St. Louis County Population Decline? (St. Charles, Florissant: crime, neighborhoods, buy)

[lovethewest]

According to the 2007 estimate, St. Louis county lost 2.1% of its population (from 1,016,315 to 995,118). Why do you think this is? Granted, this could be inaccurate, but still, I don't want to see St. Louis County on the decline!

[STLCardsBlues1989]

St. Charles county gained 40k.

Every other county in the metro either gained or lost like 1000 people or less (basically held steady). St. Louis City has basically leveled out also.

[Brickmama]

Its attributed by white flight from North county to St Charles County.

[Keethler]

Do you think it is realistic to persuade some of those people fleeing to the exurbs to consider relocating to the city? I think, and Im sure most would agree, that if we strengthen the core of the city, both the suburbs and city would benefit.

[STL Aviator]

Originally Posted by Keethler

Do you think it is realistic to persuade some of those people fleeing to the exurbs to consider relocating to the city? I think, and Im sure most would agree, that if we strengthen the core of the city, both the suburbs and city would benefit.

I don't know if it's realistic but it would definitely be helpful. Cities in conservative areas tend to turn into sprawlsville as people seek to privatize their communities. When a region spreads out faster than its job and population growth supports, infrastructure and government cost per capita rises. Infrastructure in neighborhoods that lose population must still be maintained. Infrastructure tends to have fairly fixed costs that don't decrease in line with the population. This is one of the key factors that leads to rising tax and utility rates in many communities.

It was recently reported that the St. Louis metro area has the 4th largest sewer system in the nation despite having only the 18th largest population.

Saint Louis Beacon - Five things to know about MSD's multibillion-dollar 'Clean Rivers' program

In addition, the state of Missouri has the 7th largest highway system but is only the 18th largest state by population. Missouri has less than half the population of Illinois but more than twice as many miles of road. See page 12 of this document for a comparison with nearby states: http://www.modot.mo.gov/about/documents/2008FinancialSnapshot_Final.pdf (broken link)

So St. Louis and Missouri in general are pretty much the definition of unsustainable development. From an economic standpoint, changing that should be a matter of creating financial incentives for people to live in the core. Ironically, though, this is already the case. There is essentially a cost of living discount for residents of the STL metro area who live the city proper, provided they don't have school-age children. Clearly there are other forces at work here that are non-economic.

[STLCardsBlues1989]

A more dense city would certainly be better for the metro. Some people are afraid to move to the city. Some can't afford private schools or can't get into magnets/charters. I think eventually people will begin to realize that it does not make sense to live in Wentzville and drive to the city or even a near suburb to work.

[Keethler]

As a city resident who commutes to the 'burbs for work, I am an anomaly in St. Louis. I agree with the prior comment that there is a discount for living in the city...I could not afford what I can here when I was in Chicago (last year). I will tell anyone who is listening from the 'burbs that the city is absolutely safe, its as interesting as you want it to be, its as serene as you want it, its simply a great place to live. The problem is that most people dont experience it long enough to get past their pre-conceived notions. The thing that makes St Louis different form larger cities is that the interesting areas are not as obvious as bigger cities. You must spend some time here, look around, feel the city's pulse, and discover. Living somewhere that is turning around gives you a sense of life you dont feel in places that are already "there." e.g. burbs and mega-cities. When I leave Clayton at the end of the day, I exhale in relief when I enter the city limits once again.

[aragx6]

Sorry but the people feeling Florissant for Dardenne Prairie wouldn't move to the city if you offered them a mansion filled with money. BELIEVE me.

If we're going to work to strengthen out urban core we have to work on crime and schools. There are only so many yuppies and dinks to go around.

[johnamus]

Missouri estimates that from 2000 to 2030 the St Louis County population will decline from 1,016,300 to 956,817 representing a 5.9% decrease. It would be interesting to see a breakdown of where the St Louis County decline is estimated to occur. My guess is that the northern part will comprise most of the loss while the southern and western parts continue to increase or remain steady.

The state also forecasts that in the next 30 years St Charles County will overtake St Louis City County as the number 3 most populous county.

Here's the source: http://oa.mo.gov/bp/projections/fig2-5.pdf

[aragx6]

I never buy these census estimates -- they're very often wrong. I remember they suggested Chicago was going to lose population in the 2000 census, but they instead gained a decent number of residents.

And you know what? Maybe I'm completely wrong, but the day that St. Charles County overtakes the city is the day I eat my own arm. I don't believe this will EVER happen.