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Well, since apparently this thread is about conjecture and predicting the future without regard for any citable proof, I will put forth my OPINION. My crystal ball says....
I believe that people in the hardest hit areas (WA, NY, CA, etc) will obey shelter in place rules for the most part. I believe "spreader shaming" will become "a thing" causing most to follow the guidelines there and in other places. I further believe that this will lead to the curve being flattened. I believe that in the meantime a treatment will be found (such as the anti-malarial that is being tested presently, or another antiviral) and the majority of future cases will be treated successfully in the U.S. after that time, but that recovery will not be 100% effective for some, and for some of the already infected it will be too late. I think that many will recover or be asymptomatic, and the majority of folks will then have immunity. I think that eventually a vaccine will be developed and it will become as routine as a measles or chickenpox vaccine. I also feel that the worst will be over here by June/July 2020 timeframe, and that the vaccine will come out in 2021.
18 months from now we will be driving around the desert in cobbled together muscle cars, killing each other with crossbows for a gallon of gasoline.
Oh ya we will all be wearing really cool spiked letter jackets too, some of us might even score a really bad @ss spiked leather cod piece.
18 months from now we will be driving around the desert in cobbled together muscle cars, killing each other with crossbows for a gallon of gasoline.
Oh ya we will all be wearing really cool spiked letter jackets too, some of us might even score a really bad @ss spiked leather cod piece.
Whether we're talking about wolves or viruses, it's always the lame & infirm who get picked off first.
Data from Italy now shows the 20-50 crowd is getting hit hard, too. The death rate may be slightly lower, but the permanent lung damage may be higher.
Some of us are old enough to remember the polio epidemic prior to the development of the Sabin & Salk vaccines in the mid-50s. City parks, particularly beaches & pools were empty. That wasn't quite as infectious as CoV seems to be, so commerce wasn't affected quite as much. My 91 y/o Ma recalls Chicago Public schools being closed for a 3 month stretch in the late 30s-- school classes were offered on radio.
The experts on TV are all talking as if this epidemic is one that can be "won." Define "won?" It won't be wiped out. Right now, all the efforts are being directed at slowing it's rate of spread so as not to overwhelm the medical facilities a la' rush hour in the subway....But these steps won't eradicate the presence of the virus in the community, so the number of infected people will continue to rise until the general population has been exposed and develops a level of immunity that creates a stable equilibrium level of new infections.
Hope for a vaccine? You see how well that works for influenza-- You need a new one every year because the bug mutates so quickly, and half the time the manufacturers guess wrong on which one to produce....CoV has only been around for a few weeks. We have no idea how quickly it will mutate. They're working a vaccine now that may well be obsolete by the time it's ready for use.
Long term effects? Impossible to say right now. It depends on what that equilibrium balance of infection rate turns out to be. Remember that 1 in 10,000 of us die in MV accidents each year. That appears to be an acceptable level of risk.
Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst.
Good stuff. I'm 33 and appreciate the historical perspective you included.
18 months from now we will be driving around the desert in cobbled together muscle cars, killing each other with crossbows for a gallon of gasoline.
Oh ya we will all be wearing really cool spiked letter jackets too, some of us might even score a really bad @ss spiked leather cod piece.
This fantasy is made all the better by the fact that the commenter who made it is from the state in the contiguous US that's located furthest from the desert.
This fantasy is made all the better by the fact that the commenter who made it is from the state in the contiguous US that's located furthest from the desert.
So.... you're saying the whole country is going to be a desert!
This fantasy is made all the better by the fact that the commenter who made it is from the state in the contiguous US that's located furthest from the desert.
Not all deserts are hot.The Red Desert and surrounding area in Wyoming is the most arid region in the country. Summers are hot, but winters are frigid.
Pretty hard to know what the new reality will be in a year or so, but there will be many changes. I would guess, for one, there will be a lot less eating out. Restaurants will fold all over the place. Also, I think leasure travel will be in serious decline. Some Cruise lines will fold. A lot less air travel.
augiedogie said:I would guess, for one, there will be a lot less eating out. Restaurants will fold all over the place.
I agree with part of this, that there will less sit-down dining except maybe very expensive ones.
My prediction is fast-food will shut down their dining areas and be drive-thru, pick-up food only. No walk-ins, no face to face, less chance of transmission of this virus or the next one.
So.... you're saying the whole country is going to be a desert!
Something like that, heh.
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