Tennis - Australian Open 2018 (pro, popularity, balls, Reading)

[MAGAalot]

Djokovic has a new surface motion, so it takes time for him to find rhythm, because its not in his muscle memory yet.
So he'll probably lose the first set against a lot of his opponents because his serve won't be in rhythm until later in the match.

I think Djokovic's serve was the only thing that beat Nadal at 2012ao, and also at 2011uso when Djokovic got lots of free points on serve in the 4th set.
So I think Nadal will hurt Djokovic badly if they meet now, because Nadal has the better serve now (and Nadal also had the better serve at 2010uso and 2013uso).

But I think Djokovic can beat Federer even if Djokovic doesn't serve well, because Djokovic forces Federer into long rallies which Federer struggles with, and it gets harder for Federer when it becomes a marathon.

I mean Federer is great at marathons but he's not great at Djokovic's marathons because they have those long rallies.
And Federer isn't good at net-rushing against Djokovic, usually ends up with Federer making errors or Djokovic hitting passing shot winners.

[SonnyCrockett]

What happened in that final set with Kyrgios and Tsongas? Tsongas was up 5-2 in the tie break, and then lost 7-5. Is Kyrgios a guy, especially in his back yard, that can finally get over the hump and at least go further than he always seems to in the big tournaments? I keep hearing this will be the one, and it never materializes.

[savoytruffle]

I am not sure what the expectations for Kyrgios are. I think he is likely to beat Dimitrov, who hasn't looked good - unless he has a meltdown, and it seems like he is getting a handle on those. Whether or not he could make it past the QF is another story.

I didn't have much time to check out the Tsonga match but it seemed like they played at a high level in the first set, anyway. And looking at the score it stayed close. Tsonga should have gotten that fourth set TB though. I would've been interested to see how Kyrgios handled a fifth set.

Nadal looked good against Dzumhur, but that's another player who doesn't really have any weapons to use against him. I don't think Schwartzman stands much of a chance either. If he does ultimately play Kyrgios then that's going to be real interesting. Nadal does look good so far compared to the times he has lost to Kyrgios before, so I like his chances, but you never know.

[Derek41]

One guy who is slipping quietly under the radar is Marin Cilic.
He has done nothing really at the AO since his 2010 semi-final appearance, but on his day can hit through anyone.
Still has to get past PCB, but looms as a dangerous QF opponent for Nadal.

[MAGAalot]

Even if Cilic reproduces his 2014 US Open form, Nadal will still beat him in straight sets.
When I see Cilic play Nadal, it looks like Cilic is on stilts and is always off-balance.
Its a laughable QF match-up, akin to a bye.

The only time Cilic ever beat Nadal was 2009, and that year Nadal was so bad he was losing in straight sets to guys all over the place.
I don't think PCB will take a set from Nadal either, but at least he'll look like he belongs on the same court as Nadal.
Cilic whereas, is clueless vs Nadal.

[savoytruffle]

Dang it! The way ESPN had the draw laid out I thought Kyrgios would meet Nadal in the QF, not Cilic, but I was wrong. Anyway, I have a while before I can really talk about a Nadal/Kyrgios matchup, then.

I actually feel a lot better about a Nadal/Cilic QF. I'm with Haha. I think not only would Cilic have to play incredibly, but Nadal would have to be off. So far, he hasn't been. In recent years I have been more nervous about Nadal's consistency, but it seems he turned a corner last year, Wimbledon notwithstanding. Still, you never know what could happen.

Federer should beat Gasquet tonight...I have no idea about Ramos-Vinolas, but it remains the case that Djokovic will have to get through tough seeded players to advance.

Otherwise, Berdych/del Potro gets my attention, maybe Thiem/Mannarino also. Meanwhile, some men I've never heard of are going to advance to the 4th Round here. That's kind of fun.

[MAGAalot]

And even at Wimbledon last year Nadal was awesome, he won the first 3 matches in straight sets, and then lost to Muller in R4, but Nadal hit 77 winners and 17 unforced errors in that loss.
Nadal-Muller was the highest level of Wimbledon.
No surprise Muller didn't win Wimbledon, because most guys can't play more than one great match per year, it requires too much concentration and effort for most guys to repeat.

[Derek41]

A Zverev gone, not surprising given his Slam record - yet to get past the R16 in a slam.
Delpo also gone against veteran Tomas Berdych.
Not that surprising either, Delpo has not done much at the AO and has underachieved down here, and is more or less just a dangerous floater in early rounds now.

[MAGAalot]

Originally Posted by Derek41

A Zverev gone, not surprising given his Slam record - yet to get past the R16 in a slam.
Delpo also gone against veteran Tomas Berdych.
Not that surprising either, Delpo has not done much at the AO and has underachieved down here, and is more or less just a dangerous floater in early rounds now.

I agree, in 2009 we saw Federer double-bagel Del Potro at the AO.
In that same year we saw Federer beat Del Potro in 5 sets at RG, and Del Potro beat Federer in 5 at USO.

[Derek41]

Originally Posted by hahaalot

I agree, in 2009 we saw Federer double-bagel Del Potro at the AO.
In that same year we saw Federer beat Del Potro in 5 sets at RG, and Del Potro beat Federer in 5 at USO.

Delpo was an absolute beast on that 2009 USO run, but doesn't do that well down here, for whatever reason.
In the meantime, an absolute blockbuster tomorrow night with Kyrgios vs Dimitrov.
Saw both of them live at the Sydney Fast 4's earlier in the month, they are very entertaining to watch live.
Picking NK to win it though.
Nadal should routine the short Argentine Diego Schwartzman, who is solid and compact, but no match for Nadal.
Cilic should win, but no guarantee against PCB, and the other match is pretty open between Seppi and Brit Kyle Edmund.