Question on Tampa Bay home pricing pre-crash??? - to now - then future.

[SJNE17]

Let me offer a slightly different perspective: who cares? The market is what it is on the day you want to buy. If you're ok with the price and can afford it, great. If not, don't. Enjoy it till ya die, live in it, drink, be merry, enjoy friends and family and stop worrying about it. It's still cheaper than renting a hotel room 365 days a year.

It's a home, not a stock portfolio. In a retirement stage of life (which presumes what many who live in parts of Florida are in), do you invest wholly in dot com or biotech stocks? Then why look at a house as if it's supposed to have similar volatility?

[alaskan adventurer]

Originally Posted by SJNE17

Let me offer a slightly different perspective: who cares? The market is what it is on the day you want to buy. If you're ok with the price and can afford it, great. If not, don't. Enjoy it till ya die, live in it, drink, be merry, enjoy friends and family and stop worrying about it. It's still cheaper than renting a hotel room 365 days a year.

It's a home, not a stock portfolio. In a retirement stage of life (which presumes what many who live in parts of Florida are in), do you invest wholly in dot com or biotech stocks? Then why look at a house as if it's supposed to have similar volatility?

X2 We bought last Jan, paid asking price after looking bidding on other places for two yrs.
did we pay to much? who cares not going to sell it, I would rather be sitting on my dock in St. Pete than
sitting inside at my home in Alaska today, so it really does not matter if we paid to much

[JasonAnc]

Originally Posted by EngGirl

I didn't see anything about 1/3 sales being short sales or 1/4 of all sales being cash deals.
The reason I asked about your sourse is to see it myself. Everything I google are turning into articles put together by realtors with no back up info and I have little trust in their words.

I thought the stat about short sales is widely known? Tampa's been one of the worst markets in the nation for it for years. The precise number gyrates at any given time, but the metro's rank against others has been consistently low since the recession.

And the short sale thing just stuck in my head. The info is created by a national data tracking service called Realty-Trac, which is often used by the media as a reference.

I just looked, Tampa Bay area is at 24% short sales in the newest report. It's been going down precipitously all year as home valuations normalize, and the financial motivation to buy such properties has diminished as certain programs end. It was over 50% by most accounts at the beginning of this year, so it's been cut by over half. (This is the only 'new' local report I could find referencing it... In an article talking about how Polk County is the worst off in Florida now. Polk a Hot Spot for Distressed Home Sales | TheLedger.com)

The reduction in cash deals follows a similar trendline. Which makes sense. As prices stabilize (price appreciation slows or even fluctuates), the allure of a given market to such investors is going to diminish. They want to see big ROI on paper, before they even consider dedicating their capital to deals.

Otherwise, they'll just flip to doing new construction as the improved selling prices exceed the cost to build in some neighborhoods. Their capital can be parlayed into more profit via the ability to take out construction loans, and clean up selling buyers add-ons and customization.


Perfect time for me to sell and finally get my family and my little bit of money out of here.



Edit: Yeah see, the reports last month showed cash deals being 1/3 of the market too... This stuff moves around quite a bit, so I wouldn't worry too much about any specific number at any point. Comparisons to other markets is what matters. http://www.tampabay.com/news/busines...tember/2203093

[EngGirl]

Actually short sales are not that common anymore due to bebt forgiveness act not being extended I assume. So I wouldn't call 1/4 of all sales being short sales. Maybe it's me, but I find it hard to believe too (and I am following Tampa market for few years now).

[JasonAnc]

I'm not a realtor, but I don't find it hard to believe at all. Most properties bought or refi-ed from 2005-2008 are still going to be upside down, and housing stock in declining and half built neighborhoods, of which there are plenty, still will be too. The only places where the housing stock is "healthy" are well kept urban neighborhoods with constricted supply, like Palma Ceia, SoHo and so on.