From Chicago to St. Louis?

[FrankMiller]

Originally Posted by Someboyelse

Crime rate is going to be worse than Chicago if you live downtown.

In fact, outside of Detroit, it's hard to find populations over 100,000 that are worse.

St. Louis named 2nd most violent city in America | FOX2now.com

You are about twice as likely to be killed here than in Chicago:
https://www.thetrace.org/2017/01/chi...-city-america/

Couple of problems.

First, this is basically terrible statistics at work. City boundaries are completely arbitrary and non-comparable from city to city, which is why definitions like Metro Statistical Areas exist. Refer to https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s...ables/table-6; St. Louis is only the 70th most dangerous MSA by violent crime rate (486 per 100k). Worse than Chicago (377) but better than Detroit (498). The rate in Milwaukee is 680, and Memphis is 1038! But even these rankings can suffer from differences in reporting, so they're far from perfect themselves. And if you insist on using cities, use the city he was actually talking about living in (Creve Couer), which has a violent crime rate of 93.

Secondly, where you live is not as important as lifestyle choices in determining the likelihood of victimization. If you're not dealing drugs or hanging out with criminals, that's much more important than your zip code. And we're not even talking about living in a dangerous neighborhood here, but merely in the same metropolitan area with dangerous neighborhoods. Unfortunately, basically every MSA has a dangerous neighborhood. The notion that you're in material danger because there's two dangerous neighborhoods 20 minutes away, instead of one dangerous neighborhood 20 minutes away, is a somewhat ridiculous.

Third, violent crime ranks somewhat low on your mortality risks. Your chance of being murdered this year is something like 0.005% for the average American, or I guess 0.010% if you live in a fairly dangerous area. Honestly, the fact that you would need a car in St. Louis is a bigger risk factor (0.012%) than the crime rate, given auto accident rates. (Your total middle-aged death chance would be something like 0.184%, for reference.)

I understand why you'd want to leave Chicago after a bad experience, psychologically, and there's probably no point in discussing anyone's psychology on the internet anyway. But from a rational perspective, there's no need to move cities, and crime stats aren't a useful way to rank metros.

[Someboyelse]

Browse through the boards and you'll see Frank has quite the history of blindly defending the metro-area. He clings to MSA's because the vast scope serves to disguise the violence and crime in the locations he champions.

Some points:

1. Frank's first link is dead.
2. By his own admission, my statement is correct ... St. Louis is more dangerous than Chicago.
3. Frank omitted the 100k population statement.
4. Frank didn't read enough of the thread to see the discussion had left Creve Couer and turned to the downtown area.
5. 2nd paragraph speaks for itself.

St. Louis does have good spots, and most them don't have people telling you what you should be worried about, or the standards you should apply to your own life. Most of them.

[FrankMiller]

Originally Posted by Someboyelse

Browse through the boards and you'll see Frank has quite the history of blindly defending the metro-area. He clings to MSA's because the vast scope serves to disguise the violence and crime in the locations he champions.

"Why do the same misleading statements keep getting rebutted with the same facts?" Using statistically consistent areas is not "disguising" violence, any more than naming St. Louis the #1 violent city is "disguising" all crime elsewhere in the country, or switching from ERA to ERA+ "disguises" bad pitchers. Is it so hard to discuss the actual pros and cons of cities without resorting to false or misleading sensationalism?

I believe this link should work correctly, if it doesn't just google "2015 ucr table 6": https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s...tables/table-6

[SJbust]

Originally Posted by FrankMiller

Couple of problems.

First, this is basically terrible statistics at work. City boundaries are completely arbitrary and non-comparable from city to city, which is why definitions like Metro Statistical Areas exist. Refer to https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s...ables/table-6; St. Louis is only the 70th most dangerous MSA by violent crime rate (486 per 100k). Worse than Chicago (377) but better than Detroit (498). The rate in Milwaukee is 680, and Memphis is 1038! But even these rankings can suffer from differences in reporting, so they're far from perfect themselves. And if you insist on using cities, use the city he was actually talking about living in (Creve Couer), which has a violent crime rate of 93.

Secondly, where you live is not as important as lifestyle choices in determining the likelihood of victimization. If you're not dealing drugs or hanging out with criminals, that's much more important than your zip code. And we're not even talking about living in a dangerous neighborhood here, but merely in the same metropolitan area with dangerous neighborhoods. Unfortunately, basically every MSA has a dangerous neighborhood. The notion that you're in material danger because there's two dangerous neighborhoods 20 minutes away, instead of one dangerous neighborhood 20 minutes away, is a somewhat ridiculous.

Third, violent crime ranks somewhat low on your mortality risks. Your chance of being murdered this year is something like 0.005% for the average American, or I guess 0.010% if you live in a fairly dangerous area. Honestly, the fact that you would need a car in St. Louis is a bigger risk factor (0.012%) than the crime rate, given auto accident rates. (Your total middle-aged death chance would be something like 0.184%, for reference.)

I understand why you'd want to leave Chicago after a bad experience, psychologically, and there's probably no point in discussing anyone's psychology on the internet anyway. But from a rational perspective, there's no need to move cities, and crime stats aren't a useful way to rank metros.

Mr. Miller while I appreciate your words, I'm afraid you've misconstrued mine. I'm not wanting to leave Chicago after a bad experience. If that was the case I would've left in October 2013, when I experienced two break-ins that same month.

I've lived in S.W. Atlanta (SWAT), Detroit, LA and Oakland, CA. I've worked in NYC for two years. I'm very aware of high-crime cities and how to conduct myself within their confines.

I said I wanted to leave the state of Illinois. My reasons were not provided. I simply sited gun violence as a frustration and although it is perhaps a factor, it is just one of several. Hell, I'm 55. It's time for simpler living and what I determine to be a better quality of life for myself.

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by SJbust

Mr. Miller while I appreciate your words, I'm afraid you've misconstrued mine. I'm not wanting to leave Chicago after a bad experience. If that was the case I would've left in October 2013, when I experienced two break-ins that same month.

I've lived in S.W. Atlanta (SWAT), Detroit, LA and Oakland, CA. I've worked in NYC for two years. I'm very aware of high-crime cities and how to conduct myself within their confines.

I said I wanted to leave the state of Illinois. My reasons were not provided. I simply sited gun violence as a frustration and although it is perhaps a factor, it is just one of several. Hell, I'm 55. It's time for simpler living and what I determine to be a better quality of life for myself.

Also it's great Missouri has some of the best firearms laws in the country or lack of them!

You do not need a permit in Missouri to carry a concealed firearm and a lot better self defense laws too.

[ZGare]

Fewest Crimes Suburbs Rank:



https://missouricurrent.wordpress.co...est-us-metros/

[mjtinmemphis]

Originally Posted by ZGare

Fewest Crimes Suburbs Rank:



https://missouricurrent.wordpress.co...est-us-metros/

Yeah. I tell everyone the crime thing is overblown in St. Louis and many places. It is tough to compare apples to apples.

[glamatomic]

Originally Posted by ZGare

Fewest Crimes Suburbs Rank:



https://missouricurrent.wordpress.co...est-us-metros/

The statistics this chart is based off, is for Metro Inner or Urban Core, per their website. So that is just stats for the relatively small St. Louis City.

Once the MSA is taken into account, St. Louis is perfectly safe.

Take a look at the other chart from the same website for the Full Metro area, for a more accurate analysis.