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Location: When you take flak it means you are on target
7,646 posts, read 9,944,809 times
Reputation: 16466
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustMike77
I couldn't (wouldn't) get to the Colorado River, but I could make it to my boat on my dirtbike assuming roads are clogged. My boat has a RO watermaker, so I could sit off the coast, fish, watch DVDs and wait for things to settle down or sail to Hawaii or beyond.
Unless of course we go to back up plan #26. Head to the coast, pick out a nice fancy boat, and shoot whoever is on board the enjoy their watermaker and food.
Location: When you take flak it means you are on target
7,646 posts, read 9,944,809 times
Reputation: 16466
Quote:
Originally Posted by monkeywrenching
just so you know, if you live on the colorado, then you have to figure out is the river will even be flowing to where you are in a shtf situation. I figure if a shtf ever happens, then the colorado might not be flowing very far down stream. it does not take very much to stop the flow of water.
No we figured that out. We live below Lake Mohave, it is kept full and will take at least ten years to evaporate, less if we make local power. If they shut the spigot at Glen Canyon and Boulder dams they will overtop in 4-6 years depending on rainfall. Then they will be forced to open. Just the spillways at Lake Mead, will force our dam wide open to avoid overtopping - this happened in 1984, last time everything was full.
Plus if they want power they will have to release at least one unit of water, so the river will flow. The big problem is sewage from Vegas. Also when we shut the spigots to LA and Phoenix at Parker Dam (Havasu) a lot of people are going to get thirsty.
Not to mention Mexico could well invade over water rights. This is the largest public infrastructure in the country outside of the Mississippi river. If our four dams on the Colorado shut down the grid pretty much fails, at least in the west, and millions don't drink.
Trail? Waylay? What is this 1900?
There are well over 14 million people in that regional area. If only 10% decide to head east towards the CR that's over 1,000,000 people walking along an INTERSTATE. Or more simply put, if each person was walking 1 yard behind the next person, when the first person reached the river, people will still be in line at the Staples Center waiting their turn to depart.
Basically, while condescendingly referring to my choice of words it doesn't seem like you put any actual thought into the idea that a lone, well prepared individual wouldn't become a target for the masses.
Concepts like grid-locked roads and taking to the back-country were already addressed but even then a lone prepared person is a target.
In short, I think that fleeing a major metro area is nearly suicidal. Hunkering down and shooting looters might make more sense.
No we figured that out. We live below Lake Mohave, it is kept full and will take at least ten years to evaporate, less if we make local power. If they shut the spigot at Glen Canyon and Boulder dams they will overtop in 4-6 years depending on rainfall. Then they will be forced to open. Just the spillways at Lake Mead, will force our dam wide open to avoid overtopping - this happened in 1984, last time everything was full.
Plus if they want power they will have to release at least one unit of water, so the river will flow. The big problem is sewage from Vegas. Also when we shut the spigots to LA and Phoenix at Parker Dam (Havasu) a lot of people are going to get thirsty.
Not to mention Mexico could well invade over water rights. This is the largest public infrastructure in the country outside of the Mississippi river. If our four dams on the Colorado shut down the grid pretty much fails, at least in the west, and millions don't drink.
What a mess.
Lake Mohave is a reservoir which has three distinct purposes. One is to provide a large capacity retention area for California to pump water for their needs. The second is as a federal/state recreational area for water activities (aka tourist dollars to local area). The last is to help regulate water flows required for down river purposes. In a SHTF scenario as you describe, where government is no longer functioning, do you really think anyone will care about anything down river from where they are? I seriously doubt anyone will give two sheets about the need to keep that lake filled for jet skiers and fishermen and CA hungry pump stations.
The only reason Lake Mohave exist is because the US government makes it exist to conform to the water treaties between all six states and Mexico. Take away the government and who's going to ensure that water keeps flowing at the rate needed to serve the next group?. Look at all that land along the river that isn't being used because the treaties don't allow for any diversion of water to those areas. Additionally, many areas can't be as productive as they would like because their allocation of water is restricted. Remove someone serving as the orchestra conductor (and kid you not that is how delicate a balance controlling the allocations along the CR) and what you will have is those up river taking all they can and those down river looking out over a dry river bed.
Location: When you take flak it means you are on target
7,646 posts, read 9,944,809 times
Reputation: 16466
^^^ Yes, exactly, but at some point upstream they will be forced to open the gates. As I said, either to generate electricity or to reduce overtopping. Mead and Page will eventually fill up. We figure about six years at present levels if no water passed downstream. The lower lakes will last that long if they don't make power.
Another problem is the equpiment requires maintenance. If the turbines aren't kept up they will not work - if the managers are dead or gone it could be a big problem. I don't know how to work a dam. Also, the gates require electricity to move, I assume. No power, everything could be stuck partly open. That could bo good or bad.
Water is still a big problem to make the desert feasible. We have wells, but need electricity to get the water.
^^^ Yes, exactly, but at some point upstream they will be forced to open the gates. As I said, either to generate electricity or to reduce overtopping. Mead and Page will eventually fill up. We figure about six years at present levels if no water passed downstream. The lower lakes will last that long if they don't make power.
Another problem is the equpiment requires maintenance. If the turbines aren't kept up they will not work - if the managers are dead or gone it could be a big problem. I don't know how to work a dam. Also, the gates require electricity to move, I assume. No power, everything could be stuck partly open. That could bo good or bad.
Water is still a big problem to make the desert feasible. We have wells, but need electricity to get the water.
They will have to open the gates only if they have too much water. However, what is ensuring that water travels down river is the US government that prohibits anyone from drawing from the river for their needs. In a SHTF scenario without the US Government, nothing will stop the water from being drawn for use up river. Millions of acres of land borders the river yet it can not be irrigated, hundreds of cities along the CR can't even draw water for drinking because they are not part of the allocation, thousands of irrigation canals that can handle billions of gallons are dry because their share is minimal. Right now, almost every ounce of water in the CR can be siphoned for use by Lake Mead leaving nothing to flow down river. It is only the US government's intervention that ensures water reaches all those who have rights to it. Take away anyone enforcing the law and everyone will be grabbing what they need leaving less and less for those down river until the Hoover Dam may not be able to even draw for the generators.
Remember, Vegas has already extended their intake pipes below the level of the dams generator intakes. Even when the lake reaches a level where the generators (hence Lake Mohave) is cut off, Vegas still has 125' of draw remaining. Not to mention they will close off the treated water canal and start diverting sewer to the old lower diversion channel (currently closed for use) meaning all their untreated sewer will now freely flow direct into the CR and thus into Lake Mohave.
And let's not forget the 50,000 lb elephant in this china shop. Davis dam is the US's most vulnerable dam. That is why they had to shut dam access down. The ability for any yahoo with a bag of fertilizer to cause a breech is so high, they had to prevent any vehicles from coming near the damn. As for operations, Davis has a manual gate system similar to Hoover and Glen Canyon. Gravity can be used to close them and block and tackle can open them. Unfortunately, unlike Hoover and Glen Canyon, Davis can be damaged int eh open position preventing their closure. In theory, if the gates are opened in an uncontrolled flow, the lake will empty in about 3 months with only a small river flowing the length of the CR. Additionally, CA pump stations can draw at a lower level meaning they can suck anything coming down river before it hits the dam.
It's not a pretty picture but it's also not dire. So long as a person understands what can happen in a SHTF scenario, they can start making plans to deal with the potential issues. Way too many so called preppers talk about what they have but never take the time to face the reality of what will it be like when you don;t have others keeping them safe? There are over a million contained hazard sites that have no impact on others due to the intervention of government and man, Take that away and what happens?
I love this thread. It is a basic "how would you survive this scenario?". I think this would be a great way for all of us to spread knowledge and gain ideas from each other. Granted there will always be many different variables in every scenario, but I like the idea of having to plan my way through a scenario such as this.
I think this would be a great way for all of us to spread knowledge and gain ideas from each other.
That's what this forum is for, or was meant to be for.
From time to time, we get folks in here from other forums who take offense at the notion that anything other than the conditions of today, will ever exist. Those of us who have been around the block a couple times on these topics, are called "paranoid" or "Rambo", and accused of having "wet dreams" over the prospect of things going south, as if we are hoping for that, to prove how well "prepared" we are.
At age 69 and with two grown children and six young grandchildren, having things go south is NOT something I'm hoping for. Nor do I fit the description of Rambo, or Mall Ninja. I'm a regular guy who cares about his family, and enjoys figuring new ways to do things so they cost less, are easier, and fit my lifestyle.
Don't reply to trolls. I tried that; it doesn't work. Use the "Ignore" feature when you find one!
I love this thread. It is a basic "how would you survive this scenario?". I think this would be a great way for all of us to spread knowledge and gain ideas from each other. Granted there will always be many different variables in every scenario, but I like the idea of having to plan my way through a scenario such as this.
Many come to that Ah-Sheet moment when they have to face the issues they have no control over. That's when the reality sinks in like a 2 X 4 upside the back of their head. However, in the big picture, they will be better off facing those harsh unattractive realities instead of continuing to pretend they don't exist because it;s not sexy to deal with them. It's also a very daunting task to now go from the supposed SHTF scenario to the real now what in a SHTF scenario. Planning for how that emergency will disrupt what you normally take for granted just isn't fun. Having to confront the reality of a danger and deal with it isn't as exciting as planning for only what you want to think will happen.
Let's take the most simplest and basic of all research. There exist at least 15 million known toxic and hazardous sites in the US that can kick the heck out of humans. The majority (90%) are contained such as a chemical manufacturing plants, munition storage area, sewer treatment plants, viral waste sites, chemical transport vehicles, cleaning supply distributor, biological packaging, etc,m etc, etc.... Most of these pose no immediate danger to humans, animals or vegetation because they are contained and monitored by people tasked with that responsibility and often a government agency watching over them. But, in a SHTF scenarios, when the oversight disappears and those containing the danger are nowhere to be found, whose keeping that danger at bay?
It takes very little research to use federal, regional authorities, state, county and local government resources to pinpoint where they are, what danger they pose and what can happen when nobody is minding the store. By example, look at all those Superfund sites located along waterways. Currently the danger is contained and often there is no migration of hazardous or toxic substances back into the waterways. But in a SHTF, those containment systems and those keeping those systems operational are gone so what happens? It goes back to polluting the waterway. If you are downstream, it just may be something you want to know about.
All it takes is to decide you want to know. Unfortunately, many are afraid to know because it just may mean they have to deal with it and that may be too much for them to handle. I tell everyone who has a location they think will be their safety net, do some basic checking to see what is around you. If you find something, just spend a moment and ask yourself, why isn't it an issue now? And, could it be an issue later?
I think one reason this thread is interesting is because it's not stuck in the "government disappears, city folks are all dead meat, hords of raping ghetto people are coming, I have my jars of pickled artichokes, I can make a nuclear reactor from an old troy lawn mower and have electricity" No, it's been allowed to examine all the why's? will this happen? and more important its addressing the issue of B follows A, which is followed by C which next means D. It's a logical examination of those things normally ignored in a fantasy rant.
Your biggest problem will be the millions of predators between you and the river. A lot of them will be wanting anything you have on you. I would say your chances are zero. You wouldn't make it a mile if your starting point is LA. The people who have the best chance at surviving are those who started planning a long time ago and live in a remote part of the country.
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