have a normal winter again this year. Ie, much colder than last year's unseasonably pleasant winter. And if you think things don't slow down a bit in a 60-below windchill, you've obviously never seen metal get so cold and brittle that it just snaps.
A good thing for the guys hauling frack sand who have to sit on a well for days on end while the crew gets things fixed (not to mention their wives who do the family books!), but not so good for production.
Last edited by itsMeFred; 04-15-2013 at 09:49 AM..
The only thing I was disputing was this notion that it's a "tiny" field.
It's NOT. 600,000 bpd, 730,000 bpd, a million...
ANY of those would be considered a major oil field.
Go spend a day or two in Williston and tell me it's not "major." lol
BTW rig count really has nothing to do with output, particularly in a field that is nearing production level. Up til now, the Bakken has been "developing." And, while the drilling should be declining, development (ie, fracking) of those wells will be ongoing for several years to come.
Sigh. Fred, you're doing it again. You're responding to a criticism I never made, when you find yourself unable to counter the arguments I actually make. Setting up strawmen just so you can knock them down may be entertaining, but it isn't very enlightening. Go find Mercea and argue with him on that point.
And BTW, in a tight oil field, rig count has everything to do with output. As I've cited repeatedly, oil shale wells give up ~40 percent or more of their total output in the first year and then tail off rapidly over the next four-five years to stripper well status. Drillers have to constantly set new wells to keep production up. That's the major reason Bakken production dropped last year -- the number of active drill rigs declined by about 15 percent.
Also, just because you expressed confusion about this a few pages back, ND/MT did have a normal winter again this year. Ie, much colder than last year's unseasonably pleasant winter. And if you think things don't slow down a bit in a 60-below windchill, you've obviously never seen metal get so cold and brittle that it just snaps.
A good thing for the guys hauling frack sand who have to sit on a well for days on end while the crew gets things fixed (not to mention their wives who do the family books!), but not so good for production.
Fred, read my response to Prairieparson again. The drill rig count declined during the summer and early fall, not during the winter. Again, setting up strawmen arguments doesn't win you any points. I'm not at all confused about a Midwest winter. I've seen too many of them up close and personal.
How does any of that support your notion that the Bakken isn't a major oil field?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coaster
If you read a page or two back on the thread, you'll see a very cogent argument about why the Bakken does not come close to qualifying as a "major new source."
Like I said, even YOUR article says you're full of baloney...
How does any of that support your notion that the Bakken isn't a major oil field?
Like I said, even YOUR article says you're full of baloney...
Fred, it's not my "notion," it's Mircea's, and he certainly brings more expertise to the discussion than you do. Again, you're making a strawman argument. For some reason you have a wild hair about it. I don't much care what words you use to describe the Bakken. The fact remains that unless they bring in more drill rigs, production there has gone into decline.
Unless you can bring some new information to the discussion and get off your obsession with how to describe Bakken, there's not much sense in continuing the conversation.
Ah.
In other words you've figured out you mis-spoke
No problem
Again, that same tactic of attributing and criticizing "facts" that have not been stated when you can offer nothing of substance.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coaster
Unless you can bring some new information to the discussion and get off your obsession with how to describe Bakken, there's not much sense in continuing the conversation.
The only person who has misspoken here is you, repeatedly. Thanks for playing.
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