Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
You're being overly harsh on the Equation by saying that it could be rendered useless by "plugging in" unsubstantiated or even intentionally-inaccurate numbers.
Well, sure you could, but That's like saying you could plug "whatever numbers you like" for the "E" and the "M" (since the "C" speed-of-light is a constant) into E=MC2 and obtain "any value you desire." Under the GIGO rule most formulas could be sullied.
BUT-- If cosmologists begin the equation with an educated guess of possible candidate planets (no wishful thinking involved!) then the Equation can serve to show us that there should really be no reason that our planet is special, and that even if we are one out a billion, life very likely could be rampant in the Universe.
And there is total absence at this time of any scientific data hinting that we ARE special. Our sun is very average; our solar system is unremarkable;and our MIlky Way Galaxy appears to be simply one out of billions of similar elliptical-types. Planets orbiting in "the Goldilocks Zone" are very likely numerous, even if only one out of a 9-planet solar system, like us, exist. (Or even one out of a 60-planet solar system!)
Over the course of the past several years, some cosmologists HAVE added a couple more conditions they believe may be needed in a solar system for one planet to harbor intelligent life. For example, some say you need a Jupiter-like gas giant on the periphery so as to gravitationally deflect or sway any potentially harmful (or fatal!) space debris like meteors or asteroids or comets from impacting your planet.
But I don't believe that alters the odds of life out there much at all, since solar systems with gas giants on the outside of the smaller, denser planets should be the norm, given the laws of motion and gravity and Newtonian physics.
It is very obviously that you have utterly no clue what you are talking about. First, you make the bogus claim that the Drake Equation is based "purely on laws of statistical probability." Which it clearly is not. Then, you claim it is "an educated guess" with "no wishful thinking involved!" Do you even bother to read your own posts? Or are simply not capable of comprehending that an "educated guess" is the same thing as "wishful thinking?"
There are no valid or invalid numbers that can be plugged into the Drake Equation, because it is all entirely unsubstantiated and pure speculation without any basis in fact whatsoever. No matter what numbers you use, the Drake Equation is entirely "wishful thinking."
Ummm ... not quite. An educated guess has some measure of knowledge involved. Wishful thinking on the other hand is, well, just wishful thinking.
Then in the case of the Drake Equation it is entirely "wishful thinking" since there was no knowledge involved.
In defense of Dr. Drake, his equation was never intended to be used literally. It was merely a talking point he presented at the first SETI conference in 1961 to discuss the probability of intelligent extra-terrestrial life. The values he used were, and still are, complete speculation with absolutely no basis in fact.
Well, sure you could, but That's like saying you could plug "whatever numbers you like" for the "E" and the "M" (since the "C" speed-of-light is a constant) into E=MC2 and obtain "any value you desire." Under the GIGO rule most formulas could be sullied.
Sure you could. And the answer would be totally meaningless, because it would have absolutely no basis in factual data.
Just like the Drake Equation. Most of the parameters of the equation are impossible to know, or even accurately guess at, so there is no way at all of determining the probability of any solution.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hombre_Corriendo
BUT-- If cosmologists begin the equation with an educated guess of possible candidate planets (no wishful thinking involved!) then the Equation can serve to show us that there should really be no reason that our planet is special, and that even if we are one out a billion, life very likely could be rampant in the Universe.
All of which is fine, but it does nothing to change the fact that the Drake Equation doesn't get you any closer to calculating - or even accurately guessing - the number of civilizations or habitable planets in our universe than if you'd just randomly picked a number out of thin air. I could just look up at the Milky Way some night and say, "587", and have just as much chance of being right as if I'd arrived at that number by using the Drake Equation. Because they're both passed on pure guesses, and a guess is a guess is a guess.
Location: The High Desert of the American Southwest
214 posts, read 230,623 times
Reputation: 364
Quote:
Originally Posted by 303Guy
Ummm ... not quite. An educated guess has some measure of knowledge involved. Wishful thinking on the other hand is, well, just wishful thinking.
Exactly. Thank you! Glitch is a bit slow on the uptake in this whole matter, and obviously has a preconceived notion against the probability--yes, not "possibility" but probability--of the existence of an abundance of life in the Universe. Thus, I fear any further debate with him on my part would be fruitless.
There are many, many things that we enjoy here on Earth that make life possible that most don't even realize. From the size of our moon, the position of Jupiter in our solar system, and even our location in the Milky Way galaxy (we're also in the galactic "sweet spot") so there is much more to a hospitable planet than just good temperatures and liquid water.
I'm not sure how many scientists factor this is when coming up with the numbers of civilizations in the galaxy and universe.
That's interesting. What makes our part favourable and others not?
The center of the Milky Way is rife with gravitational disturbances and radiation that would pulverize our little planet so the closer in you go, the more of these things there are that could potentially strip away our atmosphere, or send comets as well as other cosmic debris our way. Being incredibly close to the center would be devastating to complex life trying to evolve on a planet. Stars close to the extreme center where it is believed what's called a "supermassive black hole" sits even swing around very violently.
Spiral arms are also bad news due to many of the same reasons but to a lesser degree. Luckily, our sun revolves around the center of the galaxy near the outer edge and in between two spiral arms. Additionally, we revolve at roughly the same speed as the arms so we rarely, if ever cross into one.
The greater density of stars in the interior of the galaxy means a greater risk that life developing that deep inside the Milky Way would be exterminated by the gamma burst from a collapsing star. But on the other hand, if we were orbiting too far out from the center, we'd be in a region of space where heavy elements essential to the formation of life are much less common, because these materials are formed in supernovae and there aren't enough supernovae occurring that far out. So we're pretty much right in the galactic "goldilocks zone" for formation and evolution of intelligent life.
Thank you both. I didn't know we were between two spiral arms.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
An educated guess has some measure of knowledge involved. Wishful thinking on the other hand is, well, just wishful thinking. 
