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You can't stop it. All this quarantine stuff is nonsense. The only thing they are accomplishing now is crashing the economy. The disease is not the problem. Its the panic. From looking at the statistics, I don't think this will ever be a big deal. Maybe as bad as the flu, but not worse. Infection rates not near as high as they project. Most of the dead will be people in very poor health and mostly elderly, over 65. But prepping still a good idea. I'm going to building up my stocks.
Don't depend on the govt. and don't trust what they say. Look out for yourself, do your own thinking.
That is what I have been saying since I began to post about it on this forum. They are way more than a week behind the curve. I figured this out on the 24th of January (posted to a different forum). It is why I have said this stuff goes through quarantine controls like a driving rainstorm goes through a screendoor.
It is why I said, some time ago, that comparing SARS-1, MERS, or Ebola to this is like comparing apples to prune juice.
That has been obvious, as you say, from clear back in January. We stopped SARS because the CDC was awake. Then the gummint turned them into paper pushers.
China stopped CV-19 by locking down a quarter of their country, and now are faced with opening it back up again. The US can't do that.
Korea has done a good job of control by rapid testing and quarantine, plus some effective treatment. At last report, their fatality rate was less than 1%. The US would need to test 100,000 people a day. That's not happening, and won't happen for weeks.
Italy has a better health system than the US, but is failing at control. Locking down the whole country may help, if it holds up. They are testing rapidly, but the results are horrifying.
The US is in deep ****. We have at least three Wuhans inside our borders; Washington, NY, and California. Florida looks to be right behind, and public health services are minimal in the South. We're about where China was in mid-December, and by mid-May it's going to be the sick and dying in the streets. Every industrialized nation in the world has a broader based health system than the US.
There are some bright spots. The Irish are running an open source 3D printer project that will allow anybody with a printer to print ventilators. No word on if they work. Some drugs show promise, but an MD friend has been trying to find a supply for 2 weeks with no success. I think we need to hunker hard for at least the next 3 months.
Oh, and forget the politicians. You know they will screw it up. This is on us. Nobody is going to come riding to our rescue.
... We stopped SARS because the CDC was awake. Then the gummint turned them into paper pushers.
China stopped CV-19 by locking down a quarter of their country, and now are faced with opening it back up again. The US can't do that.
...
Italy has a better health system than the US, but ...
... They are testing rapidly, but the results are horrifying.
The US is in deep ****. We have at least three Wuhans inside our borders; Washington, NY, and California. Florida looks to be right behind, and public health services are minimal in the South. We're about where China was in mid-December, and by mid-May it's going to be the sick and dying in the streets. Every industrialized nation in the world has a broader based health system than the US.
...
Wow, what a post. Everything I quoted from your post is incorrect.
No wonder I have you on ignore.
Wow, what a post. Everything I quoted from your post is incorrect.
No wonder I have you on ignore.
Thanks for the chuckle. You can go back to ignoring me now.
I was in town today picking up feed. I drove by the rescue mission, and wondered how long they will stay open. They have sleeping porch bunk beds for 80 guys. It's a classic petri dish. When they start to show symptoms, the mission will have no choice but to kick them onto the street to live or die on their own. I know a mentally disabled woman who lives in a group home. Same deal.
The most pronounced results seem to be seen in groups of people with the seasonally low levels of vitamin D.
rl]
Superstitious behavior starts when a cause & effect relationship is improperly deduced from a coincidental relationship.
Better conclusion from the data: less sun in the winter, so Vit D levels are lower...Flu is more prevalent in the winter: colder temps may increase infectivity (we all know the effect of "getting a chill") &/or more inside activity, therefore more chance to spread viruses among people....
...So, lower Vit D & more flu are both caused by less sun, and have no effect on each other.
It has become a fad in med research to claim Vit D levels are lower in various diseases. The problem is, there is no evidence that raising Vit D levels cures anything.
...The US would need to test 100,000 people a day.....
"Testing" is kinda like the idiot light on your car's dashboard-- it tells you "Hey fool--You just ran out of oil." Too little, too late.
A positive test may tell us this guy has to be quarantined, but a negative doesn't tell us anything. After a negative test, the guy still has to be careful and restrict contacts...And when exactly do we test again?
Why is Trump chastised for not shutting down travel soon enough for CoV, but Obama got a pass for not restricting travel at all for Ebola? He (we) was (were) just lucky Ebola was limited to such a small population & geographic area without much travel to US. Brazil wasn't so lucky. As they say, it's better to be lucky than good.
Korea has had some apparent success in shutting down travel for their small population(1/6th the size of US) which is also more subservient in attitude and likely to follow orders than say, Italians, who are ignoring recommendations to a great extent. https://www.corriere.it/
We can't "win" this war with CoV. We can only hope to come to a truce with favorable conditions in the armistice. It will be fought until herd immunity is established, and a stable, endemic infection rate is established. There will many casualties along the way.
"Testing" is kinda like the idiot light on your car's dashboard-- it tells you "Hey fool--You just ran out of oil." Too little, too late.
A positive test may tell us this guy has to be quarantined, but a negative doesn't tell us anything. After a negative test, the guy still has to be careful and restrict contacts...And when exactly do we test again?
Why is Trump chastised for not shutting down travel soon enough for CoV, but Obama got a pass for not restricting travel at all for Ebola? He (we) was (were) just lucky Ebola was limited to such a small population & geographic area without much travel to US. Brazil wasn't so lucky. As they say, it's better to be lucky than good.
Korea has had some apparent success in shutting down travel for their small population(1/6th the size of US) which is also more subservient in attitude and likely to follow orders than say, Italians, who are ignoring recommendations to a great extent. https://www.corriere.it/
We can't "win" this war with CoV. We can only hope to come to a truce with favorable conditions in the armistice. It will be fought until herd immunity is established, and a stable, endemic infection rate is established. There will many casualties along the way.
I generally agree, other than the irrelevant dip into Obama. If you get your reality from politicians, there is no help for you.
I don't criticize Trump for not understanding what was going on. Medical professionals are whining about not having protective gear. If they didn't see what was coming and stock up, why would you expect more from a moron like Trump?
The important thing about testing is to know where the outbreaks are. I like to compare CV-19 to norovirus. Norovirus is contagious as hell, but it doesn't hit everywhere. There are local outbreaks, and if you know where the outbreaks are you can manage them. Norovirus is easy to track. It has a short 48 hour incubation period, and all you have to do is follow the fudge puddles.
CV-19 is harder. We have to do testing, and a lot of testing. Not buying the WHO test and insisting we develop a real red-blooded 'murican test killed hundreds of thousands of people, who are not dead yet, and crippled our economy. It may be the worst decision in public health history. South Korea managed the epidemic by immediate, extreme testing.
At this point, we have to test everybody. With a few million tests, we'll be able to build a statistical model of where the outbreaks are. It doesn't matter if someone has been tested before, test them again. That's how we gather transmission rate data in the population. Every lab tech in the country is processing swabs right now, but the FDA has to get off its ass and approve machine testing. Every day they delay kills thousands of people. You just won't see the obituaries for a couple months.
I generally agree, other than the irrelevant dip into Obama. If you get your reality from politicians, there is no help for you.
I don't criticize Trump for not understanding what was going on. Medical professionals are whining about not having protective gear. If they didn't see what was coming and stock up, why would you expect more from a moron like Trump?
The important thing about testing is to know where the outbreaks are. I like to compare CV-19 to norovirus. Norovirus is contagious as hell, but it doesn't hit everywhere. There are local outbreaks, and if you know where the outbreaks are you can manage them. Norovirus is easy to track. It has a short 48 hour incubation period, and all you have to do is follow the fudge puddles.
CV-19 is harder. We have to do testing, and a lot of testing. Not buying the WHO test and insisting we develop a real red-blooded 'murican test killed hundreds of thousands of people, who are not dead yet, and crippled our economy. It may be the worst decision in public health history. South Korea managed the epidemic by immediate, extreme testing.
At this point, we have to test everybody. With a few million tests, we'll be able to build a statistical model of where the outbreaks are. It doesn't matter if someone has been tested before, test them again. That's how we gather transmission rate data in the population. Every lab tech in the country is processing swabs right now, but the FDA has to get off its ass and approve machine testing. Every day they delay kills thousands of people. You just won't see the obituaries for a couple months.
First, an aside into politics again: Trump had also been chastised for having disbanded the "Pandemic Task Force" established by previous administrations...If those bureaucratic leeches had been doing their job, a good plan would have already been established and supplies stockpiled. But it wasn't. That bunch wasn't doing its job.
RE: testing and Norovirus-- you don't just go around the country randomly testing for Norovirus (or any infectious disease.) You wait until there's an outbreak of similar, clinical cases. You only need to test a few of them to show what exact bug it is, mainly to find out if it's one for which there is a specific treatment. The Logic: if 12 kids in summer camp all develop diarrhea, fever etc. and you test 4 of them and they're all Norovirus, it's a good bet the rest are too....No need for further testing-- unless you're an epidemiologist and need complete data to write a paper that may be helpful for academic or planning purposes elsewhere in the future. It won't help in the treatment of this outbreak....Same argument for CoV-- a statistical sample may serve a practical purpose. More complete testing may help in predicting future out breaks...Eg- knowing that the real death rate in CoViD is, say, exactly 2.6847% won't help nurse Nancy treat pt John Smith in bed 6 today.
I generally agree, other than the irrelevant dip into Obama. If you get your reality from politicians, there is no help for you.
I don't criticize Trump for not understanding what was going on. Medical professionals are whining about not having protective gear. If they didn't see what was coming and stock up, why would you expect more from a moron like Trump?
The important thing about testing is to know where the outbreaks are. I like to compare CV-19 to norovirus. Norovirus is contagious as hell, but it doesn't hit everywhere. There are local outbreaks, and if you know where the outbreaks are you can manage them. Norovirus is easy to track. It has a short 48 hour incubation period, and all you have to do is follow the fudge puddles.
CV-19 is harder. We have to do testing, and a lot of testing. Not buying the WHO test and insisting we develop a real red-blooded 'murican test killed hundreds of thousands of people, who are not dead yet, and crippled our economy. It may be the worst decision in public health history. South Korea managed the epidemic by immediate, extreme testing.
At this point, we have to test everybody. With a few million tests, we'll be able to build a statistical model of where the outbreaks are. It doesn't matter if someone has been tested before, test them again. That's how we gather transmission rate data in the population. Every lab tech in the country is processing swabs right now, but the FDA has to get off its ass and approve machine testing. Every day they delay kills thousands of people. You just won't see the obituaries for a couple months.
First off medical personal are not "whining about not having protective gear" this is dire. Second where do you think this medical gear comes from? Would you believe China? Yep. So if the normal supply chain is disrupted because the factories are closed down in China for a month, who do you turn to? Oh I don't know, maybe the leaders in our country that are elected to solve the big problems?
I'm glad you agree that not accepting the tests for Covid from WHO, which are used around the world was a grave mistake and huge misstep by Trump. It was indeed, and you're right, many will die because of it. The collateral damage is also immeasurable. Each year health care workers die from something they've picked up from one of their patients. I've been dealing with something I picked up in 2006, but I'm one of the lucky ones that didn't die. There are still not enough tests despite the daily lies from Trump that there are. I have 5 friends still working in the big box hospital close to our house. One Covid case became 10 two days later. They are running low on supplies. I'm terrified for them.
You are 100% correct about testing and tracking, so where's the tests? Should the health care workers whine about that along with PPE?
We have been through this before in 2003. Do any of you remember the SARS epidemic here in the USA , Canada, and other places around the globe? No? Me neither until I started researching why SARS Cov in 2003 didn't impact us. Well it did. We had over 100 cases in 29 states. So if it was seeded here why didn't it turn into an epidemic? Did those "Blood sucking" pandemic response team leeches do their job? The answer is yes they did. They kept it under control and it was completely shut down in 3 months without disruption to our economy. Don't believe me? Good. I want everyone to read about it on the CDC timeline in 2003.
Did Trump mishandle this crisis? Yes he did. Was it a mistake disbanding the pandemic office and losing the sharpest people to handle this? Yes it was. Is this going to happen again? Yes it will. Trump knew that, but in his infinite "I've got a gut feeling" wisdom and "I'm the ultimate decision maker" who doesn't believe in science? Alrighty then. If you're going to be the be all know all, then the buck stops with you. This was a disaster that could have been blunted early with the right people in charge. Trump? Too little too late. So much for the Democratic hoax.
We have been through this before in 2003. Do any of you remember the SARS epidemic here in the USA , Canada, and other places around the globe? No? Me neither until I started researching why SARS Cov in 2003 didn't impact us. Well it did. We had over 100 cases in 29 states. So if it was seeded here why didn't it turn into an epidemic? Did those "Blood sucking" pandemic response team leeches do their job? The answer is yes they did. They kept it under control and it was completely shut down in 3 months without disruption to our economy. Don't believe me? Good. I want everyone to read about it on the CDC timeline in 2003.
So why have the case numbers of COVID-19 already surpassed those of SARS by Jan 30, 2020?
First, the situation is different. Wuhan, the epicentre of COVID-19, combines multiple elements that make containment challenging...
... A second explanation might be that the infectious period is different. Isolation was effective for SARS because peak viral shedding occurred after patients were already quite ill with respiratory symptoms and could be easily identified. ...
... A third explanation could be that the transmissibility might be higher for COVID-19 than for SARS...
... A fourth explanation is that the clinical spectrum is different. China's initial case definition was focused on pneumonia, and initial case fatality rates (CFR) were reported at about 10% on the basis of this narrow case definition...
... A fifth explanation is that community spread is more prominent. Whereas SARS was mainly an outbreak propagated within hospitals, widespread community transmission is already evident for COVID-19.
There is NO COMPARISON between SARS and COVID-19 for the above reasons. SARS burned itself out largely because it caused illness or killed before it could spread.
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