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Years ago there was chatter about the corridor between Orlando and Tampa becoming one big megatropolis. The growth has been amazing. All around Spring Hill has been busy too. Lots of new
businesses, road rehabs. There is no stopping it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by housingcrashsurvivor
Have you also noticed the negativity? Though, that could just be coming from one or two posters who might have five or more sock accounts each.
But just like I mentioned about, haha, Global Warming, the numbers don't lie. Not that stats can't be manipulated, but population counts we can be pretty sure of. As long as they don't double count socks, the numbers are good.
Without exception, every urban planning study I've read projects this area to grow Megapolitan, most say by the year 2040. Tampa is ideally situated as an anchor of a super region. Besides being already an established city with seaport, it's connected by 75 to Sarasota and north towards Jax and by I-4 to Orlando/Daytona and one day maybe by high speed to Miami. So it's not just linear as was the development between Miami and Lauderdale, rather it looks more like the hub of a tripod, directly linking three other major areas.
Here's a randomly googled study...
http://www.des.ucdavis.edu/faculty/h...gapolitans.pdf Dallas and Fort Worth converged in the 1960s, as Washington and Baltimore did two decades later.Today, regions with multiple cities, like Phoenix and Tucson, Tampa and Orlando, and San Antonio and Austin, are exhibiting the same pattern, only on a more massive scale.
Look at the example again. You said there are no buyers for location B. That is not what I posted. There are FOUR times as many people wanting location B, but because location B have even more homes available, then prices do not get driven up. Location A has only 1/4 as many people who want to live there, but because there are fewer houses to choose from, the prices go up. Supply and demand. When the supply is low you need less demand to overcome supply to drive prices up. When you are looking in areas with lots of land to build and lots of homes already there, then you can have a lot more people wanting to move there yet not drive prices up because the houses and availability of new homes outpace demand.....even though the demand is greater than the higher priced location.
You are talking in fisher price economics, yes at the very base level what you say its true, scarcity is a factor in determining demand, the same as any other factor, the supply/demand relationship as you stated makes assumptions which is that you have homogeneous consumer meaning same income, same preferences, also that there is no prestige factor to the goods, none of that applies. When we talk of value I am talking of what is a more desirable good in the market not "bang for your buck", I fully understand that a family of 6 with a budget of 300k would be far better served in areas other than ST. It is not my intent to say that ST is better or worse than any other area, I simply disagree with your demand/supply example.
Look at the example again. You said there are no buyers for location B. That is not what I posted. There are FOUR times as many people wanting location B, but because location B have even more homes available, then prices do not get driven up. Location A has only 1/4 as many people who want to live there, but because there are fewer houses to choose from, the prices go up. Supply and demand. When the supply is low you need less demand to overcome supply to drive prices up. When you are looking in areas with lots of land to build and lots of homes already there, then you can have a lot more people wanting to move there yet not drive prices up because the houses and availability of new homes outpace demand.....even though the demand is greater than the higher priced location.
In "location B" there's only enough demand to absorb 80% of the housing inventory for sale. "Location A," on the other hand, has people beating down your door to buy your house. It's really clear that "location A" is the more desirable neighborhood in your example.
In "location B" there's only enough demand to absorb 80% of the housing inventory for sale. "Location A," on the other hand, has people beating down your door to buy your house. It's really clear that "location A" is the more desirable neighborhood in your example.
Location A only has people waiting to get in, simply because of the limited supply of housing. Location B has four times as many people wanting to get it, but has ample supply available for them, so there is no wait. Supply/demand.
An even easier way to explain how price alone does not dictate desirability is this. There is only one most expensive house in Tampa Bay. Does that make that house the one and only house that people want the most? No. Supply and demand will affect the price more than anything. There are many variables which affect demand and that is where it gets difficult to figure out most desirable. There will always be people who prefer urban living if they have a choice. There will always be people who prefer suburban living if they have a choice. Within each of those there are sub-factors such as location, waterfront, golf course view, quality of schools, proximity to work and/or play and family, style of home, availability of homes, size of lot, with or without pool. The list goes on and on. So using the phrase most desirable really is not realistic. There are simply too many variables involved. What we do know is that the nicer DT Tampa becomes, with more offerings and better safety, the more likely it is for people to want to move there. So much of the Tampa Bay area has so much to offer in so many different ways, it is not like many other locations. One would be hard pressed to find a location which will not offer them everything they will need for day to day living. Employment is spread out so much here that one cannot isolate a main location of employment. If someone loves the gulf waters more than anything, then living in DT Tampa is probably not going to be their number one choice. If someone loves nightclubs more than anything, then Land O Lakes is probably not going to be their number one choice. Again, too many variables and so many places in Tampa Bay that offer so much.
Years ago there was chatter about the corridor between Orlando and Tampa becoming one big megatropolis. The growth has been amazing. All around Spring Hill has been busy too. Lots of new businesses, road rehabs. There is no stopping it.
A megatropolis can develop out of a city or there's even greater synergy given two nearby cities but this area really has, by its geography, most of the peninsula, aside from the Everglades, to develop while being contained by the coasts.
We have population growth, domestic, within the country and worldwide. And then we have the migration to Florida from other states. According to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth the USA is expected to go from 310 million in 2010 to more than 360 million in just 20 years in 2030.
Population growth (in net terms) in the Tampa Bay region will continue to be led by Hillsborough County, which is forecast to grow by 536,000 people between 2007 and 2035. Hillsborough County will account for one-third of the region's net population change...
I was in south Florida during their 30 years of major growth when earlier on I used to often see red tailed fox on the beach, up until I could no longer find free parking along the beach.
Even though I traded housing, that for this at the bubble's bottom, I still realized more than 6% annual return (that would have been closer to 10% annual at peak bubble--it normally tracks inflation, often figured at 3%, or a point or three above that) on what I sold because of the population growth & area revitalization (of which I was actively involved) during the time I owned there. I suspect the same thing will happen here, only this time, in 20 years, having no kids, I'll just reverse mortgage the place before I die, benefiting in that way and utilizing the house as a bond portion of the portfolio.
That should work out even better for me this time around because the bubble burst destroyed any sense of value to property so they've been selling way below normal market, maybe as much as 40% by what I could figure based upon price to rent ratios and CPI figures, or, for those who bought foreclosures, even by as much as 60%. For those who recently bought, that'll then be added on top of what will likely be the natural rise in prices simply by population growth. So I think I made the right move at the right time. Either that or I'll just have to make the best of this mistake: one of my many.
Location A only has people waiting to get in, simply because of the limited supply of housing. Location B has four times as many people wanting to get it, but has ample supply available for them, so there is no wait. Supply/demand. ... An even easier way to explain how price alone does not dictate desirability is this. ...
No sane person buys something solely because it's limited in supply. If "location A" and "location B" in your example were identical -- other than "location A" is smaller -- prices would be the same. All the people who can't find homes for sale in "location A" would just go to "location B." But that's not what's happening in your example. People are lining up to buy in "location A" and people in "location B" want to sell but can't find enough buyers. There is no question that "location A" is, generally speaking, more desirable than "location B" in your example.
To your other post (I quoted the first sentence above), price does not determine desirability. It's the other way around, and certainly there are more than those two variables at play in whether/where to buy a home. Pretty strong correlation, however, between average home price in a neighborhood and how desirable a neighborhood is.
No sane person buys something solely because it's limited in supply. If "location A" and "location B" in your example were identical -- other than "location A" is smaller -- prices would be the same. All the people who can't find homes for sale in "location A" would just go to "location B." But that's not what's happening in your example. People are lining up to buy in "location A" and people in "location B" want to sell but can't find enough buyers. There is no question that "location A" is, generally speaking, more desirable than "location B" in your example.
To your other post (I quoted the first sentence above), price does not determine desirability. It's the other way around, and certainly there are more than those two variables at play in whether/where to buy a home. Pretty strong correlation, however, between average home price in a neighborhood and how desirable a neighborhood is.
I think what he is trying to say is this:
Lets say there were 200 buyers total for location A and B.
Location A has 500 homes for sale and Location B has 25 homes for sale.
If based on the characteristics of location A and B and our buyers it is determined that 170 buyers prefer location A and 30 buyers prefer location B.
Less people prefer location B but the homes will be more competitively priced and sold because there are 30 buyers for 25 homes whereas location A has 500 homes which will more then satisfy its 170 buyers.
Always the fundamental basic problem in economics is supply/demand and how does this fit into the problem of unlimited wants vs limited resources.
Last edited by bavariantransplant; 11-21-2013 at 01:54 PM..
Lets say there were 200 buyers total for location A and B.
Location A has 500 homes for sale and Location B has 25 homes for sale.
If based on the characteristics of location A and B and our buyers it is determined that 170 buyers prefer location A and 30 buyers prefer location B.
Less people prefer location B but the homes will be more competitively priced and sold because there are 30 buyers for 25 homes whereas location A has 500 homes which will more then satisfy its 170 buyers more then enough homes to satisfy its 170 buyers
Always the fundamental basic problem in economics is supply/demand and how does this fit into the problem of unlimited wants vs limited resources.
Yes. I really don't understand why it is a difficult concept for some people. This just speaks to the supply/demand issue in ways that people seem to miss.
In the end, we are lucky to live in a place which offers so much in so many different places. One poster mentioned that here urban is more than just the DT of a bigger city. I think that is true. Take DT Dunedin for example. People can live right in that area and walk to many fantastic eateries, check out a club, stop off for some drinks, get some excellent ice cream, go to many festivals, pick up goods at the farmers market, acquire some beautiful art and catch the sunset over the gulf......all within walking distance. There are many places in the Tampa Bay area which could be considered urban in much the same fashion. The difference is many of these urban type places come without the crime which is almost standard in many city urban areas.
Yes. I really don't understand why it is a difficult concept for some people. This just speaks to the supply/demand issue in ways that people seem to miss.
Again you are talking basic economic theory, not the same buyers, not the same product it doesn't apply, how many of your 200 buyers can afford either properties in place A and place B, so for a better understanding into that specific supply/demand relationship you would need compare the occupancy rate of houses of the same average price or even total # of sales of properties in the same average so that you are dealing with people who could afford either or and made a conscious decision based on preference and not need.
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