Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
It wouldn't surprise me if the City were reconsidering its bid to re-enter the County. I think a lot of people are starting to see the writing on the wall for St. Louis County and the City may not be so keen to jump aboard that sinking ship anymore.
I agree with dawn10am The city is slowly improving year by year, and the county is getting worse slowly each year, but after Ferguson I think the county's decline is going to start to rapidly worsen. I could also wager if trends currently continue with the city gentrifying, and the county declining. I could Predict in twenty five years hence there would be a well off city surrounded by poor suburbs in the county kind of like present day Pairs.
I agree with dawn10am The city is slowly improving year by year, and the county is getting worse slowly each year, but after Ferguson I think the county's decline is going to start to rapidly worsen. I could also wager if trends currently continue with the city gentrifying, and the county declining. I could Predict in twenty five years hence there would be a well off city surrounded by poor suburbs in the county kind of like present day Pairs.
Only parts of the county are getting worse each year and only parts of the city are improving. Neither is growing much if at all. In fact both lost population according to the last census. I would say north county might be toast thanks to Ferguson. The big population growth continues to be St. Charles County and Lincoln county. The recognized surge in murders isn't doing the city any favors.
^Yep, both lost population last census, but when you break it down further things seem like they could look a little worse for the county, despite the murder spike hurting the city. The city has been gaining a bit of wealth and things like % of residents with a bachelors degree and median income have been rising (this had a big jump not too long ago). Following this, quite a few nice neighborhoods that lost population are actually healthier as multiple renters are being replaced by individual owners. furthermore, a large portion of the city's losses is poorer flight from the north side into north county. While the county is gaining all of these poorer residents it continues to lose (which this effect and recent events might increase) wealth as you mentioned to St. Charles and Lincoln counties.
I agree with dawn10am The city is slowly improving year by year, and the county is getting worse slowly each year, but after Ferguson I think the county's decline is going to start to rapidly worsen. I could also wager if trends currently continue with the city gentrifying, and the county declining. I could Predict in twenty five years hence there would be a well off city surrounded by poor suburbs in the county kind of like present day Pairs.
I don't go outside the peripherique here too often, but there are some very nice and very, very expensive suburbs around Paris. I know you just said "kind of like" though, but hey, some St. Louis suburbs have set themselves up to possibly be the same way. The wealth distributions, west of the city $, north not so much... are somewhat similar though!
Only parts of the county are getting worse each year and only parts of the city are improving. Neither is growing much if at all. In fact both lost population according to the last census. I would say north county might be toast thanks to Ferguson. The big population growth continues to be St. Charles County and Lincoln county. The recognized surge in murders isn't doing the city any favors.
Population change isn't the real driver though because it can change for different reasons. In the city, it is smaller more educated households replacing larger family households with higher poverty rates. That is good for the city's bottom line. In the county, it's a combination of things. In some areas its poor replacing middle class families (pop up or down depending). In other more affluent areas its the aging of the community which leads to fewer kids (pop down). In others in the far reaches of the county it is new development on farm land (pop up).
What is more telling is household income. We can't get that for most municipalities because they are too small and the census suppresses the data for confidentiality purposes. We can get it by township though. Compared to city household income change from 1999 to 2013, 23 of 28 townships underperformed the city. That's city as a whole, not selection portions.
The areas that bucked the trend are Wildwood, Eureka, Valley Park, Kirkwood, Webster, Shrewsbury, Affton/Sappington.
Areas that dropped the most are north of Olive on the inner ring, North of Page outside of 170. That's no surprise. The surprise areas are places like Ballwin, Town and Country, Lemay, Manchester, Mehlville.
U-City, Brentwood, Clayton, Ladue, Olivette, Maplewood trended close to the city, but lagged a bit.
Any way you cut it, the County is looking more like the city and vice versa.
Population change isn't the real driver though because it can change for different reasons. In the city, it is smaller more educated households replacing larger family households with higher poverty rates. That is good for the city's bottom line. In the county, it's a combination of things. In some areas its poor replacing middle class families (pop up or down depending). In other more affluent areas its the aging of the community which leads to fewer kids (pop down). In others in the far reaches of the county it is new development on farm land (pop up).
What is more telling is household income. We can't get that for most municipalities because they are too small and the census suppresses the data for confidentiality purposes. We can get it by township though. Compared to city household income change from 1999 to 2013, 23 of 28 townships underperformed the city. That's city as a whole, not selection portions.
The areas that bucked the trend are Wildwood, Eureka, Valley Park, Kirkwood, Webster, Shrewsbury, Affton/Sappington.
Areas that dropped the most are north of Olive on the inner ring, North of Page outside of 170. That's no surprise. The surprise areas are places like Ballwin, Town and Country, Lemay, Manchester, Mehlville.
U-City, Brentwood, Clayton, Ladue, Olivette, Maplewood trended close to the city, but lagged a bit.
Any way you cut it, the County is looking more like the city and vice versa.
North county is no question.
But it sounds like the south side continues to have real problems:
Population change isn't the real driver though because it can change for different reasons. In the city, it is smaller more educated households replacing larger family households with higher poverty rates. That is good for the city's bottom line. In the county, it's a combination of things. In some areas its poor replacing middle class families (pop up or down depending). In other more affluent areas its the aging of the community which leads to fewer kids (pop down). In others in the far reaches of the county it is new development on farm land (pop up).
What is more telling is household income. We can't get that for most municipalities because they are too small and the census suppresses the data for confidentiality purposes. We can get it by township though. Compared to city household income change from 1999 to 2013, 23 of 28 townships underperformed the city. That's city as a whole, not selection portions.
The areas that bucked the trend are Wildwood, Eureka, Valley Park, Kirkwood, Webster, Shrewsbury, Affton/Sappington.
Areas that dropped the most are north of Olive on the inner ring, North of Page outside of 170. That's no surprise. The surprise areas are places like Ballwin, Town and Country, Lemay, Manchester, Mehlville.
U-City, Brentwood, Clayton, Ladue, Olivette, Maplewood trended close to the city, but lagged a bit.
Any way you cut it, the County is looking more like the city and vice versa.
I'd be interested to see those income figures if you have a link.
I will say I've been hearing lately about problems such as increased crime in deep south county, in areas around Lemay and Mehlville.
There are ways to allocate services, take the cost savings, and toss that into high crime areas if done carefully. You could combine similar caliber pds and precinct them at their current boundaries to get the same service and community feel. Toss the cost savings on the admin side to communities that need it. The more troubled communities could consolidate too. Then you've got two cost savings streams they can work with to beef up or start using other methods like different social support services.
The big issue aren't the Kirkwood and Webster sized munis. It's the really small ones like the Vinitas of the area.
Yeah, I would imagine the current PDs would largely be retained as precincts, consolidating the ones that sort of suck and keeping the good ones, and using the economies of scale to focus surge resources where needed. There's just no benefit to keeping the current system, except aversion to change.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicago76
Any way you cut it, the County is looking more like the city and vice versa.
I think that's a pretty good overview. Our region has issues, many of them the same issues, and we need a better way to solve problems as a region. Infighting is not getting the job done; it's just wasting resources, especially time. How much more development would we have in the city, and north/south county, if we'd already built, say, the North-South Metrolink extension instead of twiddling our thumbs deciding whether the county or city would pay for which parts, and which line would benefit the city vs. the county most?
Dutchtown is a mess, you've got problems in the Bevo area.
Dutchtown has been a mess since I think the early 90's, I still think while many neighborhoods in southcity have gotten better, from what I've been told Shaw TGS, ,TGS in the 90's where a lot worse I've been told from people who lived there back then it was common to find drug needles and (even crack pips sometimes) on the sidewalks. I think Bevo is going to be fine but more Bosnian immigration wouldn't hurt.
And what parts of south county are getting worse, is it just the perception of crimes?, or problems like vacancy and abandonment also??
I'd be interested to see those income figures if you have a link.
I will say I've been hearing lately about problems such as increased crime in deep south county, in areas around Lemay and Mehlville.
It's stuff I compiled as part of a research project for the census. Would be happy to share a map if you're interested, but the data is at the township level (the lowest level) and unlike a lot of the Midwest, where township boundaries are more tangible because they align with school districts, here it seems like they mean nothing to people. So just posting the numbers probably isn't going to help.
With respect to the bigger picture (STL County decline), IMO it boils down to location and housing qualities. Homes in that primary job corridor of Downtown-SLU/SLU Hospital-WashUHospital-Clayton-Olive/270 will hold up pretty well thanks to proximity. Beyond that in the county, neighborhoods need to be able to sell themselves on something other than "newest housing area with all the home bells and whistles preferred in the last 10 years".
Those things change. Post-war housing through 1969 was highly desirable at one time. Now it's not. Homes are bigger. They have more bathrooms, higher ceilings, avoid a split level layout, etc. The only thing keeping people in these communities is relative housing quality vs. the latest stuff. It's not schools. People with means can find a similar district elsewhere, and then the older housing stock district declines with outbound migration. I'm not saying 50s and 60s homes are awful, just that they're not as broadly appealing and we have a ton of them. If they're in a municipality in the middle of the action like a Kirkwood, Brentwood, Webster Groves, Creve Coeur, etc, then they're fine. Otherwise, it's a tough road. 70s housing stock is starting to see the same decline.
All of it happened up in North County first, because there was a visual change to the population. Whites move out for the next best thing. African Americans move in from the city. There is an obvious visual confirmation and people get scared and more leave. In South County its more subtle. More middle class white communities skew more poor and working class white. It's not as obvious, so it doesn't feed on itself as much, but it's happening. And it will likely continue to happen in places that might seem ridiculous today.
Take Ballwin. It's reasonably well off today, but its getting much older and income has dropped in that area relative to a lot of older county areas that are more centrally located.
The future is probably historic city neighborhoods, the central older suburbs and whatever the flavor of the month is in fringe suburban development. That will exclude a lot of STL County.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
