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A couple follow up questions if you don't mind. When you and your wife go out in the evenings for dinner around Beach Drive, are you comfortable walking back to the Old NE neighborhood at ~11:30p or do you need to drive the short distance to feel safe? Also, you separately mentioned both your son and the school system. Do you use / plan to use private schools in the area? Thanks again!
Well, since we're on 15th Ave, we're a bit of a walk from downtown so we generally drive if we go out at night just for the convenience of it. However, it is a walk or bike ride that we do during the day when we're looking to just enjoy the fresh air. I'd have no reservations at all about walking the dog at 2AM though, if I had a dog. I believe there is also an electric cab company downtown (almost a golf cart) that I've considered trying to utilize about in case I wanted to have more than one drink at dinner.
As it stands now I think we will utilize private schools when the time comes (~2 more yrs.) We seem to have at least a couple good options not too far away. I've actually heard my my neighbor with 3 kids that the public elementary school isn't bad here (to spite the stats you can find online) but we'll see. There has been talk about vouchers from the new governor- w/o getting into that discussion I'll just say I'm hopefully something happens because it would soften the financial impact of private school.
And, I totally agree with your last paragraph. Yes, there are places in Tampa Bay where you'll find miles of continuous safe areas; however, those areas are mostly made up of sprawl and cookie-cutter homes.
I should add that I don't mean to imply that the decision to ditch cookie-cutter-ville was an easy one. Buying a home in Westchase, perhaps in a gated area, certainly came up as an option. The housing crash left buyers with a lot of deals in areas like that. And the promise of good schools and at least a perception of greater safety is certainly compelling. And you know, who can really argue with those things?
However we had the benefit of renting in a more sprawl-ish area before buying. Before moving to this area, my hypothesis was "well, everything is only a quick car ride away so who cares where we buy." As it turns out, nothing was a quick car ride away and if it involved sitting in the car for 30 minutes or more, I quickly realized that we wouldn't be doing those things after work or even regularly on weekends. Now, most of what we do is in our own backyard and the only time we drive further is to get to the mall (westchase or international) or to go to the beach- both around a 20 minute drive. Since we don't do either of those things regularly, we're fine with 20 minutes.
The comparison is really very simple. In every big metro region, there are always the neighborhoods that are more "fun" (have more parks, nightlife, walking areas, etc.) but are gritty and crime-prone.
And then there are the neighborhoods that are less "fun", but safer and more VALUABLE (most human beings value the feeling of safety first and foremost). I have seen this play out in every major metro area I've lived in.
In the Old NE vs. South Tampa debate, Old Northeast falls into the former category (very fun but unsafe), while South Tampa falls into the latter (not as fun but safe). For this reason, the price of land in South Tampa is always higher.
In addition, I always look at resale value & quality of schools when I buy, and South Tampa is la creme de la creme when it comes to resale and public schools. Just drive around Old Northeast and see how many houses are being torn down to make way for new houses; that is always a sign of a good buy in terms of neighborhood. I don't see much tear-down activity in Old Northeast. In South Tampa, there's a house going down every single day, because that is where most (not every person) people want to live, whether they want to admit it or not. It's the most convenient place to live, it's the safest place to live while still being in an urban area, and it has spectacularly gorgeous neighborhoods.
Someone just demolished a house on my street today. They paid $400k for it in December. Just to tear it down. I live in South Tampa.
The comparison is really very simple. In every big metro region, there are always the neighborhoods that are more "fun" (have more parks, nightlife, walking areas, etc.) but are gritty and crime-prone.
And then there are the neighborhoods that are less "fun", but safer and more VALUABLE (most human beings value the feeling of safety first and foremost). I have seen this play out in every major metro area I've lived in.
In the Old NE vs. South Tampa debate, Old Northeast falls into the former category (very fun but unsafe), while South Tampa falls into the latter (not as fun but safe). For this reason, the price of land in South Tampa is always higher.
In addition, I always look at resale value & quality of schools when I buy, and South Tampa is la creme de la creme when it comes to resale and public schools. Just drive around Old Northeast and see how many houses are being torn down to make way for new houses; that is always a sign of a good buy in terms of neighborhood. I don't see much tear-down activity in Old Northeast. In South Tampa, there's a house going down every single day, because that is where most (not every person) people want to live, whether they want to admit it or not. It's the most convenient place to live, it's the safest place to live while still being in an urban area, and it has spectacularly gorgeous neighborhoods.
Someone just demolished a house on my street today. They paid $400k for it in December. Just to tear it down. I live in South Tampa.
Old Northeast isn't 'unsafe'... sure, maybe there is some crime, but there is also crime in certain areas in South Tampa. You can't generalize the entire area, that's like saying everyone in South Tampa owns a million dollar home.
Just drive around Old Northeast and see how many houses are being torn down to make way for new houses; that is always a sign of a good buy in terms of neighborhood. I don't see much tear-down activity in Old Northeast.
Seeing 80 year old historic homes (that are inside a United States designated historic district) torn down is a sign of a good buy???
Personally, I think it is a good buy when I see people buying old houses in need of help and spending a year or more restoring them to their original glory. To me, this means that people care about having a nice home and they value the historic qualities that cannot be reproduced with modern construction. I've seen many homes purchased and restored where it would have been cheaper to just raze it and start over.
Hyde Park is really the closest peer in South Tampa in terms of historical qualities and architecture. I do not know this area well but I suspect houses aren't being leveled there on a regular basis. I have seen several tear down/rebuilds for sale in other areas of South Tampa, and they are typically homes that lack uniqueness that were picked up cheap- sometimes not only due to the condition of the home but also the lack of desirability of the actual lot.
Crime is a complicated formula. The most perfect town in America, Disney's Celebration, had a murder recently. In fact if you start combing the news, murders happen in a lot of nicer areas. I've noted that these are usually targeted and not random- however, you really don't want a murder next door. For me it boils down to what I think the risk is of being the victim of a random, violet crime, given my lifestyle and the things I do. Honestly, given that formula, *MOST* of the Bay area is pretty safe. There are hotspots to avoid but those aren't the places we're talking about in this thread.
The comparison is really very simple. In every big metro region, there are always the neighborhoods that are more "fun" (have more parks, nightlife, walking areas, etc.) but are gritty and crime-prone.
And then there are the neighborhoods that are less "fun", but safer and more VALUABLE (most human beings value the feeling of safety first and foremost). I have seen this play out in every major metro area I've lived in.
In the Old NE vs. South Tampa debate, Old Northeast falls into the former category (very fun but unsafe), while South Tampa falls into the latter (not as fun but safe). For this reason, the price of land in South Tampa is always higher.
In addition, I always look at resale value & quality of schools when I buy, and South Tampa is la creme de la creme when it comes to resale and public schools. Just drive around Old Northeast and see how many houses are being torn down to make way for new houses; that is always a sign of a good buy in terms of neighborhood. I don't see much tear-down activity in Old Northeast. In South Tampa, there's a house going down every single day, because that is where most (not every person) people want to live, whether they want to admit it or not. It's the most convenient place to live, it's the safest place to live while still being in an urban area, and it has spectacularly gorgeous neighborhoods.
Someone just demolished a house on my street today. They paid $400k for it in December. Just to tear it down. I live in South Tampa.
This post is a little bizarre. At least for folks ~30 like me and the OP, I don't think there's any question that South Tampa has more people our age, and more access to lively bars, restaurants, and things to do. There's a reason why every "where should I live?" post by a single 20-something here is answered with "South Tampa." In addition, I've yet to see any objective basis for the proposition that there's less crime in South Tampa; and it made me chuckle that places like South Tampa, Old NE or Snell could be called "gritty and crime-prone." The whole premise makes no sense.
That said, setting aside the initial premise, I agree on three points here, which are really the things that make this such a hard decision for me.
First, for most folks in the bay area, South Tampa is the convenient neighborhood. It's an easy commute to most business centers in Tampa/Hillsborough -- which is where the great majority of working affluent people in the bay area work. By contrast, the good neighborhoods in Pinellas are inconvenient to most of Tampa/Hillsborough at rush hour. This obviously increases demand for South Tampa, but it's also the toughest thing for me WRT South Tampa: I work in St. Pete so the 'easy commute to Tampa' premium I'd have to pay to get into South Tampa is lost on me. But come resale time, I know there'd be significant demand.
Second, South Tampa gets a big win for schools. You pay for that to some extent with higher taxes (at least with respect to the tax histories for the houses I've looked at in South Tampa), but that tax burden is less than the cost of paying for comparable schools in St. Pete if you don't win the charter/fundamental/whatever school lottery. Again, this drives up demand, and again it creates a tough decision for us folks who are married but don't have kids yet. Even if I knocked up my wife today, we're talking 6 years and 9 months before 1st grade. A 6-7 year window is plenty long to hold a home before selling it without taking a bath. So if down the line we wanted to bolt for better publics, we can do that. But we'd have to deal with the hassle of moving, and we don't like the idea of buying now with the expectation we'd move in 6-7 years. (Of course, I might want to cash out the premium it costs to walk to downtown or SoHo if I had a 6 year old anyway.)
Third, as a result of the significant demand for South Tampa from affluent working folks, South Tampa held its value during the recession better than anywhere else in the bay area and is a safer investment. But a safer investment means worse odds of meaningful appreciation, and, in this case, the safer investment comes at a higher price. This is just personal preference, but at our age, choosing to tie up more of your money in an investment with lower expected returns isn't necessarily a great strategy. On the other hand, Pinellas county home prices continue to decline, so the expected returns are...?
Anyway, my confusion continues. The good news is that my rambling thoughts are almost irrelevant to our decision: my wife will find a house she "loves," and the discussion will end. Next showing in ~2 hours in South Tampa...
This post is a little bizarre. At least for folks ~30 like me and the OP, I don't think there's any question that South Tampa has more people our age, and more access to lively bars, restaurants, and things to do. There's a reason why every "where should I live?" post by a single 20-something here is answered with "South Tampa." In addition, I've yet to see any objective basis for the proposition that there's less crime in South Tampa; and it made me chuckle that places like South Tampa, Old NE or Snell could be called "gritty and crime-prone." The whole premise makes no sense.
That said, setting aside the initial premise, I agree on three points here, which are really the things that make this such a hard decision for me.
First, for most folks in the bay area, South Tampa is the convenient neighborhood. It's an easy commute to most business centers in Tampa/Hillsborough -- which is where the great majority of working affluent people in the bay area work. By contrast, the good neighborhoods in Pinellas are inconvenient to most of Tampa/Hillsborough at rush hour. This obviously increases demand for South Tampa, but it's also the toughest thing for me WRT South Tampa: I work in St. Pete so the 'easy commute to Tampa' premium I'd have to pay to get into South Tampa is lost on me. But come resale time, I know there'd be significant demand.
Second, South Tampa gets a big win for schools. You pay for that to some extent with higher taxes (at least with respect to the tax histories for the houses I've looked at in South Tampa), but that tax burden is less than the cost of paying for comparable schools in St. Pete if you don't win the charter/fundamental/whatever school lottery. Again, this drives up demand, and again it creates a tough decision for us folks who are married but don't have kids yet. Even if I knocked up my wife today, we're talking 6 years and 9 months before 1st grade. A 6-7 year window is plenty long to hold a home before selling it without taking a bath. So if down the line we wanted to bolt for better publics, we can do that. But we'd have to deal with the hassle of moving, and we don't like the idea of buying now with the expectation we'd move in 6-7 years. (Of course, I might want to cash out the premium it costs to walk to downtown or SoHo if I had a 6 year old anyway.)
Third, as a result of the significant demand for South Tampa from affluent working folks, South Tampa held its value during the recession better than anywhere else in the bay area and is a safer investment. But a safer investment means worse odds of meaningful appreciation, and, in this case, the safer investment comes at a higher price. This is just personal preference, but at our age, choosing to tie up more of your money in an investment with lower expected returns isn't necessarily a great strategy. On the other hand, Pinellas county home prices continue to decline, so the expected returns are...?
Anyway, my confusion continues. The good news is that my rambling thoughts are almost irrelevant to our decision: my wife will find a house she "loves," and the discussion will end. Next showing in ~2 hours in South Tampa...
I agree with your points. South Tampa does seem to be the first place members on the board recommend to 20-somethings and 30-somethings. I'm in the demographic, however, but it doesn't appeal to me. I'm not into the bar/party scene so the premium to live near SoHo and such is lost on me.
The public schools definitely appear to be better in South Tampa than in St Pete; however, my thinking is in line with yours (I can always bolt to great school districts, if need be, when the time comes).
St Pete is definitely more affordable, especially if you live outside of the Old NE (even if you're very close by in adjoining neighborhoods).
South Tampa seems to be the safer of the two, but St Pete, IMO, has more character, better walkability (including practical walkability - close to everyday amenities), and is better for bicycling/walking.
Well if you live in South Tampa and work in St. Pete, you would be driving against the traffic so the commute isn't as bad as it would be living in St. Pete and working in Tampa. Also St. Pete does have nice Pinellas trail for bikecyling folks, beats 4 mile side of the street on the Bayshore.
South Tampa seems to be the safer of the two, but St Pete, IMO, has more character, better walkability (including practical walkability - close to everyday amenities), and is better for bicycling/walking.
This is a pretty good point. Hyde Park and Palma Ceia in South Tampa were developed (for the most part) before 1945, so you have lots of older homes with character. The rest of South Tampa didn't start to pop up until after World War II, especially between 1950-1965, causing it to have more of a tract-home appearance. Old Northeast was, I imagine, a streetcar suburb from the 1900s-1930s, sort of like Seminole Heights in Tampa, so you get a lot of the same housing stock that you'd find in Hyde Park, Seminole Heights, et cetera.
It all comes down to what the individual homebuyer wants. Some people like Craftsman bungalows, while others like 1950s ranch homes. Fortunately, a lot of the housing stock in both areas appears to be well-maintained, though quite a few need some work just due to their age.
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