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The day after the Preakness early odds showed 8 horses and Mubtaahij was last on the list and the long shot among those. Now as the field has gone to 12 Mubtaahij is up to 4th. Also, if you watch the Belmont videos for Secretariat and Affirmed and Seattle Slew you see three Triple Crown winners in a span of 6 years but none since. Affirmed and Secretariat only had to beat 4 horses to win the Belmont. One of the 4 against Affirmed was Alydar who did race in all three and Affirmed barely won by a nose.You can check the field each year and see how many horses raced in all three, and it is very few.
Alydar came within a length and half of winning the Triple Crown. All three races were highly competitive with Affirmed and Alydar together at the wire in all three.
Any true horse player will not care about the "odds." I could care less what the general public thinks. It means nothing to me when backing a horse I think has a chance to win. This is especially true for program odds which are nothing more than a track "handicapper" guessing how the public is likely to bet.
We like Mubtaahij and he is the fourth favorite now vs. 8th last Sunday. The odds came from Vegas not some program.
How is that any different?
An "oddsmaker" is just that. I'm not buying that his (assuming it is a he) elevated job title means anything.
Speaking of Mubtaahij I am confused at this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by howard555
Mubtaahij 16-1 (this may be the horses's first race in the US = good horse but unknowns)
His somewhat poor performance in the Derby disappointed me and I am not sure I am doing the right thing by giving him a second chance. I backed off of him a bit because I did not like the way he looked on the Churchill track. But before the race he looked okay but still not as good as clips I have seen of him in the past.
Post time for the June 6 Belmont Stakes has been moved to 6:50.
Wondering if Firing Line will run. And will Mubtaahij improve from a disappointing Derby. Yeah, I bet them both. Why I'm thinking of backing both of these horses after they let me down is a mystery. Firing Line is way better than he showed in the Preakness. I maintain his poor start cost him any chance. If entered and it rains all bets are off. No doubt that had everything to do with his poor Preakness performance.
Mubtaahij has great distance genes but is he good enough? I should get 20-1 easy. Firing Line, assuming he runs, should be at least 13-1.
Firing Line will not go in the Belmont as they're giving him some time off. I agree that he is much better than shown in the Preakness, and that line is a complete throwout. When Stevens saw his ears pinned back during the warm-up he knew then that it was not going to be their day. Even the horse knew they shouldn't have been out there in that storm.
Mubtaahij is a probable starter, though, and he had a nice work on Sunday. His connections are among the best in the game, so he will be ready for a good effort. Your odds should approach what you're hoping for based upon his lackluster effort in the Derby. For many he was an automatic throwout because of the Euro's poor record, plus some didn't like the idea that he was training at Arlington instead of CD. However, he was trained on the Meydan synthetic training track so it made sense that the trainer would continue with that program. The Sky Hill Center, with its synthetic track, was their first choice, but Mubtaahij was enjoying his food and surroundings so they decided not to move him once he was out of quarantine.
I liked his sire and grandsire so I gave him a long look for the KD. He had beaten older, raced farther than his competitors, and was visually impressive in his UAE Derby victory. His time wasn't very fast, though. Now I know that it's a fools errand to compare raw times on different surfaces, but he also had a picture-perfect, ground-saving trip against less than stellar rivals. His guestimated Beyer fig was 95.
While the added distance and smaller field won't hurt his cause, he will need to be closer to the pace in the Belmont, but his connections are confident that he can handle that. Looking ahead there is rain forecast for the 6th, and an off-track would also help his chances.
Handicapping is a joy but one of the tough tasks is eliminating good horses. This is a nice horse but I think that he's in over his head here.
Firing Line will not go in the Belmont as they're giving him some time off. I agree that he is much better than shown in the Preakness, and that line is a complete throwout. When Stevens saw his ears pinned back during the warm-up he knew then that it was not going to be their day. Even the horse knew they shouldn't have been out there in that storm.
Mubtaahij is a probable starter, though, and he had a nice work on Sunday. His connections are among the best in the game, so he will be ready for a good effort. Your odds should approach what you're hoping for based upon his lackluster effort in the Derby. For many he was an automatic throwout because of the Euro's poor record, plus some didn't like the idea that he was training at Arlington instead of CD. However, he was trained on the Meydan synthetic training track so it made sense that the trainer would continue with that program. The Sky Hill Center, with its synthetic track, was their first choice, but Mubtaahij was enjoying his food and surroundings so they decided not to move him once he was out of quarantine.
I liked his sire and grandsire so I gave him a long look for the KD. He had beaten older, raced farther than his competitors, and was visually impressive in his UAE Derby victory. His time wasn't very fast, though. Now I know that it's a fools errand to compare raw times on different surfaces, but he also had a picture-perfect, ground-saving trip against less than stellar rivals. His guestimated Beyer fig was 95.
While the added distance and smaller field won't hurt his cause, he will need to be closer to the pace in the Belmont, but his connections are confident that he can handle that. Looking ahead there is rain forecast for the 6th, and an off-track would also help his chances.
Handicapping is a joy but one of the tough tasks is eliminating good horses. This is a nice horse but I think that he's in over his head here.
Mike de **** would have taken Mubtaahij back to South Africa if he wasn't going to run in the Belmont. He's a lock to start.
He stayed behind in Arlington Park due to weight loss from his 20 hour trip to the states. My understanding is he went there first due to de ****'s connections there and had to stay at a USDA-certified quarantine facility. He couldn't get his feed because it is banned by the FDA. But I followed him closely and he was eating and putting weight back on before the Derby. Why he arrived so late in the States is a question only de **** can answer.
This time of season 3 year olds can improve dramatically. You mention that Beyer 95 that he ran in Dubai, well I heard it was 93. Nevertheless it has to be hard to gauge. Even if it was somewhere around or between I think he is capable of improving enough to win on June 6. He will be closer to the pace because that is his running style.
Note: Part of Mubtaahij's trainer's last name is censored here. Reverse: Kcok
Mike de **** would have taken Mubtaahij back to South Africa if he wasn't going to run in the Belmont. He's a lock to start.
He stayed behind in Arlington Park due to weight loss from his 20 hour trip to the states. My understanding is he went there first due to de ****'s connections there and had to stay at a USDA-certified quarantine facility. He couldn't get his feed because it is banned by the FDA. But I followed him closely and he was eating and putting weight back on before the Derby. Why he arrived so late in the States is a question only de **** can answer.
This time of season 3 year olds can improve dramatically. You mention that Beyer 95 that he ran in Dubai, well I heard it was 93. Nevertheless it has to be hard to gauge. Even if it was somewhere around or between I think he is capable of improving enough to win on June 6. He will be closer to the pace because that is his running style.
Note: Part of Mubtaahij's trainer's last name is censored here. Reverse: Kcok
I didn't say that he was a "possible" starter, I said that he was a "probable" starter.
Owners, trainers, and jockeys dream of having a horse in the Derby. Yet, this year 3 starters were scratched from the field of 20. Horses get injured in training, they can develop a fever, or have swelling around a joint. We're still 12 days out from entries being taken, so now we have 11 "projected" or "probable" starters and 3 of them don't even have riders assigned yet. My experience has shown that nothing is a "lock" in horseracing. YMMV.
Note: Mubtaahij has a new rider - Irad Ortiz - which most certainly will help his chances. Two years ago Ortiz rode Incognito to a 4th place finish in the Belmont at 18/1.
I didn't say that he was a "possible" starter, I said that he was a "probable" starter.
Owners, trainers, and jockeys dream of having a horse in the Derby. Yet, this year 3 starters were scratched from the field of 20. Horses get injured in training, they can develop a fever, or have swelling around a joint. We're still 12 days out from entries being taken, so now we have 11 "projected" or "probable" starters and 3 of them don't even have riders assigned yet. My experience has shown that nothing is a "lock" in horseracing. YMMV.
Note: Mubtaahij has a new rider - Irad Ortiz - which most certainly will help his chances. Two years ago Ortiz rode Incognito to a 4th place finish in the Belmont at 18/1.
Soumillon has obligations in a contract overseas. FWIW he was not fired.
I like Ortiz a lot and he knows the track. My odds dropped with this decision today.
I took a look at the Derby replay this morning 3 times and Mubtaahij got the worst of that traffic jam at the start of the race. I counted 3 times that he was steadied when trying to get into position He also broke a step slow and was squeezed a little coming out of the starting gate. He ran on evenly and it didn't look to me that he was tired. I fully expect him to be much closer to the lead this time.
At least 30 minutes before post time, come here and post your wagers.
I won't be able to do that, nor do I wish to disclose. I work Saturday's and will head to a harness track in MD to watch the race. So happy the post time was moved up.
I'm backing Mubtaahij again.
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