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Hey guys, so I'm new here, and as you can tell I'm a resident of the St. Louis metro area. For my first post I'd like to ask you all this question: what will the future be like for St. Louis 10 years from now? Will the city finally stop bleeding population? Will the North side start to see a turnaround? Will we finally see the city re-incorporated into the county, and if so, how would that turn out? I've been thinking about what's ahead for a while and I just want to get some other thoughts on it. So what do you think is next for St. Louis?
These are very good questions and probably the best answer is "nobody knows." There are lots of things people are doing to improve services and amenities within the city and all of this is is overlayed on top of a trend of people migrating back to the cities across the country.
Personally my best guess answers to these questions are:
1) Will the city and county combine? Possibly. The city is regaining strength fairly quickly and parts of the county now appear to be stagnating. The easiest thing to do would be to hang together and pool resources, however politically difficult it would be. I don't foresee a full merger but likely a reentry of St. Louis city as one of the parts of St. Louis county. Will it happen in 10 years? I don't know but already, many services are starting to be merged. However, I would be surprised if 40 or 50 years passed and there wasn't a merger of some kind by that point.
2) Will the city stop losing population? I think we might still have a lower or stable population by the 2020 census and be completely turned around by the 2030 census. This will largely depend on how well the metro area is doing in general. If the St. Louis metro is attracting jobs and transplants from other parts of the country and keeping our own young people, then the city will do well. If the St. Louis metro is bleeding jobs and losing children, then the city will fair just as poorly as everybody else.
3) Will the north side turn around? In 10 years, could it be much much improved from now? Definitely. Will it reach levels of CWE attractiveness in 10 years? Probably not, even with the northside regeneration. Speaking of northside regeneration, we still don't have any firm plans so we don't really know what we are in store for. I hope we get blocks and blocks of row homes to repair the urban fabric that was destroyed with the "urban clearance" policies of the 70s, but its hard to say what it will all look like in the end.
4) Will there be surprises in store? Definitely. 50 years ago, nobody predicted that the semi-arid farmland of silicon valley would produce the greatest technological advances of the 20th century. Nobody predicted that the tobacco fields of North Carolina would be home to some of the largest banks and financial wealth in the country. Nobody predicted that Detroit, which was one of the richest cities in the US, would utterly implode. Nobody predicted that people would flee the cities but their grandchildren would flee the suburbs. In 50 years, the cities of asia grew from shantytowns to forests of steel and glass. In another 50-100 years, the great cities of the east coast will be under threat of extinction from sea level rise.
The future is crazy but very exciting at the same time.
I encourage you to look at these two sites: http://nextstl.com/
Next STL is a blog that discusses major political, urban planning, and development happening in our area.
Oooh big questions, and not so easy to answer. However, I'll give you a rundown of my personal predictions.
Downtown: I believe downtown will continue to improve. Since I moved to St. Louis the first time in 2006, I've seen huge improvements on the whole.
North St. Louis: I believe that certain areas will start to see gentrification, but on the whole, I don't see any huge changes unless McKee / McEagle / Blairmont / Northside Regeneration (or whatever they want to be known as right now) gets their act together and actually implements their initial plans. However, I think that Old North will continue to improve, as will some of the neighborhoods with close proximity to the CWE, etc. Unless the rest of it gets a huge en masse overhaul though, I don't see any change to the current problems and population loss.
Re-Incorporation: I don't think it will happen. I think it should happen, but I doubt the County would ever agree to it. I don't think they would see it as a benefit to them. I think it would benefit the City if it happened, though.
Overall, I think there is hope for urban / city areas, which is why I am confident that the city will see a turn around on the whole with regards to population loss. I don't see masses of people moving to the city any time soon, but I don't think we'll see the massive losses that the city has experienced over the past few decades continue. Also, if the city is able to further it's public transport network (street cars, etc), I believe it will attract even more people out of the County who want to lead a more urban lifestyle.
One place I'm really scared for is North County though. While inner- North County municipalities (Jennings, Dellwood, Bellefontaine Neighbors, Riverview, etc etc) have seen major problems, in addition to unincorporated Spanish Lake, I'm honestly scared that their problems will eventually bleed over into the remaining 'nice' areas of NoCo (Florissant, Hazelwood, Ferguson, Calverton Park, etc). There is a lot to love about North County still, but I'm worried that it's current 'image' on the whole, will be the decline of it all. I sincerely hope I'm wrong about this!
Metro Area: General stagnation, but with internal changes (outlined below).
City: Will stop losing population, but won't see any significant gains until 2030. The neighborhoods that are improving right now will achieve full gentrification, with particular success in the Grove (will probably achieve CWE status). The north side will be better than it is now, but that's still not saying much. The best we can hope for is for Old North stabilization to spread out to surrounding areas or that McKee's project will actually work. Downtown will continue its trend toward a more residential/entertainment area than a central business district as more companies leave for the suburbs and rehabbers turn their offices into apartments.
County: Overall decline. Population will probably start dropping as the exodus to St. Charles County continues. The entirety of North County will succumb to the inner suburbs' problems and the whole area will be a sinking ship within about 5 years. West County and South County will remain stable, but stagnant. The County's best hope is to retrofit the inner suburbs to create a more urban environment that will attract a younger demographic. Will they do it? Probably not.
St. Charles County: Will continue to grow and prosper at the County's expense, but not as quickly as in previous decades due to very low in-migration rates to the metro area.
Metro East: I'm not familiar enough to give a prediction. Maybe someone else can chime in here.
The city's big demographic problem is one of, well, demographics. The city is gaining population in terms of young professionals, and doing a very good job of that. But the population is losing is young families. Population growth comes from keeping young families, and until the schools change that will not change.
Economically, this is great. The city's economic will continue to grow, but driving by a tech and biotech sector that might be something unique in the United States very soon. St Louis could easily be the top tech city outside of California within 10 years. If this happens, expect some severe gentrification along the central corridor. 10 years from now, I could easily see the near north becoming a tech gentrification battleground along the lines of the Mission district in San Francisco now.
St Louis County: Such a question mark. If the city flourishes economically, the county will benefit from young families moving outwards. I am not sure where they will move, though it will probably not be areas west of 270. Ferguson is on a high trajectory right now, Jennings is doing much better lately. Normandy and Berkeley are struggling. The balkins have become interesting, as they are not really financially capable of staying incorporated much longer. If those little cities start unincorporating or merging, that might create some positive change in those areas.
St Charles County: East St Charles County is starting to suffer from the same issues that plagued North County during white flight. People are moving out farther still, leaving holes in the St Charles housing market. St Charles County is going to need new residents from West and Central County, because they are running out of new residents from North County. And unfortunately, West County residents are moving to west St Charles County (Lake St Louis, Wentzville, etc) or skipping St Charles altogether and heading out to Lincoln County. Meanwhile, east St Charles County is bleeding to west St Charles County which is bleeding to Lincoln County.
Florissant is so very affordable that it *should* attract young families, but the school district lets the area down. Most of the other families we know send their kids private or homeschool (which is our intention also)
Having known teachers from Ferg-Flor, the district has two huge problems.
1) The long term effects of the merger with Kinloch School District and Berkeley School District brought down test scores, added safety problems, and created serious financial problems that required long-term cuts in staff and buildings. This was badly exacerbate by the airport buyouts that gutted property values in Berkeley and required abandoning Berkeley High. Doesn't help that the commercial property owners in the district keep defaulting on their property taxes (Ferg-Flor collects only 50% of the property tax due to them every year). That is why there are still such huge differences between McCluer North, McCluer, and South-Berkeley. McCluer, especially, is suffering because of the inability of the district to upgrade facilities there. South-Berkeley would probably still be in an aging out dated building too, like McCluer, if not for the airport buyout.
2) The very issue you cited, families keep sending their kids to private schools. The kids that leave for private schools are already the better performers, so you are lopping their test scores off the top and making it more difficult for the district to offer advanced classes. That's why the elementary schools in the district have so much better test scores than the middle schools and high schools.
The massive middle class renaissance going on in Ferguson (and the associated rise in property values) could change the future of the district. On the other hand, there is a very real risk that Ferg-Flor would be order to absorb Normandy and the former Wellston district. That would mean that Ferg-Flor would have a history of court ordered absorption of the Kinloch, Berkeley, Robertson, Normandy, and Wellston districts!
I was aware of the district mergers that occurred over the years and their negative impact on the district as a whole. Absorbing Normandy and Wellston though would be a nightmare!
Add Riverview Gardens to that list and it would be a chaotic mess
I hope the gentrification in Ferguson continues. I believe it's got a lot of potential.
Is Jennings really seeing improvements too? I never have cause to venture there, although I did go to the Target at Buzz Westfall not awfully long ago and the area felt fine.
Jennings has seen enormous drops in crime since County Police took over there. The school district, while still provisionally accredited, had its highest accreditation scores ever this year and one of its elementary schools was cited as the most improved school in Missouri. I am not sure how it is doing economically, but those are both really good signs for the area.
Taken as a whole, The St Louis Metro will continue to decline. That is, relative to the top tier of American cities.
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