Are there signs of a Tampa Housing market recovery (Orlando: sales, foreclosure)

[boomer]

Here is a link to Governor Charlie Crist speech concerning insurance rates and taxes:

Tampa Homes - Tampa Florida Real Estate - Tampa Communities - Tampa Bay Realtor: Crist: Get ready, Florida is on the move (broken link)

[boomer]

Lately, I have noticed a small drop in the housing inventory for the Tampa area. On October 1, 2007, home inventory was at 46,048. On the January 21, 2008 the inventory dropped to 43,992. That is a drop of nearly 2000 homes in a 3 month period. Even with this promising data, I do not think more people are buying houses, but perhaps new construction is slowing down, thus not adding to the inventory numbers. This is what started the inventory mess to begin with. Being in the slow months of the selling season, I am curious if the number will continue to drop in the late spring to early summer.

I have also heard with record oil prices, the northern states are paying outrages prices for their oil/heating bills. This may convince more retiring baby boomers to move to the sunshine state. Just maybe the record heating bills will offset the increases of our property/insurance rates.

Here is the lastest inventory statistics:

Date Median Price Inventory

2008-01-21 $224,877 43,992
2008-01-14 $224,900 43,375
2008-01-07 $225,000 43,670
2007-12-31 $225,000 45,013
2007-12-24 $225,000 45,275
2007-12-17 $225,000 45,386
2007-12-10 $227,900 45,370
2007-12-03 $229,000 45,570
2007-11-26 $229,800 45,964
2007-11-19 $229,900 45,960
2007-11-12 $229,900 45,789
2007-11-05 $229,900 45,716
2007-10-29 $230,000 46,331
2007-10-22 $233,500 46,173
2007-10-15 $234,900 46,190
2007-10-08 $235,000 45,959
2007-10-01 $235,000 46,048

[spainbrit]

building has indeed slowed, people are taking their homes off the market or renting them, that might account for more.
Coming south to avoid high heating bills is not going to be offset that much, as our a/c bills are not getting any lower as we suffer from the high cost of producing the electricity. I still don't understand the slowness of the solar energy companies to get their feet in our door. I'd buy if it was easy, even if its a little expensive now. Worth it in the long run I'd say. I'd also pay more for a really 'green' house that is built with materials that will stand time and weather beating, and are really properly insulated and designed.

[SgtSlavedriver]

I got a little education the otherday from an economist who stated tampa will rebound a little quicker than the rest of the state due to the Superbowl early in 2009. While i dont see us at the bottome yet it looks like a brighter futer is ahead, I never would have associated the S-Bowl witht he realestate market but this guy is sharp and in high demand... I prefer to find the lining rather that bxtch about the rain.

[TampaKaren]

What interesting timing for this thread to come back to the top. Forbes recently rated Tampa #4 in Americas Riskiest Real Estate Markets --> In Pictures: America's Riskiest Real Estate Markets - Forbes.com. Media economics...

[BucFan]

I'll be buying in 2009, so hopefully that'll be the bottom of the market. Have been saving for a home for all of my professional life. Never owned a home before. Looking for a sanctuary away from rat race.

[Carolina_Girl08]

Originally Posted by BucFan

I'll be buying in 2009, so hopefully that'll be the bottom of the market. Have been saving for a home for all of my professional life. Never owned a home before. Looking for a sanctuary away from rat race.

So, why are you coming to Tampa then?

[BucFan]

Originally Posted by boomer

Forbes magazine has predicted that Tampa bay housing market would be one of the first markets to recover. I am curious if we are starting to see signs of a market recovery or are the latest reports just a reflection of the peak selling season?

HousingTracker.net: Collecting, Interpreting and Disseminating Real Estate Data

Real Estate Market Conditions: Tampa Bay Real Estate

The reason I am asking is because a builder living around my neighborhood had a 1,900 sqft house listed at $209,000 in January. It is now listed (same features) for $218,000. Why the increase in a declining market?

Boomer, saw your house on Craiglist at 189k. Real estate times must be really tough. That's got to be as low as you can go in that neighborhood.

[bentlebee]

Originally Posted by deckardc

I would take anything a realtor says with a BIG grain of salt. They aren't exactly impartial. Things are slow all over, even in areas that were never really impacted by the housing bubble. You have to pay attention to what is happening to the stock markets as a result of the subprime mortgage mess. It is starting to bleed over to other areas of the economy and there is only so much the Fed can or will be able to do to stop it. Even Wal-Mart reported earnings losses. If people are so strapped for cash that they can't afford to shop at the cheapest store in the country, there is a serious problem.

Unfortunately, the banks are making it harder to get a mortgage even if you have great credit and a healthy income. The greater Tampa area has one of the largest inventories per capita in the nation. Who is going to buy all of those houses if people can't qualify for the mortgage, including those with good credit? Not to mention that foreclosures in FL are skyrocketing. No one is going to pay $300,000 for your house when the identical one across the street sold through foreclosure for $200,000. I don't think prices have hit bottom yet. Honestly, I think this is just a lull before the storm. All of those ARMs are just starting to reset and it can take 120 days in FL for a foreclosure to be processed. The first half of 2008 is going to be ugly.

I agree. Only the foreclosed homes in my area have sold or the short sales and I was one of the buyers of a short sale this year.
I'm looking for another home to buy but to be honest I skip all the "normal" priced homes since there are many short sales to buy and since many ARM's have to reset, more short sale will be out there. IMO the bottom is not yet reached and if you don't have to sell, don't even list your home or you have to wait for a long time or be very lucky.

[boomer]

Originally Posted by BucFan

Boomer, saw your house on Craiglist at 189k. Real estate times must be really tough. That's got to be as low as you can go in that neighborhood.

Hi Bucfan, Yes, the market is really bad as I can not compete with the short sales and foreclosures. On top of that, the new housing market has dropped in price too. I had no choice but to lower it again just to keep it competitive. And on top of lowering my house for fifth time, My House, I have since added a new roof. Not much more I can do but pray for a blessing. Thanks for asking.