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Old 02-07-2019, 10:32 AM
 
661 posts, read 521,642 times
Reputation: 704

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Quote:
Originally Posted by my54ford View Post
It would better for the STHTF in the dead of winter... More initial die off, Less chance for the populations centers to clear out to the countryside. State wide we have @ 2 billion tons of corn and @ 500 million bushels of soybeans in the bins, and almost 9 million hogs in the state.
Yeah, like my area on the Great Lakes. If SHTF, too many people in the city will just die of hypothermia or some other thing.


Just a week ago we hit record high cold temperatures.

Last edited by ghostee; 02-07-2019 at 11:48 AM..
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Old 02-07-2019, 01:21 PM
 
Location: SE corner of the Ozark Redoubt
8,918 posts, read 4,649,221 times
Reputation: 9242
Quote:
Originally Posted by ghostee View Post
Yeah, like my area on the Great Lakes. If SHTF, too many people in the city will just die of hypothermia or some other thing.

Just a week ago we hit record high cold temperatures.
In the summer, in the south,
there is the mirror image of this.

Deprived of A/C and safe water, many people
will die of dehydration in the first couple weeks.
(Whether they attempt escape from the cities, or not.)
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Old 02-07-2019, 07:38 PM
 
Location: Myrtle Creek, Oregon
15,293 posts, read 17,684,015 times
Reputation: 25236
You guys don't give people enough credit. At the outside, I would expect fatalities to be under 10%. The bottom layer that has no initiative, and the people only being kept alive by modern medicine, would be toast. That leaves you with a healthier and more active population.

I don't see hoarding and hiding to be a viable survival strategy. You want to be seen as a valuable member of a well organized group, worth defending because people depend on your contribution.
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Old 02-07-2019, 08:03 PM
 
Location: Where the mountains touch the sky
6,756 posts, read 8,579,743 times
Reputation: 14969
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
You guys don't give people enough credit. At the outside, I would expect fatalities to be under 10%. The bottom layer that has no initiative, and the people only being kept alive by modern medicine, would be toast. That leaves you with a healthier and more active population.

I don't see hoarding and hiding to be a viable survival strategy. You want to be seen as a valuable member of a well organized group, worth defending because people depend on your contribution.
A big part of that strategy depends on the people around you which you have very little control over. Trying to depend on the good will and helpfulness of people in most cities and urban areas is a surefire plan for failure.

Unless moving to a more rural area with a history of helping each other in an emergency is part of your plan, expect for a large number of useless people demanding you take care of them re: New Orleans after Katrina, Puerto Rico after the hurricane in 2017, etc. etc. etc....
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Old 02-07-2019, 09:24 PM
 
Location: Myrtle Creek, Oregon
15,293 posts, read 17,684,015 times
Reputation: 25236
Quote:
Originally Posted by MTSilvertip View Post
A big part of that strategy depends on the people around you which you have very little control over. Trying to depend on the good will and helpfulness of people in most cities and urban areas is a surefire plan for failure.

Unless moving to a more rural area with a history of helping each other in an emergency is part of your plan, expect for a large number of useless people demanding you take care of them re: New Orleans after Katrina, Puerto Rico after the hurricane in 2017, etc. etc. etc....
A few weeks of caring for yourself is a good idea, but things will quickly get organized. Without FEMA, the survivors in NOLA would have been dead fairly quickly, but the vast majority of the population evacuated and was ready to move back in. You may not like the new organization, but being seen as an asset rather than a problem puts you in a better position no matter who is running things.
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Old 02-08-2019, 04:38 AM
 
Location: Minnysoda
10,659 posts, read 10,727,332 times
Reputation: 6745
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
You guys don't give people enough credit. At the outside, I would expect fatalities to be under 10%. The bottom layer that has no initiative, and the people only being kept alive by modern medicine, would be toast. That leaves you with a healthier and more active population.

I don't see hoarding and hiding to be a viable survival strategy. You want to be seen as a valuable member of a well organized group, worth defending because people depend on your contribution.
Like Capt. of the Volunteer FD or one of the 3 people that can run the Municipal Power and Water system?
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Old 02-08-2019, 05:01 AM
 
Location: rural south west UK
5,406 posts, read 3,601,746 times
Reputation: 6649
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
You guys don't give people enough credit. At the outside, I would expect fatalities to be under 10%. The bottom layer that has no initiative, and the people only being kept alive by modern medicine, would be toast. That leaves you with a healthier and more active population.

I don't see hoarding and hiding to be a viable survival strategy. You want to be seen as a valuable member of a well organized group, worth defending because people depend on your contribution.
10% is far too low, a survey in America asked people how long they could survive and 75% answered they would be dead within 2 months.
official government projections this side of the pond as long ago as the 80s say that in a catastrophic national event the population would HALVE every 6 months levelling out at the 18months time line.
"hoarding and hiding" or storing and hunkering down is the only real alternative to the mass panic that would ensue, once the "die off" is over maybe then we can come out and see who is left but caution would still be advised.

Last edited by bigpaul; 02-08-2019 at 06:11 AM..
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Old 02-08-2019, 12:04 PM
 
Location: Myrtle Creek, Oregon
15,293 posts, read 17,684,015 times
Reputation: 25236
Quote:
Originally Posted by my54ford View Post
Like Capt. of the Volunteer FD or one of the 3 people that can run the Municipal Power and Water system?
Like that. I have friends who are EMTs and medical professionals. I have a friend who leads Red Cross disaster response teams. I'm certified with the Incident Command System and am on call with the local fire and sheriff. It's why I suggested communications as a specialty.

Responses to something like an EMP will have to coordinate locally. There are professionals in every community that know how to organize a response, and every community has resources that only a professional would know about.

The ICS allows local jurisdictions to integrate fairly seamlessly with larger responses and adjoining jurisdictions. I recommend going through the certification course. It will give you an idea of the structure you will be looking at and give you a sense of where you can fit in. Every police, fire, National Guard unit and emergency responder in the US is trained in the ICS. Going through the course only takes a few hours.

https://training.fema.gov/is/courseo...?code=IS-100.c

You have to have a Department of Homeland Security student ID number to take the final, but you can do the course without it. If you get the student ID, you are registered with DHS and FEMA and will get a certificate of completion you can show local authorities. Have a CCP? The sheriff would know you can pass a background check.

Certainly store adequate supplies for an emergency. That's only sensible. Hiding is not so sensible. Sooner or later your supplies will run out, but if you work in a field kitchen you won't go hungry. Emergency responders will have water, food and shelter. They will have an organization making sure they get that. If you respond early and are useful, they will give you increasing responsibility just because you know what is going on. Come crawling out of your hole two months later and you are just another flea bitten problem to deal with.
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Old 02-08-2019, 02:40 PM
 
Location: SE corner of the Ozark Redoubt
8,918 posts, read 4,649,221 times
Reputation: 9242
Quote:
Originally Posted by my54ford View Post
Like Capt. of the Volunteer FD or one of the 3 people that can run the Municipal Power and Water system?
Would be more like jury rig the power so that you can get the water system to run.

When things begin to fall apart, the super reliable power system we have will not be reliable or regulated (mass fluctuations) or may not operate at all.
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Old 02-08-2019, 02:58 PM
 
Location: Cody, WY
10,420 posts, read 14,601,055 times
Reputation: 22025
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
Like that. I have friends who are EMTs and medical professionals. I have a friend who leads Red Cross disaster response teams. I'm certified with the Incident Command System and am on call with the local fire and sheriff. It's why I suggested communications as a specialty.

Responses to something like an EMP will have to coordinate locally. There are professionals in every community that know how to organize a response, and every community has resources that only a professional would know about.

The ICS allows local jurisdictions to integrate fairly seamlessly with larger responses and adjoining jurisdictions. I recommend going through the certification course. It will give you an idea of the structure you will be looking at and give you a sense of where you can fit in. Every police, fire, National Guard unit and emergency responder in the US is trained in the ICS. Going through the course only takes a few hours.

https://training.fema.gov/is/courseo...?code=IS-100.c

You have to have a Department of Homeland Security student ID number to take the final, but you can do the course without it. If you get the student ID, you are registered with DHS and FEMA and will get a certificate of completion you can show local authorities. Have a CCP? The sheriff would know you can pass a background check.

Certainly store adequate supplies for an emergency. That's only sensible. Hiding is not so sensible. Sooner or later your supplies will run out, but if you work in a field kitchen you won't go hungry. Emergency responders will have water, food and shelter. They will have an organization making sure they get that. If you respond early and are useful, they will give you increasing responsibility just because you know what is going on. Come crawling out of your hole two months later and you are just another flea bitten problem to deal with.
OK, folks,that's their plan to control us at local levels. Look and listen, but tell them nothing. Keep your supply inventory to yourself; keep your skills to yourself as well. Stay far from them. Don't start your own group either. Trust your family only, and only if you can, otherwise, just yourself. Barring medical emergencies, a few months will be a piece of cake. Act in a prudent and safe manner; any accident can be fatal. Be very careful with all tools;, in fact, avoid them as much as possible. Be a little cockroach: stay out of the light. Leftists will view this as an opportunity—never forget that.
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